Ted Craven November

[Ted Craven]

Ready for BC!

[Ted Craven]

Santa Anita November 2 (Breeders' Cup Friday)

Race 7
$50 Win 3
$25 WP 4

[Ted Craven]

Santa Anita November 2 (Breeders' Cup Friday)

Race 7
$50 Win 3
$25 WP 4

Loss.

31440

31441

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 9

$50 Win 2-4

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 9

$50 Win 2-4

Loss.

31467

31468

[Ted Craven]

Santa Anita Nov 3 (Breeders' Cup Saturday)

Race 5
$100 Win 9

31470

[Ted Craven]

Santa Anita Nov 3 (Breeders' Cup Saturday)

Race 5
$100 Win 9

31470

Win. (This was a freebie ...)

31489

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 6
$50 Win 7
$25 WP 8

31490

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 6
$50 Win 7
$25 WP 8

31490

Win.

31492

31495

(Nice double, too)

[Ted Craven]

SA race 7
$25 WP 5-4

31496

[Ted Craven]

SA race 7
$25 WP 5-4

31496

Loss.

31497

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 10

$25 WP 12
$50 Win 11

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 12 Classic

$50 Win 2-4

Going for the 2 prices in my top 3, but my exacta includes #5 Game on Dude.

31510

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 10

$25 WP 12
$50 Win 11

Loss.

31511

31512

[Ted Craven]

SA Race 12 Classic

$50 Win 2-4

Going for the 2 prices in my top 3, but my exacta includes #5 Game on Dude.

31510

Win!

31513

31514

[gardyloo]

I cannot get the same readout for the 7th race on Nov 3rd that you show in your examples
I have been using the small diamond next to NewPace to select running lines.
In the Breeders Cup Classic the automatic pace line selector picked in B/L
10-4-2-11, a ten cent Superfecta Box returned $176, made my day!
I haven't figured out how to get screen shots. Regards Art Crombie

[Ted Craven]

I cannot get the same readout for the 7th race on Nov 3rd that you show in your examples
I have been using the small diamond next to NewPace to select running lines.
In the Breeders Cup Classic the automatic pace line selector picked in B/L
10-4-2-11, a ten cent Superfecta Box returned $176, made my day!
I haven't figured out how to get screen shots. Regards Art Crombie

Art,

That readout was simply the result of my choices of who to leave as Primary Contenders and who to downgrade to Secondary. We both started off with the same auto-pacelines, if you used BLT/C (Best of Last 3 Comparable Perceptor), and used the same Configuration (Adjustment set) set as me, which is: all defaults except DTV Min/Max = -15 +15

My bad - I downgraded the winner, Mizdirection :o. He was indeed in contention on BL/BL.

I recommend you never just uncritically accept the auto-pacelines offered. Double check every horse for current condition, best ever performance, competitive paceline, surface preference, matchup surviveability.

Congratulations on the Superfecta in the BC Classic!

Check out these instructions about screenshots: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8335

cheers,

Ted

[Hoof 11]

Hey Ted, what is that CSR rating next to the VDC rankings? Would that be Comp. Speed Rating in New Pace or something else?

[Ted Craven]

Hey Ted, what is that CSR rating next to the VDC rankings? Would that be Comp. Speed Rating in New Pace or something else?

Yes, Composite Speed Rating (weighted final time SR from last 4 useable races). After a bit more testing for impact value and utility, it will appear in the next RDSS2 update (on Entries screen, NewPace and BL/BL).

Ted

[Hoof 11]

Good stuff, i always have a look at those ratings. That's a good idea putting it on the BL/BL screen, your one sharp cookie!

[Ted Craven]

Time to get back at it!

Nov 26

PRX R7
$50 WP 5

[Ted Craven]

PRX 9
$50 Win 8
$25 WP 7

[Ted Craven]

FL R5
$50 Win 8,10

[Ted Craven]

Time to get back at it!

Nov 26

PRX R7
$50 WP 5

Loss.

32260

32261

Despite the top ranked readouts, I judged the #2 as not fit to win today, and would probably do so again.

[Ted Craven]

PRX 9
$50 Win 8
$25 WP 7

Loss.

32262

32264

No explanation for the #1.

[Ted Craven]

FL R5
$50 Win 8,10

Loss. :eek::confused::eek::confused:

32265

32266

32267

It happens.

[Ted Craven]

Nov 28

BEU R7
$25 WP 9
$50 Win 6

[Ted Craven]

Nov 28

BEU R7
$25 WP 9
$50 Win 6

Win.

