Ted Craven - October

[Ted Craven]

My approach:

I'll try to pick races where at least 7 runners start. I use the Paceline Selection tool for a first crack at line selection, then carefully review EVERY horse for current form and whether the paceline selected makes sense. Horses with lines ranking well on Total Energy or BL/BL but who have NOT shown contentious running in the past few races in their current cycle (i.e. since last layoff break) are marked as either Secondary or Non Contenders.

I eliminate from the bottom up of the BL/BL readout until I reach 4 or 5 horses who ALL could win the race. Generally speaking, if a favourite below 2-1 ranks on top by 2+ BL points, I may single it. Greater than 2-1 or closely followed by another horse >= 4-1 I will bet both. A horse < 2-1 or so who is not on Top of my BLBL can be omitted in favour of the Top ranked horse and another horse in the top 3 BLBL.

A horse going at ~ 8-1+ is bet Win-Place.

I am only entering races in this Contest which I also bet with real dollars. I typically bet Win and Win-Place plus Exactas. An omitted favourite (per above) which ranks well on BLBL usually is included in an Exacta Box. Of the Top 4 ranked horses, I will try to include the counter-energy horse who is not otherwise bet to Win.

I will try to elaborate on any wager decision reasoning which goes either counter to my above guidelines, or is more nuanced than I could describe. (And sometimes I just goof and make erratic decisions ...)

Ted

[Ted Craven]

PRX October 21

Race 2
$50 Win 6
$25 WP 2

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race3
$50 Win 3-6

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race4
$50 Win 6-7

[Ted Craven]

KEE Race 9
$50 Win 2-5

[Ted Craven]

PRX October 21

Race 2
$50 Win 6
$25 WP 2

Loss.

31047

31048

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race3
$50 Win 3-6

Loss.

31049

31050

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race4
$50 Win 6-7

Loss.

31051

31052

[Ted Craven]

KEE Race 9
$50 Win 2-5

Loss.

31053

31054

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

2 points or questions

First do you think my readouts are so different than yours
only because I have not changed any settings and I use Val 4 mode
Or is it the fact that your rating every horse but spliting them to win and
ITM groups, were as I only am only rating your 5 win contenders

Seconly your thoughts on using such a poor pace line for horse 9 ?

31057

horse 9 line 1 ?

31058

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

I believe the difference in our rankings, using the same lines, is due to Val4 mode versus Default mode, yes, and perhaps the DTV settings. Here are my Config settings. It goes around and it comes around - on the long term, I am happy with the effect of the adjustments, and with Default mode. Val4 mode (and/or your DTV Min/Max settings) triumphed in this race!

31059

When I removed the Secondary Contenders completely, there was no change (whew!) which is how it is supposed to be (i.e. Primary group is ranked independently).

31060

Re #9 Gruenewald - I looked several times at this horse. There were only 2 line choices for this horse in today's 6f poly sprint: line 1 or line 5. Line 5 makes it look worse (worse Perceptor). In its last race, it had a steady gain of both position and beaten lengths from the get go, beating well more than half the field. It's 83 SR was the same as its last sprint (line 5) so not aberrant. It was not a Win contender, but I had it underneath in an exacta (5-2 / 5-2-11-9). It did finish a strong 3rd and was the most Late on the E/L graph, hence my main counter-energy horse.

31062

If a horse ranks in the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary Line Score, I have come to be forgiving of 'apparently' poor finishes if they showed some serious effort. There were plenty of other horses in that race who just showed nothing in their current form cycle, and were relegated to either Secondary or Non-contenders.

Anyway, that was my reasoning for using that last line for the #9. Comments?

I wish I had the #3 ranked higher :eek: Hope you had it!

Ted

[Bill V.]

Anyway, that was my reasoning for using that last line for the #9. Comments? Hi Ted. I see your points about the settings. Next about the 9 horse. I looked at the race from the last line I would have consider it, and maybe given it a plus within a zero but since it really rated poorly in the phase 1 TPR ratings. Using all the last lines ( as a contender selection) I see the 9 is the # 1 FF, but considering how far back it was I looked to avoid this line. I am weary of these big closers. Was the fast pace of race the reason or was the horse just the benificeray of passing a bunch of tired horses from that POR? . 31063 Seeing how the last lines rated I go to the next step and would have only looked at pace lines for the 2 3 5 8 and 11. I then looked for their best TPR lines at a comperable distance and surface of the last 3. I ended up using the last line for these 5 horses

31065

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Bill, a good procedural analysis!

I believe the performance of the #9 in today's race (3rd) proved that its grand closing style shown in its last race and 5th race sprints are for real, though today not yet Win-contender worthy. Today it closed in the same way to within 2 lengths of the winner. I felt it's counter-energy E/L readout (most Late, and consistent for how it disburses energy in a sprint) and its steady movement in the last race telegraphed this.

I could not make money from it today though. Again, the Val4 adjustments clearly improved the ratings of the #3 winner in this race. I congratulate everyone who got it!

Ted

[Midland333]

You have the right line Ted-----those last two routes really hurt him in regards to showing more early. I wouldve ran his other 2012 sprints against the contenders and that still wouldnt of helped just eyeballing it. Also, seven furlongs today might've helped.
He's a superb tri or maybe exacta horse but everything needs to be perfect fopr him to win a sprint.
I always need to have a good FX on a late horse for sure and if he can show at least a three or less FW I wouldve personally made a small ( very) win bet and a big place bet.
If his trainer can find another sprint at seven furlongs you'll see him show better early speed because of todays sprint and might get it done-----keep an eye on him

Mike

[Midland333]

this #9 horse also has one of the most powerful angles possible---he gained lengths and positions throughout his last race-----a really positive sign for sure


31066

[Bill V.]

