Bill V.

[Bill V.]

Looking forward to a good month for all

[Bill V.]

60 win 5
20 w/p 9

[Bill V.]

The 1 is a hide

$50 win 6
$25W/P # 9
Screens and comments

[Bill V.]

With a $80 horse winning the place bet would have been nice
Here is the winner

31574

31577

31576

[Bill V.]

first since the 4 was in the top 5 TPR last line only

here is how line 1 rates
31578
31579

with line 3

31580
31581

[Bill V.]

25 w/p 6 and 11

[Bill V.]

I blew it ! I typed 6 I wanted 7 :mad:

oh well
31821


How many times has that happened I'm thinking about the odds
and I typed 6 instead of 7

Lines
H1 Sus Line 1 +
H2 No form
H3 EP line 2 +
H4 No form 20/1
H5 MS win EP line 1 +
H6 press Line 1 (+)
H7 Sus line 1 +
H8 EARLY Line 1 +
H9 EARLY Line 1 +
H10 LO NL Early
H 11 Sus line 2 +
H12 Line 1 0 onlt MS win





31819

31820

[Bill V.]

50 win 2 and 6

I worked this race with Ray Buffaloxp


H1 No Form
H2 sus line 1 +
H3 No form
H4 Early line 1 (+)
H5 EP Line 1 +
H6 Press Line 2+
H7 EP Line 2 +

[Bill V.]

The 4 wins Ray gets the win and place :)
31824


My look Just not there this one
31823


31822

[Bill V.]

$50 win 8
$25 w/p #5

[chuckg]

That's how to do it Bill V. Nice $45 exacta there.

[Bill V.]

The 8 goes wire to wire and gets me a Blue Star
and the 5 placed :)
Here are my pace lines and ESP running styles

H1 Press Line 1 +
H2 No form
H3 EARLY Line 1 +
H4 Early Press Line 1 +
H5 E E/P line 2 +
H6 Scratch
H7 No form
H8 Early line 4 same distance +

Here is the segs
Notice all the runners are Early or Early Presser ESP energy horses
So who will take the lead?
Will anybody have any late energy to close and charge down the lane?
31968
31969

here is a screen shot just as the rounded the turn its 8 3 5
31970
Here is the results chart
31971

[pktruckdriver]

Looks like we had the same horse's, and see I do bet them Bill, as I am sure you do too. But only small amounts till I fine tune this winning machine ...

Best of skill for Nov

patrick

[Bill V.]

Good work Patrick
I hope you had a profitable day

With the proper contenders and pace lines you get good results



31974

[Bill V.]

That's how to do it Bill V. Nice $45 exacta there.

Thank You Chuckg
Speaking of Blue Stars
Please send me in a PM your snail mail address !
I have your Blue Star Prize ready to ship
to you !

[Bill V.]

$50 win 1A
$25 w/p #10

H1 EP line 1 +
H2 S/P line 2 +
H3 NL
H4 Scratch
H5 NF
H6 No recent dirt form
H7 Early line 1 +
H8 No recent form Early
H9 Early line 2
H10 Sus Line 2

[Bill V.]

The 8 wins and pays $19.60

here is the winner
32062
32061

32069

[Bill V.]

The way they ran
32071

[Bill V.]

$60 win 4
$20w/p 2

Gs
Bill

[Bill V.]

$50 win 4
$25w/p 6

Gs
Bill

32176

[Bill V.]

The 4 wins and the 6 placed

Here is the results The 4 and 6 pressed the Early 1 and 5

The 5 had just 1 MS win
but the 4 and 6 dominate the LP readouts
32179

32177

32178

[Bill V.]

