Pktruckdriver Octubre Selecciones

[pktruckdriver]

Twenty

[pktruckdriver]

Trying to start with a nice hit, but this 2 horse is 6/5 and not willing to play 100 to win on him , I will try the 4 and 8 horse with 50.00 to win

[Ted Craven]

Trying to start with a nice hit, but this 2 horse is 6/5 and not willing to play 100 to win on him , I will try the 4 and 8 horse with 50.00 to win

I understand your rationale for skipping the #2.

What was your rationale for not betting the next 2 nicely priced horses in your Top 3 BLBL?

30704

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

You mean the winner, the 7 horse, I know, but the reasoning is the segemant screen for the 4 horse, tied for 1st, 8 horse was 2nd , 3 out of 4 times, so value wise I choose them, yet right on the BL/BL top 3 was the winner, like your Mom has stated many times the 3rd Tier produces many winners.

I have found many prices using Segments Screen, but had also seen the workout on the 7 and almost choose him, but sometimes, you choose wrong.

Practice and knowing the track will help, as today was Muddy, a No No to begin with, but I thought the 2 might be vulnerable and that part of my handicapping was right, just getting the winner was not, this time...

[pktruckdriver]

OKAY, Caps off, well I am going with the the top 2 in BL/BL, leaving the current favorite the 7 horse , who is in 3 tier out for now, at 5/2 20 minutes to post, and the 4 and 6 are 25/1 and 5/1 , either would give me a blue star race, and I do need a few of them this month, as I am in this to do well and teach everyone, how to see what I do and do the opposite, just kidding if you're reading this still, and my Pacelines is best of last 3 comparable and Woodbine has been running long enough to get enough comparable lines


So at 15 MINUTES TO POST

50 WIN ON 2 HORSE'S

#4 20/1

#6 6/1


* Cover bet , 7/3,4,6, Key box exacta

This is aa 2yr old race and I should stay out, but RDSS has been doing ok with these, so trust the program

[pktruckdriver]

I lost again, no blue star, my 6 went down to 7/2, so maybe even if he won I may have missed a blue star, thou the 6 was 2nd, I played him to win. The 9 won at 13/1 and the 7 was 3rd, at even money, oh well...

Looks like I am down 200.00 to 1,800.00 , not going good yet, but I am not worried a winning streak worthy of me will be coming soon!!! ;)

[pktruckdriver]

Again , 2 yr olds, but again the program is giving a little value, if the 4 horse gets beat

50 win on 1 and 2

[pktruckdriver]

Lost again, 2yr olds are not good today, and I quit trusting the program, it had the 5 no where near being a winner, a big one at that, blew them away, just like my chances this month

300 lost 1700 balance

[Bill V.]

hello Patrick

I was wondering if you were asking too much of the 2 horse
I see no reason not to use the last line on this horse
The 4.5 ms statebred was nice and all but with only a 42 APV
and the poor effort in line 2 I feel line 1 would be more in line with this horses
ability

Not redboading because I did not bet this race
and I only looked at it after I knew the results

But I used phase 1 and for my contenders
and I get the winner in pretty good shape
ranked third

Not saying I'm right and your wrong
I just am going with what Doc often writes about
How 1 off pace line can alter the other contenders in
You have the winner ranked 4th but I question the 2 horse

Your comments ?

Thanks
Bill
30812
30813

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 4 and 7

Trying to beat the 2 horse, not sure but will try

[pktruckdriver]

hello Patrick

I was wondering if you were asking too much of the 2 horse
I see no reason not to use the last line on this horse
The 4.5 ms statebred was nice and all but with only a 42 APV
and the poor effort in line 2 I feel line 1 would be more in line with this horses
ability

Not redboading because I did not bet this race
and I only looked at it after I knew the results

But I used phase 1 and for my contenders
and I get the winner in pretty good shape
ranked third

Not saying I'm right and your wrong
I just am going with what Doc often writes about
How 1 off pace line can alter the other contenders in
You have the winner ranked 4th but I question the 2 horse

Your comments ?

Thanks
Bill
30812
30813

Hello Bill, great question, let me look and I may have had that one slide through , but actually it was within the last 180 days at this track, and a sprint, though 4.5 is a very short sprint, it was indictive of possible improvement , being 2 yrs old, look for the best line and think of possible improvent, these are 2yr olds , not 4-6yrs old, and they normally can improve a bit every other race, if on the upside, if not then you lose like I did today.

