November Daily Update

[Bill V.]

Nov 1 -2 results

The gate pops and nobody gets a good break:o

Lets see if today we gets some Stars

31461

[Bill V.]

Sorry folks
There was a giltch and all the late SA BC races did not save
on the score sheet
I have reentered them and the updated score will be posted
late tonight as long as everybody gets in their screen shots
with those monster wins

[Bill V.]

31538

Lots of Big Breeders Cup winners

Ted
gfnut
Rmath
Patrick
All cash blue star winners


Noddub62 and Midland333 score at
Woodbine Santa Anita and Remington

Midland (2) and Ted Score gold stars for >$70 win bets

Lots of bets Saturday and Friday
Please check your scores
31536

31535

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

Welcome to the October contest
Cody
Buffaloxp

****************

31561

Gold Stars
Ted 1
Midland333 2

[rmath]

Regarding the BC contest.
The way I read the rules Pktruckdriver is first and gfnut is second and Ted was 3rd and I was 4th.
We were the only ones to play at least 5 BC races.

Correct me if I am wrong.
As long as the top 2 complete their 20 race cycles.
rmath

[rmath]

Bill, What are the Gold Stars for?
Please explain how they are earned.
rmath

[Bill V.]

Hi Richard

yes that appears to be the case
I don't think anybody else did the minium of 5 races

[Bill V.]

Bill, What are the Gold Stars for?
Please explain how they are earned.
rmath

As I thought about it. I think we are not being fair to the 1 horse bet folks
or the folks who bet $100 to win on 1 horse, or those who bet at or over $70 as one of their 2 horse win bets
They probably will not get many $9.00 horses
I went with anything including or over a $70 Win bet hit as a gold star
Place bets do not count
The reason I picked $70 was it represents Doc's guidelines
of betting 50/50 60/40 or even 70/30 percentages

Bill

[rmath]

Thanks for explaining the gold stars.
Rmath

[Bill V.]

Thanks for explaining the gold stars.
Rmath

Just to add the gold stars are just to call out wins on win bets
over $70

There is no prize for gold stars only Blue Stars

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg


FX

31597
31598
31599

31600

[Bill V.]

31638

October Champ Chuckg collects a place bet at FL race 9

Gfnut retakes the lead

31639


**


Gold Star Wins
Midland333 **
Ted Craven *

[pktruckdriver]

Bill I think you missed a play from me, from 11/6

I played the following

FL 4th loss

FL 5th loss

FL 6th loss

PRX 9th Loss

FL 9th wager cancelled due to odds drop

That leaves me with 4 plays, I believe I started the day woth 9 plays, giving me 13 , I think. And 100 less BR

Patrick

[Bill V.]

Patrick
You are right. I missed the Finger Lakes 6th
50 w 3-7
You hid the 9 but the 9 won and paid $4.20
I will correct your score

Thank you for your honesty and for checking your score
31659

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

Chuckg gets a solid Match Up w/p bet at FL race 2

From Follow Up 83 you can change Val 2 to RDSS2
31679

31680

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

*******
We have a new leader
Jimbob1002 has a 3-3 day with 4 Blue Stars
Midland goes 3 -3 at Woodbine

31730

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

gfnut scores a Blue Star $25 winner at BHP
and breaks the $3000 mark

Midland333
noddub62 also post winners


Has we head into the 2nd fraction Gfnut, Jimbob1002, Ted C, Midland are the leaders
who will make a turn time move

31805

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg
**********************************************

From Follow Up # 1 :eek:

True Speed

31904

TS or True speed or even Total Speed (same thing)
can be found on the FPS POR/POH screens

31911

and its added to the 3rd fraction of the segments screen

31910
*****************************************

31907

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg
***************************************************************************

Midland 333 Mike takes over the lead by a few dollares over gfnut

From Follow Up 88

31955

***************************************************************************
31954

[Bill V.]

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalp380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

___________________________________________________

Noddub62 Hits a Blue Star at Penn Race 6
Bill V. gets a Blue Star at Finger Lakes
Jimbob hits race 5 from Prx on 11/13

The top 4 scorers have a big advantage
as we approach the 1/2 way point

31993

31994

[rmath]

Bill, I noticed that Noddub62 bet 2 horses in his post #23.
50 to win & place on two horses the 5 & 8. If my math is right thismakes a total of 200.00 dollars bet.
If I read the rules right the the bet on the # 8 is voided since he listed the #5 as his first bet.
Am I right on this assumption?
rmath

[Bill V.]