32308

32309

Nice exacta too on the #1A favourite and Early horse

[Ted Craven]

BEU R8

$50 Win 5,8

[Ted Craven]

BEU R8

$50 Win 5,8

Loss.

32310

32311

[Ted Craven]

WO R6
$50 Win 7,4

[Ted Craven]

WO R7

$25 WP 11
$50 Win 8

[Ted Craven]

WO R6
$50 Win 7,4

Loss.

32312

32313

[Ted Craven]

WO R8

$50 Win 3,4

[Ted Craven]

WO R7

$25 WP 11
$50 Win 8

Win :) **

32314

32319

32331

[JIMBOB1002]

Great job Ted.

[polambi]

32320

32321

Ted, don't have all the newpace screens for your races at Santa Anita, because I did not download that card. However, in your results, I noticed something interesting and quite familiar to me, since I work with Newpace a lot.
In that race 7th at Santa Anita on Nov 2, which was a route, the #1 horse won, and was E1 for Newpace (although the race was a route ).
In your next, race 9 on the same card, the winner was #6, which was L1 for Newpace.
Since I don't have your cards, take a look at those 2 races at Beulah, and notice how the winners had the edge. compare them with your NP readouts and see If you could have benefited by paying a little more attention to those readouts in your cards. Thanks again for your help.
Paul.

[barb craven]

Congratulations on a tremendous win in WO 7. $29.40 to win and $14.30 to place. Good catch.

[Ted Craven]

WO R8

$50 Win 3,4

Loss.

32329

32330

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations on a tremendous win in WO 7. $29.40 to win and $14.30 to place. Good catch.

Thanks Barb, and Jim. I added the PPs for that #11 horse in my original post above (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=86670&postcount=35), and will comment a little later on my thought process (have to attend to phone call first). Hint: it showed acceptable 'life' in its last race 3 weeks ago - up-close in its 2nd call and Stretch positions.

Ted

[Midland333]

i LOOKED AND LOOKED AT THE #11 BUT DIDNT HAVE THE GUTS OR SENSE TO PLAY IT.
THE KEY WAS THE LAST RACE AND THE MOVE HE MADE IN HIS LAST RACE---ITS ALL THERE FOR YOU AS THOSE MOVES ARE UNDERLINED FOR THE RACE INSIDE THE RACE---THEN AS YOU DID CORRECTLY YOU WENT BACK A FEW RACES TO SEE HIS ABILITY WHEN IN FORM---PERSONALLY, HAVING THOSE RACES MARKED MIGHT BE ONE OF THE BEST TOOLS IN RDSS.
IM JUST A NEWCOMER TO RDSS BUT I THINK THE #11 WAS THE BEST PIECE OF HANDICAPPING IVE NOTICED YET.
GREAT JOB.

[lone speed]

Great score Ted.....

In those Rdss readouts, are all contenders projected out to today's distance in the final analysis screen....I still remember a seminar where Jim Bradshaw was speaking in which he said that it would be best...Personally, I used both unadjusted and adjusted for evaluations in old Sartin programs..just wondering..

[Ted Craven]

Nov 29

AQU R8
$50 Win 5
$25 WP 2

[Ted Craven]

i LOOKED AND LOOKED AT THE #11 BUT DIDNT HAVE THE GUTS OR SENSE TO PLAY IT.
THE KEY WAS THE LAST RACE AND THE MOVE HE MADE IN HIS LAST RACE---ITS ALL THERE FOR YOU AS THOSE MOVES ARE UNDERLINED FOR THE RACE INSIDE THE RACE---THEN AS YOU DID CORRECTLY YOU WENT BACK A FEW RACES TO SEE HIS ABILITY WHEN IN FORM---PERSONALLY, HAVING THOSE RACES MARKED MIGHT BE ONE OF THE BEST TOOLS IN RDSS.
IM JUST A NEWCOMER TO RDSS BUT I THINK THE #11 WAS THE BEST PIECE OF HANDICAPPING IVE NOTICED YET.
GREAT JOB.

Mike,

You took the words out of my mouth! The last line move to the 2nd call and extending around the turn to the top of the stretch was sufficient sign of fitness for me to use the best of last 3 comparable (3rd back). In its current form cycle (i.e. since its 34 day vacation in September) it has been trying to win this race the last 2 outings and 3d back was a respectable closing finish against the fastest Pace of Race yet and against higher Allowance company than today - further signs of fitness). I can forgive one clunker (2nd back) but not more.