These critters are fickle and hard to pick the right side of their zig or zag, are going to improve or hit the wall, today I saw it boths ways and I guessed wrong both times. Oh well, lose and be happy.


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

The 2 horse did beat me, and the 7 was 2nd , again, going for value has beat me again, this is enough to send a guy into a tail spin, if it was anyone other than me, for me I have a couple of 40.00 horses coming soon, no problem, wait and learn, lol.


400 lost, balance 1600 :confused:

getting time to win,
Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Wow this is way out there, but the few horse picked by RDSS have some value again, tough to get beat so often in 1 day, so here goes again


50 win 12 and 2

patrick

Late scratch and 2 went up in odds, try this on for size

[pktruckdriver]

lost again :p


500 lost 1500 balance


patrick

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 7 and 6

The 6 is capable of a win here at a price, and jockey change may mean they want a win this time, it also has had recent SR to win here, the 7 has dual races wwith high SR in this class level, and should be a great price , if it holds.

The 1 horse has not shown he could run this fast, 4 and 5 also have much lower SR than these 2 , but the 3 horse is possible here, and I may use the 3 over my 2 in an exacta, we'll see.

[pktruckdriver]

My horse dropped last minute and in the gate, and to think I had my 1st Blue Starr winner, oh well, a winner and that will help.

[pktruckdriver]

100 on 6 horse to win

Sometime the numbers point to it, and this it does, if he can do what he did last out she wins easily so hopefully , the 2 horse will not improve too much, lol

[Bill V.]

My horse dropped last minute and in the gate, and to think I had my 1st Blue Starr winner, oh well, a winner and that will help.

Nice work Patrick
No blue star but a very good pre race work upand win price on a $50 bet
Now get on a winning road

GS
Bill

[pktruckdriver]

100 on 6 horse to win

Sometime the numbers point to it, and this it does, if he can do what he did last out she wins easily so hopefully , the 2 horse will not improve too much, lol

I did not get the winner, the 2 horse did win but I am sure I posted after the race was off, ( not paying attention), so if I did hit it , it would have been dis-allowed, so I guess this would still be a loss, as I know I had the wrong horse


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

I did not get the winner, the 2 horse did win but I am sure I posted after the race was off, ( not paying attention), so if I did hit it , it would have been dis-allowed, so I guess this would still be a loss, as I know I had the wrong horse


Patrick

Look like the post time for the race was 1:48, 4 minutes past my post.

[Bill V.]

Off time was 1.48
Patrick this is a non starter/
No bet

GS
Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Okay this is a race where you hope for a bounce, and since this is not NYRA or Socal, then maybe we can get a bounce, as the 7's last race had 104 SR, a for sure if any where near that race again, so I hope not, and if right then maybe my 1st Blue Star winner

50 win 9 and 6

[pktruckdriver]

I am ashamed, just a bit, at how bad I was this race, my 2 horse's may have been dead last, they were that bad. The 7 won and paid 3.60, not too much.


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

50 win bet 7 and 8


couldn't get sceen shot in

[pktruckdriver]

Hoosier , nevr bet here , so let me trust my P/L that I chose and see what RDSS gives me.

At 5MTP I will play 50 win 1 and 5

hope the 1 does not go down, and hidng the 7 because of track, hope I am right, buut still no Blue Star this race

[pktruckdriver]

lost

[pktruckdriver]

How could the 9 horse not be a play here


Let me go out on to the ledge of letting my inner gut pick one, and it tells me to bet it all on the 9 horse, if you look at 2nd line you see he won by 26 lengths, how many horses do this, here it is

50 win/place on 9 horse

Notice how I settled back into my comfort zone of wagering and I do a w/p bet, if I did this place wager last race I would have had my blue star horse, at 9.60 to place, just a thought.

[Ted Craven]

Patrick,

We used the same pacelines. Would you consider further sorting your horses into Win contender today versus not-for-Win contender today, say based on recent performance, forgiving 1 race after a significant layoff for the #8, but not 2 bad races for the #5 or #7 and discounting Turf only recent proficiency for the #2.

Here's what I got (before checking results - I did not bet it):

30930

30931

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

We used the same pacelines. Would you consider further sorting your horses into Win contender today versus not-for-Win contender today, say based on recent performance, forgiving 1 race after a significant layoff for the #8, but not 2 bad races for the #5 or #7 and discounting Turf only recent proficiency for the #2.

Here's what I got (before checking results - I did not bet it):

30930

30931

Ted I am thinking about this and was wondering to myuself before this race was run if I should have bet my plays as place wagers due to the higher odds, why because I truly felt that my picks were more likely place wagers, or a 2nd and 3rd place horse, ortherwise filling in the exotics.