$50 win 1
$25w/p 4
32187
Gs
Bill

[Bill V.]

here are my notes for the race
The 7 got the jump on my 1 horse and went wire to wire

I used the last line for horse 1
It is its best ever race
But it is the last line.and very recent with 2 works since that stakes race
I called the 1 an EP
I expected it to be just behind the 7
My thoughts were it catch the seven


My thoughts were the 7 and 9 were early
The 9 was eliminated because it would not out break the 7
I fully expected the 7 to break on top of the 1 but since the 1 had a better
F1 and 2nd fraction and EPR than both the 7 and 9 I felt it would press the 7 and win

It was a close finish but there was a bumping incident which caused the
1 to bump the 9 and lose a step
The 9 claimed foul on both the 1 and 7 but the ruling place the 1 3rd

My notes as I worked the race
BTW The 5 should not be on my readuts as I called it Ugly
I noted this but had already made the screen shot
H1 EP Line 1
H2 Sus Line 2
H3 EP Line 1
H4 SUS Line 1
H5 Ug
H6 Sus NF
H7 Early Line 1
H8 EP line 1
H9 Early MUs
H10 Press line 1
Earlys = 7 9
NTL 9 EMU 9 is out
F1 = 1 10 7 3
TT = 1, 10 4, 7
EPR 1, 10 4
My bets 1-4

32191

32192

32193

[Bill V.]

$50 wi5
25 w/9 1

[Bill V.]

The 5 gets me a Blue Star
32212

Here is the winner
32209

here are my readouts
32210

and the result chart
32211

[Bill V.]

$50 wi5
25 w/9 1

I made a typo
It appears like my bet was $50 win on the 5 and 25 win on the 1 and 9
You cannot bet
3 horses!
but I meant to type $25 w/p on the 1

By rule I would have had to take away the 1
and changed the bet to
$50 win on the 5
and 50 win on the 9

If the 9 had won I would have not taken the win
I would have scored the race a loss Just because I know I did not want the 9 at all

I tell everybody else so I have to tell my self
BE CAREFUL

[Bill V.]

$50 win 7
$25w/p # 6

[Bill V.]

$50 win 7
$25w/p # 6

The 6 did place but the 8 goes wire to wire

32247

[Bill V.]

25wp15
the 7 will pro run them down but i need some races

[Bill V.]

The 1 wins not much
32338
My notes
3+ F Starter 8000 race
have run for a claiming of 8000 in 2010-2012

Records and running styles
H1 6-16 EP7
H2 5-34 NF
H3 5-12 E7 NTL
H4 5-29 E/EP7
H5 10/23 E/EP6
H6 scr
H7 8-23 SP2

F1 = 17 3 Good bye 3
TT = 5 4 7
EPR = 1 7 3x
FFR = 5 4 1
The 1 is a sure bet got to beat the 7
so take the 5

32336

32337

[Bill V.]

4 $50 6 $25wp fl1130 race 9

[Bill V.]

4 $50 6 $25wp fl1130 race 9

The 6 wins
Here are my notes and readouts


Race 9 5.5 furlongs
3+FM NYbreds NW of a state bred race other than Maiden Claim or starter less than 15000 not considered

H1 4/17 P4
H2B 6/30 E/EP6 NTL
H4 3/14 E4 NTL
H5 2/13 EP7 NF
H6 5/18 P1
H7 5/31 P3
H8 8/89 P4 NL 20/1


F1 = 4, 2, 6
TT= 6. 1 4
EPR= 4 2 1
FFR = 6, 4, 1

Bet 4 and 6

32342
32343
32344

[Bill V.]

$ 25W/P 2 and 4

1 opened up at 1/5 ! probably will chew these up

Race 5 5.5
CL4000 3+

Records and running styles
H1 11/37 EP5 Line 1
H2 5/19 E/EP5 Line 1
H3 6/47 E/EP6 Line 1
H4 6/33 P5 6/33
H5 6/37 NF 20/1 ML
H6 4/32 SP1 Line 2
H7 S1 4/38 line 4 is comp
H8 3/29 EP5 Line 1

F1 = 4 7 6
TT= 6 1 2
EPR= 6 1 3
FFR = 7 4 2

Bet 4 and 2

[Bill V.]

The 8 wins big
32350
32351
32352

[Bill V.]

