Projected Pace in Latest Version

[joefour]

Hi All,

Could someone point out to me the projected pace feature in the latest version (beta 2.5-11)? I'm just not seeing it anywhere on my screens.
Any help would be most appreciated.

Joefour

[Ted Craven]

Hi All,

Joe,

Could someone point out to me the projected pace feature in the latest version (beta 2.5-11)? I'm just not seeing it anywhere on my screens.
Any help would be most appreciated.

Joefour

Projected Pace identifies from RAW running times, typically from the first 2 calls, what pressure will exist for the Early and Early Presser runners.

On either the horse's Original screen, or the Analysis Original screen (i.e. for selected lines representing ALL horses) - focus on the RS Running Styles designated as E or EP. In RDSS, right-clicking on a line tends to bring up editing or manipulation features of the software, while left-clicking simply selects a line (i.e. for inclusion or removal from the Analysis paceline set).

So, for an E or EP horse, right-click on the first call time for the horse. That time appears in the set of boxes in the green header above the call times. All other call times for that horse, and all other horses are colour coded to show times within .2 seconds (BLUE), > .2 seconds faster (GREENish) or > .2 slower (no colour). Early horses which cannot keep up with other Earlies (i.e have no colour at the 1st or 2nd call) will not achieve their required running position in the herd, and will not win if the faster Early runs true today.

Conversely, if several other E's are coloured BLUE (within .2 of selected/projected pace) this is a confirmation that sufficient early pressure (at least as measured by RAW, unadjusted times) exists to potentially compromise the Earlies, thus setting up for an Other than Early. In this scenario, horses who are not challenging the early lead, but who have shown they have faced and run well against a fast pace of race, perhaps having good Segments screen TS+F3 rating, should be studied closely. The lines used to represent the Earlies should be lines they are reasonably capable of duplicating today (to the extent this can be known ...)

Continue similarly with the 2nd call time. Paceline distances where the call time distances do not line up with today's distance are skipped (e.g. a 9f line in today's < 9f race - the 4f 1st call time from a 9f race does not line up with the 2f 1st call time from races less than 9f). Also, after the 2nd call, the stretch call point starts to not agree with races which are of differing distances than today, so Projected Pace stops becoming useful. But the utility is found really in the first 2 call points, which is were the race will be decided for the Early running horses.

You can also adjust the chosen Projected Pace by right or left clicking on the Projected Pace boxes above the running times (hover your mouse to get instructions). This modifies the Projected Pace originally chosen by clicking on existing call times, and the colour schemes are modified accordingly. You might do this as a visual confirmation, or reminder, if an Early horse will not have to run as fast as his selected paceline shows (because no one else will challenge him to do so).

This tool does not affect velocity or energy computations, nor does it cause Early horses who will have to run faster than their shown early velocities to run slower in their later velocities (though that would be a very interesting interactive tool to have ...).

Hope that helps. (Joe, also check the email I sent you this morning).

yours,

Ted


33292

[joefour]

RIGHT CLICKING!

OK Ted, THANKS!

I got it now!

Joefour

[Mrbill]

Ted - thanks for the info here, but I have another question. How are horse with dissimilar distances handled? For example, the 7th race at Aqueduct this coming Saturday (1-5-13) has two horses that haven't run at route distances. Can you shed some insight on this for me?

Thanks,
Mr Bill

[Ted Craven]

Ted - thanks for the info here, but I have another question. How are horse with dissimilar distances handled? For example, the 7th race at Aqueduct this coming Saturday (1-5-13) has two horses that haven't run at route distances. Can you shed some insight on this for me?

Thanks,
Mr Bill

Bill,

Comparing sprints to short routes, the first 2 call times are all at the same distances (2f and 4f) so you can compare Projected Pace for the mix of sprinters and routers here.

33306

The clear E horse, the #2 sprinter appears to own much of the first 2 factions (RAW) as neither the #1, #3 or #6 appear to offer much of a challenge at the front end through 4f. The #4 faces the same or superior early call times as the #2, but will NOT be challenging the #2 for the lead.

I wish the #2 had shown more Late energy disbursement (L/ep, LPR, FX) - any sign that it can stretch out to ~8f. So, it's unknown what it will do past 6f. It will likely conserve some energy from facing less pressure early than shown, but who knows if it's enough to last against a consistent closer and late horse like the #1.

33307

But, re Projected Pace, you can compare early points of call in sprints versus short routes (< 9f).

Was that your question?

Ted

[Mrbill]

Your answer was fine Ted - thanks for the follow up. I appreciate you working the same race and offering your analysis.

Mr Bill