I notice that when you make your screen shots you have it split into contenders and non-contenders, which basically means who can win and who will not , I don't do that , I hide non-contenders instead of keeping them on screen.

Should reconsider this?

[pktruckdriver]

Lost Again

[pktruckdriver]

looking this time to wager 50 win on 1/1a and 8 horse

[Bill V.]

Hi Patrick

I think for you using the split screen would be the way to go

Look at Teds lines for his win contenders

all 8.0 dirt lines except for the 4 horse , and its rated 4th
It sure makes it a neat clear packaged right ?

30933

The first thing I noticed about your race was the
wide spread in surface and distance and tracks of your pacelines

When I went through each horse to pick my lines I decided to pass
after horse 4 too many issues for 1 race IMO

all in all you just missed your horses ran 2nd and 3rd
30934

[pktruckdriver]

Lost, I was 2nd and 3rd again

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks Bill and Ted, I thought we had the same lines, but maybe Hoo is too toguh for me, as it just did 3 races and lost them all, yes I was close, I think all my bets were very thought out, and all had a chance to win and givee me a hit for this cycle, but I am now 1 for 11 I think, which is horrible, but is hitting last 9 races out, no of course I can do that and still make money this cycle, yet Belmont and Mtr are normally tracks I play this time of year, and SA and Kee/CD as back ups, but I have been trying new tracks and with some tracks beeing too tough for me, and it kind of confirms sticking to tracks I know and like, as RDSS does best there for me. Like tonight , I was 0-3, pretty bad, but not discouraging.

[pktruckdriver]

50 win on 2 and 4, hiding the 5 horse, and

[pktruckdriver]

Lost badly

[pktruckdriver]

Looking to win bet 50 on 1 and 11 as they seem to be live plays

[pktruckdriver]

Lost , 3rd again what a losing streak this is, but it is not affecting my picks, they will continue

[Bill V.]

Lost badly

Hello Patrick

You missed this race. The winner # 1 did not show
much more than this horse . but I have 2 questions

First what was it that you liked about this horse enough to
bet $50 to win?
Secondly, a few post back you said trust RDSS and the readouts
in that case would you say its highly unusual for a sprinter
to over come being 2O BL back at the first call?
look at the segments readouts
Does anybody track how far back at the 1st call their winners come from
in 6.0 sprints ?

30942


30943

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 4 and 12

screens later

[pktruckdriver]

Hello Patrick

You missed this race. The winner # 1 did not show
much more than this horse . but I have 2 questions

First what was it that you liked about this horse enough to
bet $50 to win?
Secondly, a few post back you said trust RDSS and the readouts
in that case would you say its highly unusual for a sprinter
to over come being 2O BL back at the first call?
look at the segments readouts
Does anybody track how far back at the 1st call their winners come from
in 6.0 sprints ?

30942




30943

Hey Bill, no I do not, but the segement screen clearly puts the 4 horse on top, and wiith the 8 length close in the last race and 77 SR, make it a play for me, you??


Sorry Bill I do hope I did not come off as being upset or annoyed, I am not , your help AND QUESTIIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOMED AND ENJOYED

[Ted Craven]

Ted I am thinking about this and was wondering to myuself before this race was run if I should have bet my plays as place wagers due to the higher odds, why because I truly felt that my picks were more likely place wagers, or a 2nd and 3rd place horse, otherwise filling in the exotics.

I notice that when you make your screen shots you have it split into contenders and non-contenders, which basically means who can win and who will not , I don't do that , I hide non-contenders instead of keeping them on screen.

Should reconsider this?

Patrick,

You should reduce the horse showing on your Analysis screens to only those which can win the race (i.e. 4 or 5 maximum). This removes the noise from the readouts and most times places the 2 or 3 horses which can actually win in the top ranks of whatever readout you favour, but especially the BL/BL screen.

If you intend to bet an exacta or a place bet including horses you believe will NOT win but can finish in the money, your choice is to either remove them completely from the Analysis screens then find a way to not forget about them - OR, group them as Secondary Contenders so they appear in front of your eyes in a different grouping. The remaining horses in the upper Primary group are the 4 or 5 you believe can actually win and are ranked only among themselves.

