Noddub92 October

[noddub62]

September contest was a bummer so I tryed Maidens for the 2nd 20 cycle and it was worse but a much needed exercise. DON'T PLAY THEM!

I'll be back in this contest!

Budman

[noddub62]

Rp r4 $40 w on 2, $60 w on 3
30710

30711

[noddub62]

Rp r7 $50 w on 8,9
30712

30713

[noddub62]

30722

30723

[noddub62]

I forgot to post my method:

Default settings, Val4. Best of last 3 comprable but I am sometimes loose on this. Adjusted SR and Perceptor. From here forward keep paceline selection to the current track (i.e. no shippers for last race).

I love cheap races and hate last time winners unless they have a big win and/or good works. I eliminate to my top 5 keeping the top TE and Priminary LS score. If they don't line up I'll eliminate to get 5 by BLBL.

I bet off of the ML for contests. I wagercap the top 3 or 4 contenders using the high & low odds, hidding if less than 2:1.

Race today:

RP race 6 $50 W on 3,8
30724

30725

[noddub62]

30737

[noddub62]

pen race 6 $40 w on 2, $60 w on 5
30750

30751

[noddub62]

Ct race 1 $40 w on 3, $60 w on 4
30771

[noddub62]

Ct race 9 $80 w on 9, $20 w on 7
30772

[noddub62]

30783

30784

[noddub62]

SA RACE 8 $40 W ON 7, #60 w ON 9
30789

[noddub62]

hoo r7 $60 W on 2, $40 W on 4
30851

30852

[noddub62]

hoo r10 $50W on 2, $20W,$30P on1
30853

30854

[noddub62]

:):):)
30859

30860

[noddub62]

RP R3 $60 W on 10, $40 W on 4

30945

30946

[noddub62]

RP R7 $40W on 2, $60W on 4

30947

30948

[noddub62]

30959

30960

all around them but no coins tonite

[noddub62]

Rp r2 $60w on 7, $40w on 5
30985

30986

[noddub62]

Rp r9 $60w on 10, $40w on 11
30987

30988

[noddub62]

:d
31003

31004

[noddub62]

Ct r 1 $50w on 8,9 hide 2
31018

31019

[noddub62]

Ct r5 $60 w on 4, $40 w on 1
31020

31021

[noddub62]

beaten by the hide & Lost by a DQ
31023

31024

[noddub62]

Tup r 8 $60w on 1, $40w on 8
31092

31093

[noddub62]

:mad:
I was running 1 & 2 but they backed up like a Louisana crawfish just before the finish!
31102

[Bill V.]

This sure does not look like a $6.00 horse

Easy To Be Hard ;)
GB

Bill

31103

[noddub62]

Rp race 4 $50 w on 9 & 12

I'm thinking that the 12 might go W-W ;)

31111

31112

[noddub62]

I'll take that blue star sir!:)
31117

[Bill V.]

Hey Bud
This Blue Star is for you

31118

[noddub62]

Rp race 6 $60w on 8, $40w on 9
31129

31130

[noddub62]

no stars today:(

31139

[Bill V.]

Hi Bud

here is the winner

31141

[noddub62]

Bill,

I went back and looked at my line selections and couldn't get the winner any higher. Did you get him/her in your top three & if so how? I used his best perceptor line in the last 3. Maybe that wasn't a comprable line but the line you highlighted was ranked lower. Any help would be appreciated. Hope all is well with you.

Thanks,
Bud

[Bill V.]

Hi Bud

Sure Lets work this race . I would have used line two

Let me go through my steps

First I know the 4 and 7 are scratched so We have to take this with a grain of salt

Its easy to manufacture winners when you know the results :rolleyes:
after the fact and when the scratches are known
Something you did not know

anyway here is my first step
find the top 5 TPR and top 2 EPR and LPR horse from the last line of all the horses
31146

[noddub62]

Bill, I did that and see that #6 Smiles is on top on the BLBL & VDC screen. What's your next step?

By the way I read your other post and let me tell you! Every since I've been on this site and its predecessor you have been nothing but a FIRST CLASS WINNER in the game of life, and you also win a horse race or two. Don't get down on yourself you are two good to have a personal pity party!

Oh and thanks for the help.

Bud

[Bill V.]

Now lets go throgh the horse

Horse 1 No line. Ever since it won 208 days ago
its o/4 beaten an average of 14.5 lenghts
No plus or plus within a zero races in last 4
Horse 2 Makes it as a top 5 TPR horse but I dont
want to use the 5.0 turf line or the sy line 3
Horse 3 Last Line Early

Horse 4 out

Horse 5 Non contender no Plus races at RP

Horse 6 You used Line 1 7.0 I would use line 2
a plus race recent and same 5.5 distance surface

Horse 7 Out

Horse 8 Same deal as horse 6 both the top 2 races are plus races
I choose to use line 2 because its at 5.5 furlongs

Horse 9 Non contender last 3 races all zeros

Horse 10 non contender 2 races at RP were zeros

Horse 11 Non contender last 3 races at RP all zeros

Horse 12 last line gets a good tpr but its 5.0 on the turf
line 2 is a Plus within a zero race but 138 days ago
I will use it but its a question mark
Horse 13 No excuse for the last line which is a zero
does show a place finish at 5.5 but seems to
do best at 7.0

Now I have my contenders and pace lines

Now I will look at the BLBL

[Bill V.]

Usually I don't have to get down to 5 horses
but in this big field i am down to 6
I have my issues with the 12

Its a wild early horse on the Early Late graph
The 11 is way below the rest on TPR
I will eliminate the 11

31152

[Bill V.]

I would go with the 13 and 6 I would use the 3 in my exacta under these two I would have bet $45 win on the 6 and used the 13 as my w/p bet I feel 5.5 is not its best distance but it could place

31155

31156

[noddub62]

Thanks Bill. That really helps.

Bud

[noddub62]

RP R9 $60W on 4, $40W on 8
31189

[noddub62]

RP race 3 $50 WP on #3
31367

31368

31369

[noddub62]

good to finish with a win. thanx Bill for your help!
31383

[pktruckdriver]

Congragulations of your 2nd place finish this month, awesome job, and thanks for participating in the tourney to help teach others,this is what it's all about here, teaching and learning.


Patrick

[noddub62]

Thanx P