A question for Ted, or a moderator

[polambi]

My question is about "average pace" (AP). In "pace makes the race", Brohamer seemed to put a lot a weight on this rating. Is AP included in RDSS on a different name, or is it obsolete?

[Houndog]

My question is about "average pace" (AP). In "pace makes the race", Brohamer seemed to put a lot a weight on this rating. Is AP included in RDSS on a different name, or is it obsolete?

I am not a moderator here but from what I understand FW in RDSS would be similar to AP which Tom Brohamer speaks about in his book Modern Pace Handicapping.

The algorithm's may have been tweaked but I believe they represent the same thing.

To quote Dick Schmidt. Factor W

EP+SP=FW

EP is EARLY PACE, which is the average speed to the second call (routes or sprints) expressed in feet per second.

SP is SUSTAINED PACE, which is the third fraction in feet per second added to EP and divided by two.

I believe that Tom did call this Average Pace, but it is the same factor and works just the same. The two names were used interchangeably in the Sartin Methodology.

Tom also at times used Factor X, which is indeed the first and third fractions added together and divided by two and Turn Time, which is the second fraction alone. He always liked TT, as it had to be calculated and was not obvious in the PP's. Most people were too lazy to do it before computers made everything easy.

Dick

[Bill V.]

My question is about "average pace" (AP). In "pace makes the race", Brohamer seemed to put a lot a weight on this rating. Is AP included in RDSS on a different name, or is it obsolete?

Hi polamb

There is nothing from Tom Brohamer about Average pace in Pace Makes The Race
at least not in the original version

Did you mean Toms own book Modern Pace Handicapping

In the original Pace Makes The Race only 3 readouts are applied
Early Pace, Final Fraction -3rd fraction and Total Pace which
is EP + FF = Total Pace
Later in the book they do get into turn time and the very basics of
deceleration

All readouts of Pace Makes The Race / Phase 1 are easy to apply in
RDSS2
The headings are different but its on the TPR/E-L Tab
33471

[polambi]

Thanks Houndog for your answer. I knew the AP had to be somewhere in RDSS, because so much emphasiis was put on it.
Bill V, I would not have mentioned Brohamer's name in my question if I did not read the book myself. For your reference, it is the second edition of "Modern Pace Handicapping". On page 4, it says " Average Pace (AP) is the average of all three fractions in sprints, and the average of EP and SP in routes. By itself, Average Pace is the most consistent winner-producer of any rating in the array".

[polambi]

:cool: Bill, I just realized that I had mentioned "pace makes the race" in my initial post. My mistake. You were right. it is on "Modern Pace Handicapping". I own both books, which I had purchased at once. Some of the subjects are common to both books, which would explain my confusion.

[Ted Craven]

Here are my added thoughts, FWIW, though Houndog and Bill V have covered it pretty much.

Per Brohamer (per the Sartin Methodology Phase III, circa early 1990's):

Average Pace in sprints = the average of all 3 fractions. Whether you average factors [(F1+F2+F3) / 3] or simply sum them [F1+F2+F3] - you get the same information when you rank them or measure gaps between them. Total Energy (in RDSS) = F1+F2+F3, thus AP in sprints = Total Energy.

Average Pace in routes = (EP + SP) / 2 or (1/2 EP + 1/2 SP)

Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call.

Sustained Pace = SP = (EP+F3) / 2 or (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3)

So restating Average Pace in routes: (1/2 EP) plus (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3) or 1x EP plus 1/2 F3

In RDSS we have no factor which is 1 times Second call velocity (SC or EPR or EP) plus half of F3. Instead, we have 1x EPR plus 1x LPR (F3) = CPR (or TPR, if you prefer). Thus, CPR has more F3 in it than AP for routes (1x F3 versus 1/2 x F3)

Thus, in RDSS:

Total Energy = Average Pace in Sprints
CPR ~= Average Pace (AP) in routes (a bit more F3)

If AP = FW in Phase III (MPH), it became more nuanced later. In RDSS, FW in sprints = (2x EPR)+LPR. In routes, FW = EPR + (2x LPR).

The MPH FactorX (F1+F3) / 2 = RDSS FX = F1+F3 (same thing)
The MPH Turn Time (TT) = RDSS TT = F2 velocity
%Early EP/(EP+SP) evolved to %Median or (F1+F2) / (F1+F2+F3)

Hidden Energy is not given in MPH, but it is (roughly) F2+F3 = HID (in later Sartin DOS programs and in RDSS).