Try this for 20 races and see if it gives you greater clarity. Don't forget about the part where, despite the relative rankings of the horses, you determine if they have demonstrated the recent form to actually Win today against the competition; they may not be world beaters, but they only have to beat today's competition. In the above race, you have to admit that some of those horses in your list are really unlikely candidates to Win.

cheers,

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

i MAY BE GOING FOR THE LONGEST LOSING STREAK, OH WELL

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

You should reduce the horse showing on your Analysis screens to only those which can win the race (i.e. 4 or 5 maximum). This removes the noise from the readouts and most times places the 2 or 3 horses which can actually win in the top ranks of whatever readout you favour, but especially the BL/BL screen.

If you intend to bet an exacta or a place bet including horses you believe will NOT win but can finish in the money, your choice is to either remove them completely from the Analysis screens then find a way to not forget about them - OR, group them as Secondary Contenders so they appear in front of your eyes in a different grouping. The remaining horses in the upper Primary group are the 4 or 5 you believe can actually win and are ranked only among themselves.

Try this for 20 races and see if it gives you greater clarity. Don't forget about the part where, despite the relative rankings of the horses, you determine if they have demonstrated the recent form to actually Win today against the competition; they may not be world beaters, but they only have to beat today's competition. In the above race, you have to admit that some of those horses in your list are really unlikely candidates to Win.

cheers,

Ted

Yes, I will finish this cycle (not quick enough, lol) and try your suggestion , and you mark secondary contender on the horse screen shot, correct?

[Ted Craven]

and you mark secondary contender on the horse screen shot, correct?

Mark a horse as Secondary either in the horse header (the Contender? Win or ITM checkboxes) OR by right-clicking the checkbox on a horse's paceline, either in its PPs or in the Analysis section. You can also mark a horse a Non-contender by removing any checkmark from the horse header Contender boxes.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

50 win 4 and 12

screens later

Patrick,

Keenland Race 4 for 2 YOs had 3 First Time Starters, and the rest had 1 or 2 lines (one had 3 lines). Using an energy-oriented program like RDSS, you have VERY little info to go on in races like this - and the 3 FTS represent at least some kind of a risk of an unknown popping up (which the #6 did at $71.20). When using RDSS, I recommend NOT playing races with more than 2 FTS (unless you have to: Contest, horizontal bet) and being extra careful with a group of very lightly races 2 YO Maidens. You may indeed win a few of these races at good prices, but be prepared to lose a high percentage of them.

Why not consider picking a distance and surface (say, short routes, dirt; or medium sprints), and specializing in those until you can get the winner in your top 5 of that specialty 90% of the time. Don't just accept the automatic numbers blindly: hone your skill at identifying (at least a lot of the time) if a horse can Win the race or finish close, then include ONLY those horses among your Top 5 BLBL.

You are welcomed to send me the RDSS export spreadsheet of your next 20 races and I'll be happy to comment, if you like.

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

Keenland Race 4 for 2 YOs had 3 First Time Starters, and the rest had 1 or 2 lines (one had 3 lines). Using an energy-oriented program like RDSS, you have VERY little info to go on in races like this - and the 3 FTS represent at least some kind of a risk of an unknown popping up (which the #6 did at $71.20). When using RDSS, I recommend NOT playing races with more than 2 FTS (unless you have to: Contest, horizontal bet) and being extra careful with a group of very lightly races 2 YO Maidens. You may indeed win a few of these races at good prices, but be prepared to lose a high percentage of them.

Why not consider picking a distance and surface (say, short routes, dirt; or medium sprints), and specializing in those until you can get the winner in your top 5 of that specialty 90% of the time. Don't just accept the automatic numbers blindly: hone your skill at identifying (at least a lot of the time) if a horse can Win the race or finish close, then include ONLY those horses among your Top 5 BLBL.

You are welcomed to send me the RDSS export spreadsheet of your next 20 races and I'll be happy to comment, if you like.

Ted

Okay, will do this soon, let me do 1 more race and be gone today, thank you for your help, sorry for me losing like this, but I am not discouraged, why should I , I am a winner and will win plenty again soon!!!

[Bill V.]

Hey Bill, no I do not, but the segement screen clearly puts the 4 horse on top, and wiith the 8 length close in the last race and 77 SR, make it a play for me, you?? Sorry Bill I do hope I did not come off as being upset or annoyed, I am not , your help AND QUESTIIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOMED AND ENJOYED

Thanks Patrick
Its you guys who should get the thanks for you honest open thoughts
to my questions .