Rmath and friend
What would you do ?
Here is what the rules say
32022

some examples

32021

I read it as if you bet an excess of two horses your last horse is dropped
If you bet over 100 your bet is adjusted downward to equal $100
I see no reason to drop one of Budmans selections since he bet two horses evenly
It seems to me his intentions were to split his bets w/p and his history of making the $25w/p bets on two horses justifies the possibility thats what he intented

Nodubb62 history

[rmath]

Who are you talking about when you address me as rmath and friend?
Do you have a mouse in you pocket?
I was only asking for clarification when I saw that your friend made a mistake when he posted his bet.
I am not the one who has to enforce the rules. YOU are.
If I had to make the final decision I would have dropped the second horse, but since I am not in a position to make or enforce the rules I and everyone else has to abide bye your decision.
rmath

[Bill V.]

Hi I made a typo. My mistake I wantrd to add the plural S for friends
You know as in the pace and cap motto, Friends helping friends WIN
I asked the group and am asking you again based on how the contest rules
are written why do I have to drop one of Noddub62's horses ?

yes I made my decision

I just want to make sure you see my reasoning

BTW Ted and I ruled on this yesterday morning

Bill

[rmath]

Bill, as I stated I was only asking for clarification on the rule.
I thought that since the total was 200.00 that 100.00 was to be deducted from the last horse listed first to get the bet down to 100.00.
Then since the 50.00 to win and place on the first horse equaled 100.00 there was nothing left to put on the 2nd horse, and therefore it would be eliminated.
Apparently I misunderstood the rule.

PS: I forgive your typo,everyone makes mistakes, especially me.
Keep up the good work.
rmath

[rmath]

Bill, forgot to ask how you and Ted ruled ?

[Bill V.]

Thanks for getting back to me
I see where the rules are tricky in this case
I read it as if you bet in Excess of 2 horses the last horse is taken away
If your total bet on 2 horses is over $100 the bet is adjusted down to $100 if your bets don't total $100 they are adjusted up to $100

Since Noddub wanted to bet w/p on two horse
Ted and I ruled his bet should be adjusted down in eqaul increments
to $25 win $25 place on both his horses

I suggested to Ted that given the fact noddub62 often makes that format
bet that was most likely his intention

Ted and I ruled that I would score the race as $25w/p on both horses

[Bill V.]

*******************************************************

RDSS "Learn To Win" Contest Ring Of Honor

June - Noddub62 July - Bill V. August - Barb Craven
September - Ted Craven October - Chuckg


Sartin Messenger Winners

July Gandalph380 August - Aldens Dad September - Chuckg
October Bill V.

Blue Star Winners

October = Chuckg

********************************************************

Buffaloxp Gets a win/place bet at BHP race 4

As we hit the 1/2 point
congrats to the leaders
Midland333
Gfnut
Ted C
Jimbob1002

http://youtu.be/yRYFKcMa_Ek

32048

[Bill V.]

32081

A Big day for Blue Stars

Cody
5Chalky5
Jimbob1002
all shine

32082

32080

[Bill V.]

32106

2 Blue Stars yesterday

Rmath Race 5 Parx
Cody Race 8 AQU

He that can have patience can have what he will . - Benjamin Franklin


32107

[Bill V.]

32124

gfnut hits a blue star at BHP and opens a lead
Cody continues his improvement in the second have and hits at AQU

From Pace Makes The Race
The glaring discrepancy in the mainstream rating process is that it
rewards weak third fractions. It ignores the fact that 2nd call velocities can
often be too fast and horses running them cannot sustain their energy to
the wire. The too fast early phenomenon is commonplace and must be dealt
with in order to win consistently


2nd call Final frac. 2nd Rating Final Frac Rating Total Rating

A: 45 25 95 85 180

B 44.4 25,1 96 84 180

C 44.3 25 .2 97 83 180

Note: the horses with the weaker final fraction are penalized instead of
rewarded. to separate the resultant tie, use your decision model for
determining the early - late win bias at your track (s) by distance, class
and surface

32125

[Bill V.]

32158

Jimbob1002 remains the feel good story of the November contest
He has picked up multible blue stars
with a very good win place betting method

As we hit the 3/4 pole
Gfnut
Jimbob1002
Ted C are the leaders
Who else will be the sustained pace to
charge home

GS down the stretch
Bill


32157

[noddub62]

On 11/20/2012 I bet at Penn 4th race $50W on 1 & 9. ! won (pd $5.20 bet down from 8:1) and 9 scratched. The scoring doesn't jive. Would you please recheck my score.

Thanks and have a Happy Thanksgiving

Bud

[Bill V.]