The odds made it easier to give a go on this one - and my standard wagering template led me to spread my unit into the Place pool (over ~8-1).

I think it's worth noting that it was entirely reasonable that the horse would NOT fire today - somethings you just never know, and that uncertainty is built-in to the very fabric of this game. But - as in poker (which I don't play, so it's just a metaphor I relate to) - if you want to play a hand, you have to ante up first: no pay, no play! There was a hightened risk the horse would not fire today, but the potential reward made up for that risk - and 2 chances to hit (i.e. the Place bet) or to mitigate loss, is a prudent risk strategy for me.

I thought it was not so much a brilliant insight, as a reasonable risk. And we have to take risks like this, or suffer death by bankroll attrition from short priced horses.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Great score Ted.....

In those Rdss readouts, are all contenders projected out to today's distance in the final analysis screen....I still remember a seminar where Jim Bradshaw was speaking in which he said that it would be best...Personally, I used both unadjusted and adjusted for evaluations in old Sartin programs..just wondering..

Yes - all horses PP lines other than as portrayed in the 'Original' screen are projected to today's distance and surface, and equalized by inter-track and daily track variant. Thus the comparison of horses to each other, and the Analysis screen Betting Line, all show adjusted and equalized ratings. However, like you, I would never do without seeing the raw unadjusted way the horse actually ran (i.e. on the Original screen) - I need to judge signs of its current form and suitability to today's race conditions, the early or late moves it made, its tendency to run Early, to Press, to Close, etc.

I think Hat had it right.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Nov 29

AQU R8
$50 Win 5
$25 WP 2

Win.

32340

32341

Just trying to find supers to help Hoof11 fund his new MS Surface tablet (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=86694&postcount=8) ;)

[Ted Craven]

HOL R3
$50 Win 8,9

[Ted Craven]

HOL R3
$50 Win 8,9

Loss.

32345

32346

RDSS is smarter than I am ...

[Ted Craven]

HOL R5

$50 Win 10,7

[Ted Craven]

HOL R5

$50 Win 10,7

Loss.

32347

32348

[lone speed]

Race #3 at BHP....

Great hit by Rdss....

I can see how one can " distrust" or be hesistant about the readout screen.......

First off...the times from the bullring track are usually slower and the mile and 1/16th distance is run around three turns.....

7 furlongs distance.....(this opinion is only from my own limited research thru the years...)


7 furlongs is really suited for a class horse who is a good miler or router..most would assume since it is run around one turn and is one furlongs longer than six furlongs that it is a elongated Sprint.

Malibu stakes at 7 furlongs...

Horses like Spectacular Bid and Ferdinand come to mind....horses like these two have great burst of energy or hidden energy....

Ps....I am not leeching on your readouts, just trying to condense my learning curve on the Rdss program readouts....

[Ted Craven]

Nov 30

FL Race 5
$100 Win #3

[Ted Craven]

Nov 30

FL Race 5
$100 Win #3

Loss.

32387

32388

I was pretty sure the #3 was going to get an easy lead, relax and stay the whole 6f, hence the $100 bet (plus I needed a good score to finish). Not in this race, though.

[Ted Craven]

FL Race 7

$50 Win 1,4

[Ted Craven]

FL Race 7

$50 Win 1,4

Cancel Bet (odds too low).

[Bill V.]

The 1 dropped to nothing
I just wasted a bet but the 1 did place :o

good call on the cancel

[Ted Craven]

AQU Race 8

$25 WP 6
$50 Win 4

[Ted Craven]

AQU Race 8

$25 WP 6
$50 Win 4

Had trouble submitting this. Will have to see Official Off time, and whether it was at least 1 MTP...

Ted

[Ted Craven]

AQU Race 8

$25 WP 6
$50 Win 4

For the record. Still waiting to see if this Contest bet counts (maybe too close to post time). Anyway, I bet it and lost. P&C has been pretty sluggish the past hour or so.

32392

32393

I think I may have a future career in Tri and Superfecta wagering, from the results of the past few days ... :eek:

[Ted Craven]

Had trouble submitting this. Will have to see Official Off time, and whether it was at least 1 MTP...

Ted

Official Off Time is 3:44pm, same time as my post, so the bet does not count in the Contest. I need 1 more bet to make my 20 races.

32394

[Ted Craven]

FG Race 7

$50 Win 3,7

[Ted Craven]

FG Race 7

$50 Win 3,7

Loss.

32404

32405