Now about horse 4 No I would not use this horse
Yes the last line is a 77 SR and it did close 8 BL
but Is this line indicitive of the horses ability No
Did you use this pace line, No

I have reposted the pps with the adjusted lines and the original lines
Something Doc writes about to do when looking at sprint and route lines.
Lets look at that 8 gain , The horse was beaten 16 in the stretch
it closed to 8, This is good ? or because the horse just loped around
in the route distance.

Lets look at the usual adjusted position and BL for this horse
in all its sprint races. See how far back it is at all it stretch calls
what makes today any different?

I see a poor apv and CR horse with only 1 plus race win long ago
I see no reason to use this horse
Just my opinion
30944

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 1 and 2

[pktruckdriver]

Lost Again, no more torture today, lol

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks Patrick
Its you guys who should get the thanks for you honest open thoughts
to my questions .

Now about horse 4 No I would not use this horse
Yes the last line is a 77 SR and it did close 8 BL
but Is this line indicitive of the horses ability No
Did you use this pace line, No

I have reposted the pps with the adjusted lines and the original lines
Something Doc writes about to do when looking at sprint and route lines.
Lets look at that 8 gain , The horse was beaten 16 in the stretch
it closed to 8, This is good ? or because the horse just loped around
in the route distance.

Lets look at the usual adjusted position and BL for this horse
in all its sprint races. See how far back it is at all it stretch calls
what makes today any different?

I see a poor apv and CR horse with only 1 plus race win long ago
I see no reason to use this horse
Just my opinion
30944

I am wondering whaat you mean by adjusted PPs, and as for the 4 horse I took a chance that maybe, AND IT WAS A BIG MAYBE, that it would wake up and run today, as we saw it did not, but it does seem clear that this months 20 race cycle and my attempt for finding value has been very poorly done, yet knowing the winners in these races were easy enough, but they did not pay enough to wager on, at 50 to win, maybe 100 to win, which makes me wonder...

[Bill V.]

Hi Patrick

You wrote this about the 4 horse from race 1 today at Suff.

Hey Bill, no I do not, but the segement screen clearly puts the 4 horse on top, and wiith the 8 length close in the last race and 77 SR, make it a play for me, you??

My screen shot shows the original lines in the upper block and the adjusted
PP's in the lower block

I am showing how that 77 speed rating and gain of 8 in the route race
may be a case of an over adjustment
and nt a true measure of this horses ability

The readouts for BLBL and the segments screen on RDSS are calculated from
the adjusted pacelines So even if you pick you lines from the original data
it is vital to look how the nubers are being adjusted this is a big point
some people here seem to miss when they mix distances for their pacelines
30957
Gs
Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Hi Patrick

You wrote this about the 4 horse from race 1 today at Suff.



My screen shot shows the original lines in the upper block and the adjusted
PP's in the lower block

I am showing how that 77 speed rating and gain of 8 in the route race
may be a case of an over adjustment
and nt a true measure of this horses ability

The readouts for BLBL and the segments screen on RDSS are calculated from
the adjusted pacelines So even if you pick you lines from the original data
it is vital to look how the nubers are being adjusted this is a big point
some people here seem to miss when they mix distances for their pacelines
30957
Gs
Bill

:eek: I am totally understanding, and this is an eye opener, great explanation, I must admit this was a screen I overlooked , yes I looked at it once in awhile, but never like you explained here, thanks.

PS: You think the numbers skewered if my setting are at 50% INSTEAD OF 100% OR LIKE OTHERS SET AT 15% in configure?

[Bill V.]

Patrick, you wrote

PS: You think the numbers skewered if my setting are at 50% INSTEAD OF 100% OR LIKE OTHERS SET AT 15% in configure?

I am the wrong person to ask about that. I never touch or alter any setting

Bill

[Ted Craven]

:eek: I am totally understanding, and this is an eye opener, great explanation, I must admit this was a screen I overlooked , yes I looked at it once in awhile, but never like you explained here, thanks.

PS: You think the numbers skewered if my setting are at 50% INSTEAD OF 100% OR LIKE OTHERS SET AT 15% in configure?

Patrick,

Choose the suggested Default Adjustment settings and leave them there. This way, you compare apples to apples over the long term. I do choose to limit the amount of DTV used in my adjustments to -15 DTV points up to +15 DTV points: this smooths out over-slowing or over speeding-up pacelines due to very FAST or very SLOW daily variants. You individual race mileage may vary, but over the long haul it will give you consistent results.