Thanks Bud

I did not see the 9 was scratched You get a full $100 win on the 1
horse
I have made the correction on the scores

Happy Thanksgiving

[noddub62]

Thanks Bill. Don't eat too much turkey!

[Bill V.]

Noddub62 hits a full $100 win bet on Pen 4 on 11/20
Than catches 2 wins at Pen on 11/21 Race 6 and 8

Midland333 gest back on the win side at Pen also race 6



From Pace Makes The Race

Now back to handicapping. After labeling each horse, see how many of each type
there are and begin to develope a mental picture of the running of the race.
For Instance, if most of the races at your track are being won by that are less than
5 lenghts behind at the second call and are in the front half of the field , you would look
at you E, EP, and P, horses for the logical win contenders, This does not
mean Sustained horses are to be totally ignored Rather,
it means that in order for a sustained horse to be taken seriously It must
have superior credentials when compared to the field it is facing ,
With ESP designations, you are able to take a look at a unique herd
of horses and see how each individual horses participation in the race ultimately
effects the other horses

32173

[Bill V.]

32184

From Pace Makes The Race

Route to Sprint: very few true routers are capable of competing
in a sprint. Traditional handicapping tells us that most are in a sprint for
the work, or to" put some speed into the horse " be that as it may, few
of these horses can stand the early pace set in most sprints.
The exception will be a router that is invariably on the lead in almost
all of his races, and has shown a willingness to contest the lead .
If this horse is within 3 points of the EPR's of the sprinters in the race.
it should be treated with respect. Don't worry too much about it, though
You will find very few such horses .

Bill V. hits a W and place bet at BHP race 4
Midland333 goes down to Fairgrounds for a place bet win FG9

32183

[Bill V.]

32239


*****


A winners review

Pace Makes The Race
Page 253
Race example winner
Graig Ronald Pays $13.40

Here is what the author Dick Schmidt notes say

Graig Ronald: - (Sustained) Dropping to the lowest level of career.
His last race shows some sign of life and I really looked him over before I
chose a rating for him. This level is often won by horses dropping, so it is
often difficult to accurately rate these animals. The pace of this race is similar
to the pace I expect today, which is another reason to rate this line.
he has equaled this performance in 4 of his last 10 races so I feel a
repeat is possible.

*********

Gfnut picks up another Blue Star at BHP race 4 and his lead grows
Bill V get a Blue Star at Parx

32238

[Bill V.]

Barb C has a strong 3rd fraction as she ends her cycle Barb gets another Blue Star at Parx race 7

Still a good race going on for the lead
Ted C dropped a few yesterday but still has 10 races to close ground

Gfnut and Jimbob lead the way


32276

[barb craven]

Hi Bill
I was too late in posting that FL yesterday, so I don't think that counts. But I just lost PRX R5 a few minutes ago, so it doesn't matter.
Barb

[Bill V.]

Thanks Barb

You had me confused because you posted "too late"
I thought you meant the horses LOL

Ok sorry you missed todays bet

[Bill V.]

Midland "Hit Man" Mike Hits a Gold Star win at Pen race 5
and jumps right back into the race
watch out for that hit rate !

32305

[Bill V.]

Ted C. gets 3 BLUE STARS and moves into second place
Buffaloxp gets his first BLUE STAR and wins 2 races at AQU
Chuckg gets back on track at FL

The race is on:cool: Looks like a possible photo finish

32332

[Bill V.]

LAST DAY ! Will it be ??

Gfnut
Ted C.
Jimbob1002

or a real sustained
:rolleyes:

32378

[Bill V.]

for improper posting of yesterdays date
I have been diqualified

Updated score sheet

32380

[rmath]

Bill, why would you be disqualified for a posting error?
Would not the race in question only count as a loss and you still have today to finish the contest?
I think you are being to hard on yourself.
Your friend,

rmath

[pktruckdriver]

Bill, why would you be disqualified for a posting error?
Would not the race in question only count as a loss and you still have today to finish the contest?
I think you are being to hard on yourself.
Your friend,

rmath

Agreed

[Ted Craven]

Per my post here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=86747&postcount=46 Bill is still in the Contest.

Ted

[Bill V.]

GFNUT edges out Jimbob1002

Here are the leaders as we all finish our 20 race cycles

Unofficial winners

1st Place Gfnut
2nd Place Jimbob1002 Also Blue Star Winner
3rd Place Ted Craven
4th Place Midland333

I have added the excel score sheet Please check your scores
We will announce the official winners soon

32432



32433

[pktruckdriver]

Congrats to this month's winners, this was a very good month for so many, great capping all of you



Patrick