$50 win 7
$25w/p 4

They are betting the 6

Race 7 FM3+ CLm16000 NW3L

H1 3/13 P2
H2 E7 2/16
H3 E8 NTL
H4 EP2 in sprints 2/10 Pattern in lines
H5 EP3 dropping 2/10
H6 EP5 2/7
H7 P4 2/8

segs F1 = 5, 6, 7
TT = 4 2 3x
EPR = 5, 2, 3,x
FFR = 4 5 7


Bet 4 and 7
hope for the 4's pattern from 365 days

[Bill V.]

But the 4 was a stupid bet
Do I really see this horse winning from that far back ?
NOT !

32360[/ATTACH
[ATTACH]32358


32357

32359

32364

[lone speed]

If you will permit me to jump in.....


The chosen line to evaluate the #4 was correct but in context of the races leading up to today's race...

First, the #4 is coming from route races and he is a closer.....it would be best to consider him if the race were loaded with early speed.... so this horse was the "ugly" horse...

Second, the four did not attend to the early pace in the last route race...he closed off some soft fractions on turf.....where he ran late....today, he will be asked to expend energy early where more likely he will falter......nothing is etched in stone.....thanks for my two cents...

[Bill V.]

Thanks LS
I was not sharp that race I called the 4 a EP2 but felt It would probably
might be a Presser in todays race
In its other sprints it lags at the break but seems to get to about 2 behind
on the turn. I has hoping for the turf to dirt effort from line 6
when it won the NW2L race but it was a foolish bet today.
RDSS was incorrect in the 19 behind readout It was second in the F1 and F2

[Bill V.]

60 win #8
40 Place #7

[Bill V.]

60 win #8
40 Place #7

$3.60 :o

What happened to my 8/5 !
at least the 7 placed too :D

32368

[Bill V.]

Readouts The 7

Penn Race 7
FM3+ CL7500 N1-6months
FM 3+ that have not won a race in 6 months (may 29)
races for less than $6250 are ok
Anyone have a cheaper win? Yes the 1 has 3 wins
for less than $6250
The 3 has 3 wins at below $6250
The 6 has 1 win at below $625o
Records and running styles

H1 5/13 E8 NTL
H2 7/30 NF big drop Neg AQU to Penn
H3 6/17 E8 NTL
H4 4/40 SP1 20/1 ML
H5 3/31 EP6
H6 4/32 S1
H7 3/11 E6 NTL
H8 7/34 P4

1, 3, 7 all E nead the lead

F1 = 3 1 7
TT = 7 6 8
EPR = 7 3 1 good Bye 1 and 3
FFR = 8 1 3
60 win #8 best OTE
40 Place #7 Best of the E's

32369
32370
32371

[pktruckdriver]

4 $50 6 $25wp fl1130 race 9

Hey Bill

What is this post about, I can not understand it? It is titled FL4 does this mean race 4, not race 9

1st. 4, I take it this is the horse, but 50.00 what?? nothing here explaining it?

6 25 w/p is clear enough

2nd fl1130 race 9 is this the date, then you are not on the right day, this means you posted wrong date, and maybe race too?

please clarify this

I see plenty of other races this day were dated 11/30, wrong date on a few races, am I missing something here,

good skill patrick

[pktruckdriver]

25wp15
the 7 will pro run them down but i need some races

This post is titled FL7 meaning race 7 but is dated 11/30

seems this was done in a hurry and not posted correctly or screen shots, and others too, would this work for me, of course not, I WOULD HAVE A LOSS OR A NO RACE DELCARED, ??

Patrick

[Bill V.]

As what happens I made an error
I apologize for my hasty posting
I forgot the date was the 29th not the 30th
and my bet was a little cyptic


as you can see here I realized my mistake and cleaned it up in the follow up
post


As what was the case with Noddub62 when he bet 50w/p I made the decision to allow the mistake
because I had a very distint wager pattern to just justify
that in all likeyhood the post was $50 win on the 4 and 25 w/p on
the 6 as I used this same pattern 9 times this month
32379

I will run this by Ted If he says no bet I will live with it

[Bill V.]