So that's the map between Modern Pace Handicapping (Sartin Phase III) factors and their equivalents in RDSS (and Speculator, Validator, Synthesis and other programs). RDSS factors other than these evolved since MPH times, covered in many Follow Ups (or by subsequent discussion here). MPH described factors are based on FPS velocity calculations, whereas in Pace makes the Race, EPR, LPR, TPR (or CPR) the calculations are based on a points based difference from a set of par times by distance - but they amount to fundamentally the same measurements.

Of course, in later software (and RDSS) all running times (and velocities and points-based factors) are adjusted by a Daily Track Variant, an Inter-Track variant (DTV and ITV supplied by TrackMaster), a distance equalization to today's distance and a surface equalization factor (calculated internally).

cheers,

Ted

[Bill V.]

:cool: Bill, I just realized that I had mentioned "pace makes the race" in my initial post. My mistake. You were right. it is on "Modern Pace Handicapping". I own both books, which I had purchased at once. Some of the subjects are common to both books, which would explain my confusion.

No problem.I had a feeling thats what you meant
Good Skill and welcome to the Sartin Methodology

Bill

[polambi]

:)Ted, Thanks very much for your elaborate input. I am glad I asked that question, because, after reading about the AP, in "Pace makes the race", I was considering purchasing a separate software, just to calculate the AP for me, since I did not see it anywhere in RDSS. I will be paying more attention to "TE" and "CPR" from now on.
Thanks.

[Bill V.]

:)Ted, Thanks very much for your elaborate input. I am glad I asked that question, because, after reading about the AP, in "Pace makes the race", I was considering purchasing a separate software, just to calculate the AP for me, since I did not see it anywhere in RDSS. I will be paying more attention to "TE" and "CPR" from now on.
Thanks.

Modern Pace Handicapping !!!! not P.M.T.R.:rolleyes:

[Fowler CR]

I have 2 members of Pace and Cap trying to help me downlod the program and after several hours of frustation, we still have not accomplished our goal. Will you please give me the phone number of someone who can help me and I will call them. My phone number is 501-525-3035.

Thanks,
Bob Fowler

[Ted Craven]

Bob, I'm out of town for the day, but will call you late this afternoon. Meanwhile, since both Rick and the Dr have downloaded RDSS successfully several times, why not ask their assistance again.

Ted

[atkinsrr]

Ted...just wondering if anyone out there is keeping a model from their SECONDARY CONTENDERS list...I'm reviewing this past weekends Rebel Stakes and I'm trying to figure
out how this horse Will Take Charge could have been bet...Hiding Super 99 was the easy part...considering his low odds...but hiding Oxbow, Dens Legacy, and Delhomme...all at good odds is hard to do. Will Take Charge was #7 BLBL on my first run and did have a 2 ranking in EPR...horses that pay like this happen every year on the Derby trail..and usually they are hard to get...just wondering if anyone has kept models over the years on these kind of horses...I know I don't but going to start doing that...got to find a way to get these kind of winners...Thx...Randy

[Bill V.]

Seems like your going to be doing a lot of work. Would this model show that these are young still developing horses in growth
Many of which are still learning, and there are horses with no chance just causing traffic and trouble ,They are being shipped all over.
and running on new tracks?

The more I read your question the more I see the answers
why Will Take Charge won

"It happens all the time on the Derby Trail "
I would rather just focus on the true contenders and
win my percentage

[atkinsrr]

Bill..thx for the post...yes happens all the time on the derby trail....just re-worked the race he's still hard to get...would have required a 3rd win bet in the race...but sometimes that works...just have to know when to do it....ok let's concentrate on the next month...got more big races in store......best to all

[Ted Craven]

Randy,

Afterwards, I tried 9 ways to Sunday to push and pull that horse into betting position. Definitely a case for saying the race runs OTE with all the speedballs running each other down, but then the winner was not up there among my OTE's (I favoured Den and Treasure to stretch out).

I haven't heard of folks modelling secondary contenders, and I'm not even sure what that means. For me, a secondary contender is one which might pick up a piece of 2nd-4th. A horse which stands a chance to inherit the lead from tiring Earlies deserves a spot on my Primary Contender list. The winner did not show it had the chops in its Graded company races.

So I have to go with what Bill says - that some 3 YOs simply are ready to improve and rise to the occasion presented to them during the race. That's what improving 3YOs do on the Road to the Roses - and at the darndest times. It's exciting to watch and think about these races, but they're not my prime betting races - too many unknowns. I much prefer older stakes races.

Time to just move on to another race, IMO.

Ted

[atkinsrr]

Ted..thx for your answer..I also prefer older horses which is mostly what I do...but was just kinda wondering if anyone might have considered the winner in that race (Rebel)and what they might have done to get it

[Segwin]

Thanks for the info Ted. With the cold weather brining most everything to a standstill I've been wandering the isles here and browsing.

