Race 6 CD Best Line

[Bill V.]

Which is the "best" line

This is the winner of race 6 yesterday at CD it paid $14.20 to win
I used line 3 as it was a plus race at 6.0
same distance but from RP
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Using line 2 the horse ranked 3rd on BLBL
Using line 3 puts the horse tied with the 3 for 2nd

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My thoughts are both lines could be used
but line 2 might be better here,
Why Bill ? Line 3 rates the horse better
Well yes but Doc writes about horses in the top 3
being equal a decision must be made of which horse
to bet.

lets look at horse 6
look at its Early late numbers and its EPR and TPR numbers
which line most represents the horses normal ability
Is line 3 a bit more early than the other races ?
Other than the Kentucky Derby I never bet races from CD
but I do think it tends to favor late energy

Line 2 perhaps than would be the better line in this race

No matter I bet the 3 and 6 I bet against horse 11 as I
went to line 5 the fast line over line 1 on the slop
but this was enough of a question mark in my mind to bet against the 11
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[5Chalky5]

Bill -

When picking contenders and pacelines do always look at the Original tab and TPR+E/L tab?

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Hi 5Chalky5

Yes, the way I set up the screen with the original on top and the TPR/Early Late
underneath gives me a good picture of the horses plus, plus within a zero and zero races as well as its early late running patterns
The adjusted speed ratings are over to the right so I can easily check out how each line is being adjusted

Welcome to the contest, You had two tough losses
at Santa Anita on your first day. The 7th was a tough call
You went with the 2 horse who have won races against winners the rest were only maiden winners. This horse won

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Good Skill going forward
Bill

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

What do you mean by plus?

I have noticed that you have mentioned that a few times in your posts. It seems like it should be something that I should know.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Bill -

What do you mean by plus?

I have noticed that you have mentioned that a few times in your posts. It seems like it should be something that I should know.

Kyle

Hi Kyle
There are a few post about the plus + , or plus within a zero (+)
or zero races
Here is one

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=59997&postcount=1


The nice thing is Ted has color coded the plus races

Here is a post I made a little while ago and the video
might help you understand what I'm talking about
with plus races. Here is the link

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=81298&postcount=1

[For The Lead]

I want to stay on track here with the +, 0 and (+). That’s a PLUS, ZERO or PLUS WITHIN A ZERO.

I think this is a great tool, as long as it is used properly, because it shows you the “usable” pacelines. In addition to that, it forces the user to actually read each running line, which familiarizes the user with the horse.

The first thing that is needed is a description of what each symbol stands for.
+ = any race where the horse ran, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, regardless of style.
(+) = any race where the horse shows one of the following
A – showed good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or 2nd calls, even if it faded down the stretch
B – any race where the horse made a good middle move (that’s call 1 to call 2) gaining in lengths and being within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call, even if it faded down the stretch
0 = any other line

There may be those that disagree with this assessment, but I urge you to look at lines that fit this description and I think you will find that lines that fit this description ARE the formful races you want and need.

The best definition I can offer for a “usable” line is;
“any line where the horse shows it had an impact on the outcome of the race”
The most important words here are “had an impact on the outcome of the race”.

Obviously a horse that finished 1st,2nd or 3rd had an impact on the outcome of the race and was trying to win the race
Any horse that is running 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls are obviously having an impact on the race, even if they fade down the stretch.
Horses that show they make a good middle move, as noted above, are impacting the race at the second call, even if they fade down the stretch. Generally, these types of lines will show the horse moving into 2nd or 3rd position or even taking the lead at the second call and then fading down the stretch.

I have attached several pacelines that were used in the October contest. These are NOT the only lines like these that were used by contestants during October….FAR FROM IT!
Naturally, I did not review each horse to see if a better line "+ or (+)" was available. It really doesn’t matter. The point here is to show what paceline WAS USED and that it would be in your best interest NOT TO USE lines like these.

[5Chalky5]

For the Lead -

Thank for the explanation. I am still trying to figure out how to best use RDSS and this will help.

Kyle

[cody]

Hi Bill,I am new here and hope you could clarify something for me.In past post I thought you stated you use the last line for each horse to pick your five contenders.If you use the 6 horses last line he is dead last in cpr,I do not mean this to be critical,I am just trying to learn something like when you ignore the last line.

Thanks
Cody

[Bill V.]

Hi Bill,I am new here and hope you could clarify something for me.In past post I thought you stated you use the last line for each horse to pick your five contenders.If you use the 6 horses last line he is dead last in cpr,I do not mean this to be critical,I am just trying to learn something like when you ignore the last line.

Thanks
Cody

Hello Cody

Thank you for bringing up this point. As It happens this way now and then

first off you are correct here is the last line for every horse
and you are correct the winner # 6 is ranked last

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so If we go with the last line for all the horses We lose the race

However lets refer back to the pace line manual
and refer to a recent post by FTL
Always Use The Last Line Unless****

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So whats the story with # 6 well to me the last line excuses are wrong distance, wrong surface, class too high ,
and first try over the KEE track this cureent meet

Now I start from the 1 horse follow these Paceline manual quide lines
Its also good to do your Plus Pluswithin a zero and zero races at this point

Then run TPR for these lines

Here are my notes for the race
after I picked the lines noted here
I THEN took the top 5 TPR as contenders

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your top 5 TPR are very good contenders

BTW in most races the winner will be in the top 5 off its last line TPR
even before you go through each horse
RDSS makes it very easy to check this
I check this every race I see posted for the contest

[5Chalky5]

Bill -

Do you think I have chosen the proper running line for the horse below?