This post is titled FL7 meaning race 7 but is dated 11/30

seems this was done in a hurry and not posted correctly or screen shots, and others too, would this work for me, of course not, I WOULD HAVE A LOSS OR A NO RACE DELCARED, ??

Patrick

Your correct Patrick I am out of the contest because I cant do 6 races in one day

Nice work sorry for my errors

[Ted Craven]

Bill and Patrick - I am making an 'executive decision' and invoking the 'spirit of the game' rule with regards Bill's Finger Lakes Race 7 bet yesterday.

That race counts. Bill did mistakenly state the race date was Nov 30 and not Nov 29. But many of his other races yesterday were also incorrectly specified as Nov 30 even though his RDSS screenshots clearly show Nov 29 and anyone could conclude he meant Nov 29 and not Nov 30. In all cases he meant Nov 29 and to disqualify that one bet because of that technicality is not in the spirit of the game.

Inattention is no excuse - BUT, if anyone checks all the other things Bill is doing on the Contest Management front as well as explaining and detailing his races like no one else - to help us learn better how to use RDSS and the Sartin Methodology best practices - then for my money, forgiving him a small and easily understood mistake on the date should be forgiven by reasonable players.

Bill is not out of the Contest. He has 4 races to post today.

BTW - Bill did not ask me for this ruling. But I made it anyway.

Thanks everyone for your understanding. If anyone has a problem with this ruling, I invite them to take it up with me privately by Private Message or email.

Ted

[rmath]

I agree that Bill should finish the contest.
I asked him about it in the daily update section.
I thought he was being too hard on himself.
rmath

[pktruckdriver]

Bill and Ted

I am not trying to disqualify anyone, especially Bill, was just asking for explanation on 1 post he made, the date is always understandable mistake and not something to disqualiffy anyone in this tourney, it was the Title Name FL4, as I thought he meant race 4, as others posts he made the title FL7, meant race 7, that is all, just 1 race, sorry for the mis-understanding.

Bill does alot here and needs some help with all he does, but disqualification is not acceptable, besides he is still in the running for some prizes, I say go for it.

Also for the future, maybe someone will help you with scoring and running the contest, you could use some help, and time off, it couldn't hurt could it.

Thanks Bill and Ted

patrick

[Bill V.]

I am posting this just as the FL 4th race is going off

Rmath if the issue with the post was the date why is it a loss
since the FL4 and 7th race have not run yet

I ruled that because of patricks post I should
be disqualified because I can't do the six races i would need
to finish my cycle

I can't thank Ted enough for allowing my races yesterday to stand
He knows how hard I have tried to work and keep up with
all that I am doing both as contest manager and friend helping my friends
learn to win

Thanks RM

Good Skill in Dec.
I know you will put it all together
Bill

[JIMBOB1002]

I agree. Bill you do a great job with all that you do, and you have helped me to learn a great deal. I think it is fair to say everybody appreciates everything you do here. Jim

[Ted Craven]

I am not trying to disqualify anyone, especially Bill, was just asking for explanation on 1 post he made, the date is always understandable mistake and not something to disqualiffy anyone in this tourney, it was the Title Name FL4, as I thought he meant race 4, as others posts he made the title FL7, meant race 7, that is all, just 1 race, sorry for the mis-understanding.

patrick

Patrick, I just replied to your PM on this topic and I hope my expanded reasoning about the legitimacy of Bill's Post #31 (Finger Lake Race 9, yesterday) answers your questions.

Thanks for your kind words, and for your understanding on this!

cheers,

Ted

[Bill V.]

Jimbob I wanted to tell you how happy I am to see you doing so well.
This month I follow along with every race everybody posted and
you had much better success than misses, A few of your misses
were just cause " XXXX happens "
GS
Bill

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks Bill. Hoping to have less XXXX next month. LOL Jim

[Midland333]

Good decision Ted-----now Bill how about you have a big finish then take the winners share and buy a house!!!!!!!