This could be linked to the glossary thread.

[SamP]

Ted you stated that "Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call."

When I look at EPR, on the TPR + EL tab, I see figures in the 80's and 90's. When I look at SC,on the POH tab, I see figures in the 50's. How is EPR calculated?

[Ted Craven]

Ted you stated that "Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call."

When I look at EPR, on the TPR + EL tab, I see figures in the 80's and 90's. When I look at SC,on the POH tab, I see figures in the 50's. How is EPR calculated?

Sam,

The EPR (Early Pace Rating) and the SC Second Call Velocity numbers, and ranks for each - should be almost identical to each other. They are simply calculated in different ways. EPR is a component of the points based rating system (Total Pace Ratings - TPR) described in the book Pace Makes the Race, by Hambleton, Pizzolla, Schmidt, Sartin et al in 1991 ('an intro to the Sartin Methodology'). Essentially, a baseline 2nd call time (adjusted) in sprints and routes is given a 100 point rating, then times slower than that are less than 100 and times faster are greater than 100. The same 100 points basis is established for the 3rd Fraction, equalized at the various different 3rd fraction distances according to total race distance. The concept calculations described in PMTR are essentially what we use today in RDSS.

That EPR points rating still relies upon a 2nd call time (adjusted). The same 2nd call time is also expressed as a velocity - which is what is shown on the Velocity Tabs. The original Yellow Manual, and also Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping describe how to calculate velocities = feet per second values which are often in the 50's at the 2nd call point.

So both velocity-based, and points-based representations of 'average speed' during a race segment (e.g. from beginning to the 2nd call point) show the same thing - in different ways. The ranks of the different races, and horses, measured are the same. Also the same is the 2nd Call Computed Beaten Length number on the Segments screen. They ALL mean the same thing.

Additionally, for the EPR factor, when you look on the Primary Factors Tab, you will see numbers which represent difference from best (in percent), with 0.0% meaning: the best figure (i.e. of all a horse's PPs, or comparing all horses to each other, on the Analysis panel's Primary Tab). In addition to the same rank info you get from all the other 2nd call related factors, you also see the gap between the different lines. Example - a 2nd ranked EPR (or any other factor) with a gap of 0.5% is much closer to the best than a 2nd ranked EPR with a gap of 2.0.

Hope that helps.

Ted

[SamP]

Thanks Ted. I have Modern Pace Handicapping and I understand how to calculate velocities. Now, with the help of your excellent explanation of EPR, I have a better understanding of the TPR + EL tab.

Sam

[Ted Craven]

Sam,

Thanks, but my 'excellent' EPR (TPR figs) explanation was really more of a conceptual overview - pretty scant on details. I would actually suggest that getting the book 'Pace Makes the Race' Edition 1 (Hard cover) would be a worthy investment. Not only will you see the complete TPR formulas and explanation of the concepts (and be grateful you have software to do those calculations!), but other sections by Doc on on Psychology, Pizzollas Fulcrum, etc together with lots of examples - belong in any serious student's library.

You can usually find some copies floating around on Amazon - start with the entry for that book in the Sartin Amazon Bookstore: http://astore.amazon.com/sartinmethodo-20/detail/096307430X

cheers,

Ted

[SamP]

I just ordered Pace Makes The race from Amazon.

One more question, I saw the video from TrackMaster about their Speed ratings, and they say the ratings are adjusted. Why does RDSS adjust the TrackMaster ratings, and what value is being used? At first I thought that if today's race is 8fl and the pp line is for 6fl that the 6fl rating was being adjusted to 8fl. But 8fl pp lines are also being adjusted.

[Ted Craven]

Sam,

RDSS does not further adjust TrackMaster ratings. RDSS uses TrackMaster provided Daily Track Variants (DTV - displayed) and Inter-Track Variants (ITV - not displayed), plus a distance equalization system to adjust ALL pacelines from all tracks and surfaces and distances to today's surface and distance at a hypothetical 'norm' track - and not to today's track. Thus all resulting adjusted running times are (hypothetically) comparable to each other - as are the subsequent velocity and compound factors and Line Scores.

RDSS displays TrackMaster SR (a different number from our internally created Adjusted Speed Rating) for comparison purposes and also for when no Adjusted SR can be created (e.g. foreign races). RDSS doesn't use that TrackMaster SR for any other adjustment, not does it adjust that SR at all (if you check the Equibase/TrackMaster PPs - the number is the same).

Did that answer it?

Ted

[SamP]

Thanks Ted. As always, a very comprehensive, easy to understand answer.


Sam