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I did not use the last race, because it was on a wf track. It did make a positive move in the race so to me it showed some signs of life and kept him as a contender.

The 4th back seemed like the best one since it does look as if he will be able to make the lead based on velocity of the horse.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Hi Cody
The 16 horse you show is a scratch but my answer is no about using it.
It would not have ben a contender in TODAYS race.
Now these are facts I use they might not work for you.
First off Its 20/1 on the Morning Line this is almost always a non contender RED FLAG .
20/1 and above horses do win races but its very very rare when they do .
When they do win I look at it like this example, If I were in line to buy a lottery scratch off ticket
and the guy ahead of me buys one and he wins does that mean if I buy the next ticket I will win too ?
No its a random event. The odds of thousands of races prove this.
Right place right time type thing. I don't chase these horses and I don't give them lines.
Now if you want to use 20/1 ML horses I would rate this horse off the last line.
Line 2 is a poor effort Line 3 is a poor effort.
The key is to use the last line After you can excuse a line. Why did you excuse line 2 and 3 to go to line 4 ?

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[5Chalky5]

Bill -

I was thinking in terms of he +(+) or 0.
I understand what you are saying if you skip a race than you need to go to next useable race. That would make this horse a throw out.

Right after I sent this I saw that he was a scratch, but I can still learn from this.

Thanks.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Yes I would make the last line as a + plus race
It finished in the money, It made a strong middle move
and ran to its energy patern when in form. look at its Early Late EPR FFR rating and TPR
It is very close to its other plus sprint races
Its Early Late running pattern in its 3 plus sprint races
were
4.8 Early
5.8 Early
4.5 Early

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[For The Lead]

First, I agree with Bill's choice of line 1 as the paceline to be used.

Let's take another look at the horse in question.

I have marked some areas you should pay attention to and will comment on them.

1 - the conditions of today's race and the conditions of its' most recent races. As you can see, they are basically the same, with the last race being slightly lower in class.

2 - you chose line 4 for this horse. Line 4 is this horse's "best ever" line.
If this line is so predictive, then why did the horse run much worse in its' next 3 races?
What evidence is there that this horse will run back to line 4 today if it hasn't run anywhere near that kind of race in its' last 3 races? The slight improvement in its' last race may be due to the slight drop in class. Today it is moving back up in class to the previous level.

Lastly, what does WET FAST (wf) mean?

It's a beautiful day. The sun is shinning. The temperature is in the 80's. The track is FAST. All of a sudden there is a downpour of rain. It only last for 15 or 20 minutes, but now there is water on the track. The track condition is changed to 'WET FAST'. What that means is...the track is STILL FAST, but there is water laying on top. The horses will probably continue to run fast times, assuming they were before the downpour. Compare this to the sidewalk. When it rains, there may be puddles on the sidewalk, but the sidewalk is still hard. WET FAST is NOT like sloppy, muddy or good. When you get to these surface conditions, the track has been effected by the moisture on the track and horses will run slower times.

In the Paceline Manual, Doc wrote the following...

[5Chalky5]

FTL -

I understand what you are saying.

Do you think a WF track could actually speed up the times?

When it comes to turf races are you supposed to skip races that have been run over off turf (GD,YL)?

Kyle

[cody]

Thanks Bill and FTL,thats what makes this thread so worthwhile.

Cody

[For The Lead]

FTL -

I understand what you are saying.

Do you think a WF track could actually speed up the times?

When it comes to turf races are you supposed to skip races that have been run over off turf (GD,YL)?

Kyle

To answer your first question, I'm not really sure. Anything I would say would be pure speculation.

To answer your second question will be a little more involved, but it is a good question.

The first thing you have to ask is "WHY" is it recommended to skip over (excuse) off tracks?
1 - some horses just plain DON'T LIKE IT, therefore they won't give their best effort. On the other hand, there are some horses that love the off tracks and may perform better for that reason. The assumption is, all horses will give you an honest performance on a fast track which will be dictated by their current form along with the distance and class at which they are currently entered.
2 - "OFF" tracks can be slower than fast tracks. Let's take two horses, one that ran 6 furlongs on a fast track and one that ran on a muddy track. Here are their times;

Horse A, on a fast track..... 22.2, 45.3, 111.4
Horse B, on a muddy track.. 23.1, 46.4, 113.0

Would it be fair to compare these two horses?
Understand that adjusting these times for daily variant can bring them closer together, but using "fast track" times for both horses is more appropriate.

As it pertains to TURF racing.
The same point I just made pertains to "firm" tracks as compared to "yielding" tracks.

Hope this answers your questions.

[5Chalky5]

FTL -

I understand what you are saying and thanks for responding.

Kyle

[Bill V.]

Cody
You are correct had you been consistant with your pacelines
you had the $80 horse right there

Wish I had done the race
Here is my look

My look
Last line TPR all horses
the 11 13 14 and 15 are scratched

The top 5 TPR and top 2 EP and Lp
horses 6, 9, 5, 12, 10

Now I will pick lines

H1 No line Early 20/1 ML
H2 No line Early 30/1 ML
H3 Early No sprint form 20/1 ML
H4 Line 1 Early
H5 Line 1 EP win in form runs balance
on the Early late graph
H6 SP line 1
H7 EP off 376 days No line
H8 Router No recent sprint form
H9 Sus Line 1 win line
H10 Sus Line 1 in line
H11 Scr
H12 No form No line 20/1 ML
H 16 sus 20/1 No line

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