Mike
I agree that the 9 could be used underneath

But as Bill Parcells great NFL 2 time superbowl coach says
"You are what your record says you are"

And to me the 9 is a horse that picks up and benifits from
tired horses. You bring up a good point about FX and FW
If the 9's last line was so great why was its Fx and VDC so
low ?

Looking at #9's pacelines the only win showing was that 7.0 CD race
I also see in that race it was on behind by 8 lengths at the 1st call
In all its failed sprint races it was much farther back

Here is what the chart for yesterdays race shows
Once again In a sprint it picked up the pieces and got third
but it is too far back to win the race

31070

31071

[Ted Craven]

Oct 26, Belmont

Race 3
$50 Win 8-6

31144

[Ted Craven]

Oct 26, Belmont

Race 3
$50 Win 8-6

31144

Win.

31147

[Bill V.]

Nice work Ted A Blue Star for you

31157

[Ted Craven]

Bel R8
$50 Win 1a - 5

(is there time ...?)

31158

[Ted Craven]

Bel R8
$50 Win 1a - 5

(is there time ...?)

31158

No Play. Official Off Time was 4:35, my post was stamped 4:36. (Lost my Win bet though).

31159

[Ted Craven]

PRX October 27

PRX Race 4
$50 Win 7-9

The early horses are compromised.

31166

[Ted Craven]

If #9 is a late scratch, cancel all bets.

[Ted Craven]

prx october 27

prx race 4
$50 win 7-9

the early horses are compromised.


Loss.

31207

[Ted Craven]

October 28

PRX Race 4
$50 Win 5-3

31208

[Ted Craven]

October 28

PRX Race 4
$50 Win 5-3

31208

Loss.

31209

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race 6
$50 Win 3-9

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race 7
$50 Win 4-7

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race 6
$50 Win 3-9

Loss.

I had to post (and bet) this selection in advance, based on ML odds. Based on bet-time odds (#3 = 3/5), I'd like to think I would have 'hid' the #3 and done #4 and #9 (#9 WP). At least, that's what I would advise someone else ...:o

31212

31213

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race 7
$50 Win 4-7

Change this bet to:

$50 Win 4
$25 WP 7 (@ 4 MTP, #7 = 21-1)

[Ted Craven]

Change this bet to:

PRX Race 7
$50 Win 4
$25 WP 7 (@ 4 MTP, #7 = 21-1)

Loss.

31217

31218

[Ted Craven]

PRX race 8
$50 Win 3-6

Chose #6 over #2, as #6 at least has a race vs winners, where #2 only won its maiden race last.

31221

[Ted Craven]

PRX race 9
$50 Win 3-5

31225

[Ted Craven]

PRX race 8
$50 Win 3-6

Chose #6 over #2, as #6 at least has a race vs winners, where #2 only won its maiden race last.

31221

Loss. Can't catch a break today ... :eek:

31223

[Ted Craven]

PRX race 8
$50 Win 3-6

Chose #6 over #2, as #6 at least has a race vs winners, where #2 only won its maiden race last.

31221

In this race for 2YO with several recent maidens graduates, perhaps a better analysis strategy was to use everyone's race against winners, where possible, rather than strictly best of last 3 which then included several maiden win lines.

Win bets would then have been #6 and #7 (again bypassing #2 for Win for reasons given above)

31224

[Ted Craven]

October 29 (Storm Day 1)
ZIA Race 10
$50 Win 7
$25 WP 3

[Ted Craven]

PRX race 9
$50 Win 3-5

31225

Win.

31284

[Ted Craven]

October 29 (Storm Day 1)
ZIA Race 10
$50 Win 7
$25 WP 3

Loss.

31285

31286

[buffaloxp]

hi ted
you miss the #6 i use best of last 3 total adj SR num pick contender
i come up with 6 on top,and have 3lb advantage on weight, just miss a contest,because is 20 full, but have $15/30/30 w/p/s on real money, this is my big payout on my life hit,so can you put the horse carry weight in the BLBL screen after VDC

thank
raymond
31287

[Ted Craven]

October 30 - back to the South-west

TUP Race 4
$50 Win 1-7

[Ted Craven]

BEU Race8
$50 Win 3-7

[Ted Craven]

BEU Race8
$50 Win 3-7

Win.

31314

31315

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 9
$50 Win 10-3

31320

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 11
$50 Win 8-5

31324

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 12
$50 Win 7-2

31325

[Bill V.]

Nice Blue Star on a 2.5 ML :)



31316

[Ted Craven]

October 30 - back to the South-west

TUP Race 4
$50 Win 1-7

Loss.

31317

31318

31319

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 9
$50 Win 10-3

31320

Win.

31332

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 11
$50 Win 8-5

31324

Win.

31333

[Ted Craven]

ZIA Race 12
$50 Win 7-2

31325

Loss.

31334

[Ted Craven]

October 31 (staggering to the finish line ...)

HAW Race 6

$50 Win 2-6

[Ted Craven]

HAW Race 7

$50 Win 8-6

[Ted Craven]

HAW Race 8
$50 Win 3-7

[Ted Craven]

October 31 (staggering to the finish line ...)

HAW Race 6

$50 Win 2-6

Loss.

31377

31378

[Ted Craven]

HAW Race 7

$50 Win 8-6

Loss.

31379

31380

[Ted Craven]

HAW Race 8

$50 Win 3-7

Win.

31381

31382