Ted

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick,

Choose the suggested Default Adjustment settings and leave them there. This way, you compare apples to apples over the long term. I do choose to limit the amount of DTV used in my adjustments to -15 DTV points up to +15 DTV points: this smooths out over-slowing or over speeding-up pacelines due to very FAST or very SLOW daily variants. You individual race mileage may vary, but over the long haul it will give you consistent results.

Ted

Ted

Thanks Ted, that iss what I went back to, as I tried out the 15% thing for awhile and it was not to my liking, and right now during the wonderful streak, one could say default is not working either, lol.

Now this is for a person I know uses this and maaybe he could help us learn fron this Yellow Manual page 14 , I think the Red and Blue lines now dod this just as well, or am I kinda of the mark with that thinking, it shows moves being made, but not if it was an actual Plus Within A Circle Move, I guess looking fuurther into when and how the move was made will let us know that, but now having the color moves available, it'll be easier to spot a move being made anytime during a race, including passing tierd horse in the rear of the pack, like I have done a feww time sthis cycle.

[dlivery]

Just to get things going keeps me focused on using this + or Plus within a zero is good way to get started on evaluating how the horse ran in it's previous races it sure paint's a picture if you can enter the horse,s line into r d s s.

I know from switching over from form to computer form past performances I still use the old (+) 0's in evaluating the horses PP's

[pktruckdriver]

PASS CANCEL odds too low and not positive50.00 win 1/1a and 8

I am trying to beat the 5 horse here, and maybe should be passing here, as I must also beat the other horses too, lol, but 6-1 and 9/2 are nice odds for now, they may change in 15 minutes or so. And with Jesse riding the 5 I am worried a bit too, and I should be.



Yes this is an official cancel

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 1 and 2

[pktruckdriver]

My 1st Bluestar race 12.80 winner 25 x 12.80 = 320.00

Thanks Dlivery

[pktruckdriver]

A very very tough race

60 win 9 horse and 40 win 10

I am also wishing to wager on the 11 and 12 horse too, as the odds are nice enough to do so, but will go with the above horses, all trying to beat the 6 horse, which I THINK IS BEATABLE, and the 7 horse a way out there from left field horse, who could sweep it up too.

Screens to follow

[pktruckdriver]

Lost Again, this time by a nose or less, still have not seen photo, but official is official :p

[pktruckdriver]

100 win on 7

You want to know why, okay this time I will explain it , not, lol.

I think this horse is getting better and really running it down and will run away in then stretch with this one too, if not he'll just miss.

[pktruckdriver]

I think my 2 bluestar horse, may need Judge's clarification

100.00 to win 7 9.80 winner total 490

[pktruckdriver]

I forgot , may need to look , I think I was at 18 before the day started if so then I am done, you think I would know this, I should


My bad I looked and started today at 14 races, 750.00 tough

[Bill V.]

Patrick
2 nice wins :D

In regards to Woodbine race 8
You need to post an analysis screen shot before 12.00 noon eastern Saturday
As long as your showing the winner

Just posting the PP's is not enough as per the rules

Bill

[pktruckdriver]

I am waiting to see if 1 horse will go up just a little in odds, as I really do not wanbt to bet the 2 and 5 horse as back ups due to low odds on my favorite horse here, it may mean a pass


okay here goes

50 win 2 and 5 I may need help that the 1 does not repeat or do better, then ...:(

screen later

[pktruckdriver]

Lost Again, should have done 100 to win on the 1, I'd made at least 280.00, but it would not have been a Bluestar

[pktruckdriver]

Patrick
2 nice wins :D

In regards to Woodbine race 8
You need to post an analysis screen shot before 12.00 noon eastern Saturday
As long as your showing the winner

Just posting the PP's is not enough as per the rules

Bill

I have posted in #63 2 screens the adjusted screen, which clearly showed me to look at this horse, like you stated a few days ago, this screen wiil help you decide to play or pass this horse, that to me is an analysis, even though it is called the Adjusted screen which I explain why I picked my horse, and IT IS A RDDS SCREEN SHOT, am I wrong here ?

Rule to my understanding below, is there an update I missed, if so , I am sorry and will post a new Rdsss Screen Shot.


12. Guidelines for explaining your analysis and wager decisions - the minimum requirement is that you post a RDSS screenshot (any screen, but typically screens you use in your decision process). No screenshot posted by 12 noon Eastern Time the following day means the race counts against you and you do not get credit for any winnings. Since the purpose of the Contest is to learn and improve by observing your own and others successful decision processes, Players are requested (though not required) to also post a few words explaining how they selected pacelines, identified Contenders, chose wagers from among their final Contenders, etc.