Mike

[Bill V.]

$50 w/p horse 1

5.5 CL4500 FM 3+ Non winners of 2 races
2010-2012

H1 EP5 7/27
H2 NF 3/66
H3 NF 12/60
H4 S1 1/36
H5 scratch
H6 S1 4/54
H7 P4 Form ?

F1 1, 7, 4
TT = 6, 4, 1
EPR = 1, 6, 7
FFR = 4, 1 , 6

[Bill V.]

$60 win # 3
$40 win # 1

My notes
5.5 CL4500 3+ Non winners of 3 races
2011-2012

H1A EP5 9/46
H2 P5 3/35
H3 SP1 7/57
H4 NF 4/37
H5 E7 NTL 2/21
H6 scratch
H7 scratch
H8 Scratch
H9 E/EP5 5/47

F1 9, 1, 5
TT = 2 1 3 x good bye 5
EPR = 2 1 5
FFR 9, 3, 1
win bets 1 and 3

[Bill V.]

$50 w/p horse 1

5.5 CL4500 FM 3+ Non winners of 2 races
2010-2012

H1 EP5 7/27
H2 NF 3/66
H3 NF 12/60
H4 S1 1/36
H5 scratch
H6 S1 4/54
H7 P4 Form ?

F1 1, 7, 4
TT = 6, 4, 1
EPR = 1, 6, 7
FFR = 4, 1 , 6

Here is the result chart
32397
32396
32395

[Bill V.]

$60 win # 3
$40 win # 1

My notes
5.5 CL4500 3+ Non winners of 3 races
2011-2012

H1A EP5 9/46
H2 P5 3/35
H3 SP1 7/57
H4 NF 4/37
H5 E7 NTL 2/21
H6 scratch
H7 scratch
H8 Scratch
H9 E/EP5 5/47

F1 9, 1, 5
TT = 2 1 3 x good bye 5 EPR = 2 1 5
FFR 9, 3, 1
win bets 1 and 3

Best early - best OTE

32402
32401
32400

[lone speed]

Bill.....

At FL.....race #7....I see that #6 Stephane has the #1 rank TT or turn time...can you see under the Energy segment if #6 has a clear advantage over the final contenders in decimals...I want to know if #6 has an advantage for example...34.55 over 34.35 over the next closest rival....

Another observation is the paceline from the 5.5 furlongs seems to produce a higher total energy than the field where the pacelines are from six furlongs...

Thanks in advance....

[Bill V.]

here is the Energy FPS readout

32403

[lone speed]

Bill...


Thanks for your time in putting up the energy screen...

I was focusing on the energy % screen where #6 Stephen does indeed have a clear advantage over his closest rival at the second call and I also see that #1 Saturday dominates the First call..
Using Bradshaw's matchup, We can slow #6 Stephen second time by one tick and change his final time one tick faster...Then We might get him into the top two in rankings...

Thanks again, Bill

[Bill V.]

$50 win # 6
$25 w/p # 2

Cl5000 FM3+

H1 EP3 4/13

H2 EP5 6/31
H3 EP4 NF 4/20
H4 EP2 4/23
H5 scratch
H6 E/EP5 13/57
H7 Scratch
H8 S1 5/45

F1 6 4 2
TT 4 2 6
EPR 6 2 4
FFR 4 6 2

[Bill V.]

I'm out of gas

"I got blisters on my fingers'

$70 win 9
$30 Place 8

My notes
Race 6 MNR 5.5 CL5000 Nw2 since Nov302011

H1 P3 No recent form 30/1 ML no line 6/70
H2 P2 Line 1 moves up after win 3/40
H3 P3 No line 3/12
H4 P1 No line 1/7
H5 P1 No line 4/46 20/1 Ml
H6 Early5 Line 1 7/77
H7 P3 form? 4/38
H8 Early8 NTL line 1 3/12 won last
H9 EP5 Line 1 3/12
H10 P4 Form question 3/31

F1= 8 10 2
TT= 6 9 8
EPR = 6. 8.9
FFR = 2 9 10

Just out of options
70 win 9
$30 place on 8

[For The Lead]

Bill...


