What you saw

[Bill V.]

Interesting popular horse

today 3 selectors bet race 3 from Parx
all 3 men had this horse as one of their bets
either win only or win/place It finished last at 9/1

My question to the group what is it about this horse that
made it one of your win bets or your only win bet ?

30829

[pktruckdriver]

For me you look at lines 3 , 4 and 5, all lines within last 6 months are tops here and this horse should romp these if she repeats these races, which she did not.

patrick

[JIMBOB1002]

Hi Bill. I decided on #3 as my top pick which was near the 5/2 range. Then #7 I believed was going to be below 5/2 so I decided on a win and place bet on my tier 3 horse.

[Bill V.]

Question for the group
Which pace line would you use for this horse?

30834

Now here are the other horses

[pktruckdriver]

Here I would use line 5 as it is the 1st route line and under 180 days, so fresh, it is also the horse's best line.

Line 8 is too far back for me


patrick

[Bill V.]

Horses

30835
30836
30837
30838
30839

[Bill V.]

Here are 6 7 - 9 10 11

30840
30841
30842
30843
30844

[Bill V.]

Here I would use line 5 as it is the 1st route line and under 180 days, so fresh, it is also the horse's best line.


Line 8 is too far back for me


patrick


Thanks Patrick

My contenders with the 8's 5th line
My question about the 8 will it run back to the line?
Its seems like a early horse but could not get on the lead against
turf horse's Its back on the dirt today I would like to see
something to support line 5
30845

[Bill V.]

The 10 is a scratch

[pktruckdriver]

Okay the 8 horse is on top, you showed us, but can he run back to that race, I think he does not need to, if he gets near the lead today he should be okay.

My other contenders

4 8 out 13 1st or 2nd this year already, that is pretty good, has class and been running on dirt at CD, 2 of last 3 races put in him in it here, if 8 does not run his best.

6 Could stay with these, but has a pattern of good race , bad race, and today is bad race day, can he change up and win, of course, and seems to have no problem with HAW.

7 Could be a false favorite, a few things point to it, has some speed and did well last 2 out, in srints, on poly, here at Haw, it does not have good record, maybe does not like dirt too well


9 last horse who's only good thing is he has finished 2nd in 2 races here earlier in the year, that is all, and those SR were pretty low, not in tune with the others here today, but horse for course is always a thing to look for.


So yes the 8/ 4,6,7,9 / all tri if swinging for it

[pktruckdriver]

Nice call Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Let us look at a few horse's here that when I used the best perceptor, last 3 comparable, and then when we use the last lines, and see how the race looks so different, and we musst decide which is the way to look at it.

1st a look at Last lines for all horses, bith BL/BL and segement screens and then the Newpace screen shot too.

[pktruckdriver]

This is where your expertise comes into it, and how you pick your lines, as I have read and been told by people here , that it is always best to use Last line as your 1st choice, unless it has a legitimate reason to be overlooked, such as troubled trip, wrong distance or surface, and even sometimes wrong track. Yet there is strong contigent that swears by the best of last 3 comparable too, as a horse may have a tendency to bounce , or do the good/bad race thing.

So Can we bet the 3 horse and 8 horse to win, maybe even use the 7 horse underneath, thus skipping these, the 6, 5 and 1 horse's ?


How bout some thought 's on this, it should be a good race to dissect, and it clearly has the 2 sides of paceline selection in play here.


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

BOTH BL/BL SCREENS

LOOKS LIKE THE 8 HAS IMPROVED, BUT SO HAS THE 7 IN THE SEGEMENTS SCREEN, AND THEN THE 6 TOO, AS THEY ALL HAVE AN 89 SPEED RATING WITHIN LAST 3 RACES

SO WHAT DO WE WAGER ON, 8 AND 7 OR 1 AND 6 AND i WILL DO THIS

1 AND 7 WIN BETS

7/ 1 , 6, 8/ 1,4,6,8 TRI 1ST AND 2ND


PATRICK

[Bill V.]

Hi Patrick

well with the scratches things change

I will say that the last line is very important
and should always be rated, BUT
I also feel that the best of the last three
is a better way to win

The top 5 TPR horses off the last line only
is a great contender selection method but it does not end there

Once I have the top 5 horses
I then use the best plus or plus within a zero race of the last three
lines for these horses only
I feel for me that this works much better
than

1. being locked into using the last line only
2. blindly using any line in the top 3 just because its the best
of any readout. I see lots of wild line choices from people who do this
They hit longshots but then lose 6 ,7 ,8 races in a row.

I try to use the best method I can to blend using good recent comparable
lines and the best of the last 3 plus races
This blending lets me win often enough to aviod the emotional damage of losing more than 3 races in a row
Doc wrote often that if he lost 3 races in a row he would stop bettting
until he could get his mind refocused on what he did correctly when he
was in the zone.

Only a 6 horse field so the top 5 TPR winning means little here
30882

[pktruckdriver]

Can we trust RDSS2, it has a 20-1 on top, he was 2nd last out closing fast, can he improve 3rd ever race, sure, do you think otherwise?

Do you skip all 2year old races, not a bad idea really, we'll see.

5 and 9 have best speed rating here at 79, way above the others, but 2yrs old improve vastly at times

win bets 4,9,10 all nice odds

patrick