Pass on the early

[Bill V.]

Here is a contest race I was asked to review
The selection was on horse 3 w/p

My review says this would have been a great race to PASS

First here is the winner #1 it paid $3.20 !
First off the conditions of the race are for Non winners of 3 Lifetime
its a 4500 Claimer. The horse was claimed for $12500 now its in for $4500
so right away we have an issue.
Next just look at the break and first call position
of this horse, without seeing any other horse in the race
would you say this horse is probably going to break 1st!!Its a E8
you can't be any more early than that !
32278

[Bill V.]

Why the 3 was picked I can't understand ?

Here are my notes I will post the full PP'd on request

but I feel my notes say a lot
I have picked pace lines for my contenders
I have marked the ESP running styles
I have notes the life time records
Remember this is for horses who have never won 3 races

Claim 4500 N3L
H1 EARLY 8 line 2 2/9
H2 No line 20/1 S1 2/8
H3 No line No form 2/32
H4 SP1 No line No recent Plus dirt sprints 2/9
H5 scratch
H6 P4 Line 1 is a plus dry sprint placed pressing 2/26
H7 EP5 No excuse last race no line 2/32
H8 SP line 1 2/10
H9 No Form No line 20/1
H10 EarlY6 NTL Line 1 2/12
H11 S1 Line 1 2/18
H12 No line no form 20/1 2/25

Just from the info here where do you position the 3 horse
at best it will trail the 1, 6, 7,and 10
does it show the ability to pass horses ?It did in line 5 but what has been the case lately?
Will it get the lead
against this group ?

[Bill V.]

So Now

Lets run the race in RDSS

first based on the positions you see
Do you really think the 10 and 6 will out break the 1?
Both the 10 and 1 are Nead The Leads
so the break F1 and TT will do in one of these two horses
The readouts say the 10 will out break the 1 But the 1 does it every
race The 10 has only got the lead 2 times

This is a gamble to bet against

here is the BLBL
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here is the segs
32281

Here is the result chart
32282

[Midland333]

Bill
The only way Id play this race would be to use the #1 in a pick 4 and use it as an anchor horse to turn it into a pick #3. So, in actuality I love horses like the #1 for exotics then #1 becomes pretty good value. I guess its just another way trying to win money.

[For The Lead]

Why the 3 was picked I can't understand ?



Bill V did a great job laying out this race, so I'm not going to try and improve on that good job.

I will however, attempt to provide an answer to his question.

Before I get started, let me stress, I would NOT encourage the type of reasoning I am about to offer. I really don't even know if the person that made this pick used the reasoning I am about to set forth. This is simply an attempt on my part to offer a reasoning. So here goes.

I have posted the PP's for both the winner (#1) and the #3.
Take note of the Adj SR I have marked. This contestant used line 2 for the winner and line 2 for the #3 horse.

Notice that both horses have an Adj SR of "81". So are these horses equal??
If you are only handicapping by "speed rating, final time or total energy", then I suppose this makes sense. (I guess)

For those of you who do not bother with things such as "lifetime records" and such, notice where I have marked the lifetime record for each horse.
The winner is 2 for 9 lifetime going into the race, whereas...
the #3 horse is 2 for 32 lifetime. A horse with 32 lifetime starts and only 2 wins is a pretty bad horse!

Now let's look at each horses PP's.
The winner is the early horse in this race as Bill V pointed out. And it is the early horse every time out. In other words, it shows "form" every time out.

On the other side of the coin, the #3 hasn't "smelled" anything in its' last 5 starts. Where is the evidence that this horse is a contender today?
If you believe that speed rating, final time or total energy is the ONLY yardstick by which to measure, then the #3 is your horse!
Persoanlly, however, I wouldn't suggest it.
Neither have I ever seen anything in the follow ups that would suggest betting such a horse.

Here are the horses.

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32291

I think it would be in everyone's best interest to read the follow ups, starting with follow up #1, as well as the Paceline Manual.
I know this doesn't represent the "modern methodology", but I am from the old school where you learn from the ground up. I have posted in another thread in the teaching section, a snippet from the follow ups that clearly says, "LEARN THE BASICS FIRST". That's a good suggestion.

The last follow up was #88. As currently as follow up #87, Doc still talks about the original methodology. In this particular example, it was with regard to "betting", where Doc said the original betting guideline are as true as of the writing of follow up #87 and they were at the beginning.

[Bill V.]

Bill
The only way Id play this race would be to use the #1 in a pick 4 and use it as an anchor horse to turn it into a pick #3. So, in actuality I love horses like the #1 for exotics then #1 becomes pretty good value. I guess its just another way trying to win money.

Mike FTL didn't mention the negative class drop the 1 is making, I trust FTL and he knows about class so I am not sure if the 1 is a good bet in any pool

Ted and I were talking today about how and If the contest is helping people
bet into the other pools

Good Skill the reat of the way you stilll have a good win percentage
Bill