Thanks for your time in putting up the energy screen...

I was focusing on the energy % screen where #6 Stephen does indeed have a clear advantage over his closest rival at the second call and I also see that #1 Saturday dominates the First call..
Using Bradshaw's matchup, We can slow #6 Stephen second time by one tick and change his final time one tick faster...Then We might get him into the top two in rankings...

Thanks again, Bill

The #6 horse DOES NOT have a clear advantage at the "second call".
It does, however, have the best second fraction. There is a difference.

When you read the segments screen, you have to read two parts of it in concert with each other.
Let's take F1. It is straight forward, so no further explanation is required.

The second segment DOES NOT represent the "second call", it represents the "second fraction". To understand this, look at "Computerized Beaten Lengths", where it shows the #1 with the advantage at the second call, with the #6 in 4th position at that same point. However, the reason the #6 shows "best" on the segments screen, is because the segment represents the best second fraction horse, not best second call horse. The second segment is clearly labeled "F2" not 2nd call.

Further confirmation of the above is the FPS readout Bill provided. If you read the F1, F2 and SC ratings, this will show the same thing as the information on the "entire" segments screen.

Hope this clears things up for you.

32417
32418

[Bill V.]

$50 win # 6
$25 w/p # 2

Cl5000 FM3+

H1 EP3 4/13

H2 EP5 6/31
H3 EP4 NF 4/20
H4 EP2 4/23
H5 scratch
H6 E/EP5 13/57
H7 Scratch
H8 S1 5/45

F1 6 4 2
TT 4 2 6
EPR 6 2 4
FFR 4 6 2

The 8 wins the 2 places
32419

32420

32421

[Bill V.]

I'm out of gas

"I got blisters on my fingers'

$70 win 9
$30 Place 8

My notes
Race 6 MNR 5.5 CL5000 Nw2 since Nov302011

H1 P3 No recent form 30/1 ML no line 6/70
H2 P2 Line 1 moves up after win 3/40
H3 P3 No line 3/12
H4 P1 No line 1/7
H5 P1 No line 4/46 20/1 Ml
H6 Early5 Line 1 7/77
H7 P3 form? 4/38
H8 Early8 NTL line 1 3/12 won last
H9 EP5 Line 1 3/12
H10 P4 Form question 3/31

F1= 8 10 2
TT= 6 9 8
EPR = 6. 8.9
FFR = 2 9 10

Just out of options
70 win 9
$30 place on 8

The 9 wins
32422
32423
32424

[lone speed]

The #6 horse DOES NOT have a clear advantage at the "second call".
It does, however, have the best second fraction. There is a difference.

When you read the segments screen, you have to read two parts of it in concert with each other.
Let's take F1. It is straight forward, so no further explanation is required.

The second segment DOES NOT represent the "second call", it represents the "second fraction". To understand this, look at "Computerized Beaten Lengths", where it shows the #1 with the advantage at the second call, with the #6 in 4th position at that same point. However, the reason the #6 shows "best" on the segments screen, is because the segment represents the best second fraction horse, not best second call horse. The second segment is clearly labeled "F2" not 2nd call.

Further confirmation of the above is the FPS readout Bill provided. If you read the F1, F2 and SC ratings, this will show the same thing as the information on the "entire" segments screen.

Hope this clears things up for you.

32417
32418


For the Lead....


Your comments and your time are always respected and duly noted....

My comments about the second call was an error in semantics in using the correct terminology in Sartin readouts....Thanks for the correction...

My opinion about the adjustments still stand as I had put forth...

Sometimes, it is the jockey who made a hasty bold move too early in the race to catch up into contention....

Sometimes, the bold second turn move was directed by the trainer....as a conditioning move....

In today's matchup...the horse who previously made the bold second turn move will not have to and hence have a more efficient run in today's matchup...

Many thanks for all of your input...:)