For example, you may identify your typical Configuration Settings in your opening post then omit those thereafter. You may identify, for example, that you typically use a given PSS (Paceline Selection Strategy) then only subsequently mention when you do something different. You may state, for example, that you use NewPace to get Contenders, then identify how you choose the horse(s) you wager on from those Contenders. For example, if you perform a Matchup analysis based on a Projected Pace, state which horse(s), which race(s) defines that Pace. You may find that your explanations become simpler, as you follow a consistent approach race after race, and some of your comments in earlier races may apply to the current race.

You may also be as verbose as you feel like (either before or after the race) - post as many screenshots as you like, give detailed comments on Contenders and Pacelines selected, attach a video if you like! At minimum, you must post a RDSS screenshot.

[pktruckdriver]

I was away from my laptop, and did not have access to RDSS, as it is only on my laptop,but as told , here is a RDSS screen, just in case my other one does not work, even thou it was my decision screen.

[pktruckdriver]

Can I get even with only 3 races left and down 740.00 under break even mark, well of course I can if I wait and wait and wait for the right race to come by and then pounce upon it like any carnivorous animal aquiring his dinner. Sorry if any Vegans were insulted in that remark, but winning this months Contest is highly doubtful , but 1 thing any one should take from this is to not allow a terrible losing streak to get you discouraged in any way, please, if you remember anything , remember that, ask others, they'll tell you , like Rmath, he too has some losing streaks, Bill V, thou we see very few of them, which is what happens when we get bettter and better, Doc does comment on losing streaks, and I think Bill posted here about it, once, maybe he will repost it again, but I think it had something to do about 3 losses in a row, then maybe a break is needed, not a hiatus, just a day or so, and do not start doubting your method, as it has worked before and will work again, some adjusting maybe, sure, why not, but basically when you have something that you are comfy with and has made you profits before, stick with it, and bear out the losing streaks with little doubt or emotional stress, and if you do you are on the right path to better days of horse playing, at least emotionally, and maybe fincially too.

This is my daily teaching for the day, no Follow up screen shots, I think people may be tired of them by now, if not then just say so and I will keep doing them and posting them to remind us of Doc's greatness and his team of Capper's who were there with him.

Rmath stated to me once I believe, he knew and met Doc and the gang at his seminars, I never had that priviledge, but it would be nice of them to post about Doc and Jim and the gang, tell us about how they were, as I am told Ol Jim had the best One Liners around, as well as being a great teacher, he was a better person, like so many here are now, or strifing to be. I just thought a word here and then, would be great in this format, stating picking this horse reminds me when Doc or Jim explained to me about , "this or that", and it still holds true today.

Well let me say congrats to the current leaders this month, I have slacked off been out of the last few months, trying new things, just a little, where, I am a W/P bettor, this contest has me readjusting a few wagering strategies and seeing how they will do, and they are not helping me, actually they took me uout of my comfort zone, and well I have not done too well, and I think I will be a little more focused, if possible, as I only download a card or 2 a day, and need to wait for the race to play , instead of forcing 2-4 or more races that I play , races , I may have not played real money on, but had contest on my mind and it shows, for this I apologize, yet, I was very close many times, and if wagered like sometimes do, I'd be happier, and some what , a little bit more profitable, as sometimes a show price pays well enough to profit with, and place bets too, but nothing pays better than a win bet, and the feeling of having picked the winner, it always gives me a small pleasure knowing I found the winner thru the program and my supposedley sound decision making ! What about you when you bet 1 horse and it wins, and pays above 8.00 , for me I am very proud, proud that I learned from the method and it works, yet it also loses too, and bottom line is roll with it when they come.

patrick

[pktruckdriver]

We have a manual that gives us what we need , the info necessary to pick better pacelines, and make winning choices. I have seen so many ways to pick lines, all various ways, some even going back past 365 days, even after a long lay-off, other go 6-9 lines deep looking for the line for todays current conditions, and this manual will help you take another look into your selection process, even thou I am still varying mine according to track and race type and class, and then other tracks, it is last line only, and yet even others could be best of last 3 comparable, if possible.

Question, am I doing too much and maybe should be focusing more on just the tracks that allow me to use last lines only , or pass the race, period. Yet doing this has been good, but it does not give the bigger hits that the other selection processes give you.

What do you think?

[Bill V.]

Patrick

I would not put so much pressure on finding the right
way to pick pacelines and which tracks are best to use the last line only

I follow this advice from the Dynamics manual
The trick is consistantly

31077

[pktruckdriver]

50 win on 6 and 8 if odds stay above 3-1 , otherwise , cancel, is this ok?

