barb craven
10-02-2012, 01:54 PM
My Way is the same as September, but I'll post it here again.
As I'm one of those that play in the moment and look for value, not necessarily the winner, I thought I would post my way of looking at a race at the beginning of the month. I tend to play the smaller tracks because the prices are better there, and as you will see as you read further, I don't eliminate down to the best five horses until after I have looked at all the RDSS screens because a good long shot might be missed . I don't usually post in here until about 5 mpt and make my bet at 0 mpt so it's impossible for me to put my reasoning down at that time.
I start by using the automatic line selection, best of the last three perceptor, and then go over each horse to make sure that is the line I want to use. I use the adjusted speed rating to do this. I sometimes will go back more than three races to get the line I think best represents what I think the horse will do today. For that I take into consideration the number of days back the line is. I'm looking for what he can do on similar distance and surface. I like to see it within 90 days but if he has worked out I will go back a little further. For turf, I will take his best line, within reason, but will go back further if I have to.
After I have the lines picked, I let RDSS take over. I look first at the POH screen. For the sprints, I pay attention to F#1&2, SC and TS, for routes I look more at F#3 and DCL. Next I look at the energy screen. Here I look at the Energy, FX, E/EP and TPP for sprints and Energy, FW, L/EP and TPP for routes. Unlike most I skip over the TPR screen to the Segments and look at the CBL and if it is a route, also the incremental matchup. Then in Primary I eliminate down to 5, sometimes I'm able to get to 4 or 3, then on to BL. I am a colour person, so on this screen I look for the hoses with the most red and green as I have been doing all along with all the other screens, This time I pay attention also to the corollaries as well as I have found them to be a very powerful reinforcement.
Now to decide who to bet on. If there is a strong early favourite and another who looks like might be equally strong, but coming in late, I will bet against the favourite and put a win, place on the next one, especially if it is in my third BL tier which I have found for me wins more often than not. If there are two horses I like, I will bet them both to win. Lately I have found a new thing to look for, coming from Rev. Bert, who looks for patterns in everything. We found that if you see a pattern of yellows show up at Finger Lakes, that horse will be in the money and often win.
There is probably more I could add to this, but this is the general way I do things. Having explained the way I do a race, all you will see in the September contest is the screen shots, more than one if I have time, but of course at least one.
Good skill everyone.
.
As I'm one of those that play in the moment and look for value, not necessarily the winner, I thought I would post my way of looking at a race at the beginning of the month. I tend to play the smaller tracks because the prices are better there, and as you will see as you read further, I don't eliminate down to the best five horses until after I have looked at all the RDSS screens because a good long shot might be missed . I don't usually post in here until about 5 mpt and make my bet at 0 mpt so it's impossible for me to put my reasoning down at that time.
I start by using the automatic line selection, best of the last three perceptor, and then go over each horse to make sure that is the line I want to use. I use the adjusted speed rating to do this. I sometimes will go back more than three races to get the line I think best represents what I think the horse will do today. For that I take into consideration the number of days back the line is. I'm looking for what he can do on similar distance and surface. I like to see it within 90 days but if he has worked out I will go back a little further. For turf, I will take his best line, within reason, but will go back further if I have to.
After I have the lines picked, I let RDSS take over. I look first at the POH screen. For the sprints, I pay attention to F#1&2, SC and TS, for routes I look more at F#3 and DCL. Next I look at the energy screen. Here I look at the Energy, FX, E/EP and TPP for sprints and Energy, FW, L/EP and TPP for routes. Unlike most I skip over the TPR screen to the Segments and look at the CBL and if it is a route, also the incremental matchup. Then in Primary I eliminate down to 5, sometimes I'm able to get to 4 or 3, then on to BL. I am a colour person, so on this screen I look for the hoses with the most red and green as I have been doing all along with all the other screens, This time I pay attention also to the corollaries as well as I have found them to be a very powerful reinforcement.
Now to decide who to bet on. If there is a strong early favourite and another who looks like might be equally strong, but coming in late, I will bet against the favourite and put a win, place on the next one, especially if it is in my third BL tier which I have found for me wins more often than not. If there are two horses I like, I will bet them both to win. Lately I have found a new thing to look for, coming from Rev. Bert, who looks for patterns in everything. We found that if you see a pattern of yellows show up at Finger Lakes, that horse will be in the money and often win.
There is probably more I could add to this, but this is the general way I do things. Having explained the way I do a race, all you will see in the September contest is the screen shots, more than one if I have time, but of course at least one.
Good skill everyone.
.