[pktruckdriver]

Winner Winner chicken dinner a 11.00 win , another bluestar

[rmath]

Congratulations on the blue star winner.
May you have many more
rmath

[Bill V.]

Solid Blue Star

31106

[pktruckdriver]

Let me say thank you Gentlemen, looking hard for 2 more, am I right to believe that this month when your 20 is over you are over, that if you do 21 -24 they would replace your 1-4 races you did, as in previous month's, or not ?? Just asking?

patrick

[Bill V.]

Let me say thank you Gentlemen, looking hard for 2 more, am I right to believe that this month when your 20 is over you are over, that if you do 21 -24 they would replace your 1-4 races you did, as in previous month's, or not ?? Just asking?

patrick

No Patrick

We are going with just 20 races this month

Once you do your 20 race cycle the month is complete

This is as per the Official October contest rules

31110

[pktruckdriver]

No Patrick

We are going with just 20 races this month

Once you do your 20 race cycle the month is complete

This is as per the Official October contest rules

31110

Thanks Bill, for quick response, that means I must be very vigilant for my last few races.

patrick

[pktruckdriver]

50 win on 2 and 3 , trying to beat the m/l fav the 4 horse, who could easily romp this race, but could also die at the line, or so I hope.

this wager is dependent of the 2 horse staying above 7/2 odds, othewise , bet is withdrawn, but let's not hope for that

[pktruckdriver]

Please cancel it went below 7/2


patrick

[pktruckdriver]

50 win on 2 and 4 , hope odds go up a bit on 4, as I almsot did , nevermind

[pktruckdriver]

Lost by 2 miles

[Bill V.]

Here is thewinner No #7 in your top 5 Patrick ? It looks like a solid choice Was this a hide? Did you make it as a not for win horse or did younot use a pace linefor it ? Bill

31116

[pktruckdriver]

Here is thewinner No #7 in your top 5 Patrick ? It looks like a solid choice Was this a hide? Did you make it as a not for win horse or did younot use a pace linefor it ? Bill

31116

Bill Bill Bill, this is very tough question that no matter what I say, the winner was there and I chose to hide him, the 80sr to me was not where this horse would be normally as it was far above what he noramally did, so no I did not think he would duplicate it or do better and went againgst him, this has worked well in the past, and I will continue looking at it this way, as when I am right, it normally pays well enough, but patience is necessary to find these, as earlier I hid other favorites, who looked better than this one.

Let me say thank you Bill for pointing this out , as it gave me a chance to explain my wicked ways of handicapping during this month of October, tRolling the few tracks I download looking for the Bluestar winners, and yes I am dissapointed a bit this month, but know this, I am moving on and getting better, and thanks to all of you out there helping me, you all know who you are, as I am very appreciative, even the ones who criticize me a little, it is all taken for what it is , encouragement, and I say thanks to you for it.

Stuff like this from BuffaloXP

thank patrick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hi patrick
2 week ago i cell my trainers friend in singapore, ask about how to look at paddock for the horse FORM, he said go to work at the stable 6 month, watch the horse form moning to night, you will know ,then i told him i use RDSS software, can rank the top 5 contender , he give me the idea to use the weight to pick if i good for the ranking

he said
bet the top rank horse with the low carry weight
low rank horse with hight carry weight is OUT
i will try this way for my contest now on and see how it work

but i see your 3 blue star winner all have weight advantage
10/19 WO R2=1 4LB
10/19 WO R8=7 4LB
10/24 BEL R1=8 3LB

Thank
raymond

Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
I think you do very well, you represented us here at RDSS very well, you entire process of finding contenders and then wagering the way youu did, it served you well, I was impressed.

I was curious thou , that you mentioned you use the weight as a way of helping to narrow down your contenders , may I ask how well this works , and why , you use it?

Your english is improving everyday, there is no misunderstanding of what you are saying , let me say great job.

patrick

[pktruckdriver]

50 win 4 and 12

[pktruckdriver]

I need to see if this was done in time, but if so then I nailed this one on the money A Bluestar

[pktruckdriver]

I made it by 1 minute

[Bill V.]

Nice work Patrick
That was very close
Make sure you post the analysis screen shot:)

Blue Star

31165

[buffaloxp]

Nice work Patrick
another bluestar winner, #4 have 7lb advantage and #12 have 4lb also, good to go to get next bluestar

raymond

[pktruckdriver]

here is my screen shot