Why NOT Maidens?

[For The Lead]

In all probability, this will not be a real popular topic, but I'm putting it up here anyway. The idea is for this to be educational, so here it goes.

In general, the Sartin Methodology dismisses maiden races, but should you?

I'm aware that most people avoid maidens like the plague. But why? Some of the best plays I find come in maidens races.
Like any other type of race, you have to understand the race that you have in front of you.
Now I’m not suggesting that you bet a maiden race that is full of first time starters, however, first time starters don’t win that large of a percentage of maiden races, so as long as there is just a couple of them I don’t mind. I can just throw them out.

The other thing to take note of is, the number of lifetime races a maiden has. A maiden that continues to run without winning, learns to lose! Many times these types of maidens are the ones that are bet down to favoritism because they show good running lines, having run second and third several times.

Also, I’m not a fan of maidens scheduled to run on the turf. In fact, I definitely avoid those races. Actually, I prefer sprint races, but sometimes routes will do just fine.

Finally, in general, if you are looking for the best speed ratings and best third fractions, perhaps maidens are the wrong place to look.

Looking at 2 consecutive years of maiden races, both maiden special weight and maiden claiming that consisted of more than 22,000 races, the following were my findings:

About 52% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the first call.
About 63% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the second call.

Maidens, especially young maidens, haven’t learned how to run yet. Many of them don’t take kindly to rating. They just want to come out of the gate and run as fast and as far as they can. So the statistics bear this out. What you should be looking for is the horse that is the fastest early. Many times this horse establishes a lead and just goes on with it.

When it comes to line selection, unless a maiden won and got disqualified, you obviously don’t have winning lines to choose from. Therefore you are left with lines where the horse may have run 2nd or 3rd. You also have to consider lines where the horse was running 1st or 2nd at the first call, even if it fades from there. My line selection procedure in maiden races is no different than any other type of race.

I looked at the maiden races from the last couple of days at the tracks I like to follow. There were 10 of them. Three of these races did not produce the winner from among my contenders. Some of the winning races had only 2 contenders. Some of them had short prices such as $6 or $7, but then there were others that make it all worthwhile, just like in any other type of race.

The following posts will show the screen shots from the various races. I will also offer some commentary.

[For The Lead]

There were only two contenders here, so for those who bet 2 horses per race there really isn't anything to do. Either play or pass based on the odds.

The winner, #3, paid $6.60.

[For The Lead]

Here is another race with just 2 contenders. If you must bet 2 horses, your only decision here is to play or pass based on odds. If you are looking for a 1 horse bet, take particular note of the the running lines and "RS" for the 2 contenders, that will point you in the right direction.

Then you can follow all the things I have marked.

The winner, #3, paid $7.20.

[For The Lead]

My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.

[For The Lead]

Here is the race that makes it worthwhile.
I have 5 contenders.
Take note of the various markings that lead to the winner.

The winner, #6, paid $37.40.

[For The Lead]

This is another nice paying winner.

Start by taking note of the running lines and "RS".
Then the "TPR" section certainly shows this winner's early domination.
Again, on the "segments" screen, the winner's early domination is clear.

The winner, #3, paid $11.60.
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[For The Lead]

Another nice priced winner.

Looking at the lines, it is easy to find the early horse, not just in the running lines, but in the "RS" designations. Also, two of these contenders are running back for today's claiming price while the third is moving up a couple of classes.

The "segments" screen also points out what a clear early advantage the winner had.

The winner, #4, paid $13.00.

[Bill V.]

Good lesson FTL thank you

I think your showing a real stong factor.
Your commentary of the horse on the lead in the first two fractions
supports the idea of maidens who struggle on the turn
and lose all chance to the lead horses


Here is Doc's comments on maidens from Pace Makes The Race
in the turn time article page 336

"Some horses,especially maidens, tend to loaf on the turn. This comes from fear of the turn based on inexperience and the inability to change leads.
(stepping off the proper rear foot) Maidens who can run superior turn times are frequent winners next time out"

[For The Lead]

My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.

[For The Lead]

Here is another race with just 2 contenders. Again, two horse players have one choice, play or pass.

Notice that these two horses are close on "RS" with one horse being "P5" and the other "P6".

There is a possibility that the difference in times and rankings are a result of one horse being rated on an 8.3f race, while the other horse is being rated on a 9.0f race.

The winner, #2, paid $7.20.

[For The Lead]

This is an interesting race for the following reason.
THERE IS NOT AN EARLY HORSE AMONG THE CONTENDERS!
Just look at the running lines.
What I'm going to say next applies to ALL TYPES of races. When you end up with nothing but pressers and closers among you contenders, one of them will rank #1 early. One of them will show best on the F1 section of the segments screen. One of them will show fastest on EPR on the TPR screen.
Does this mean that is the early horse in the race?
ABSOLUTELY NOT!!

Early horses are early horses.
OTHER THAN early horses are OTHER THAN early!!!

So in this race there is no early horse to "zero in on", even though the winner showed best on F1 on the segments screen. In this race the BL/BL may be the right place to look. In this case it was. The winner actually came from off the pace to win the race.

One last note. Check the class on the running lines screen. The winner is the only horse among the contenders that is dropping down a couple of classes for this race. This is always a help to maidens.

The winner, #4, paid $6.20.

[For The Lead]

My contenders did not produce the winner of this race.

[For The Lead]

So just to recap, the ten races mentioned here were run on 2 consecutive days, at 3 different tracks on 2 different surfaces.

The total return of the 7 winners comes to $89.20.
Some would have been "high odds" bets, while some may have been "low odds" bets.
Either way I'm sure you can see these were profitable races.

[polambi]

For The Lead, thanks for a great post about maidens. A lot of us do avoid those maidens. You are totally right about that. But I recognize that there are opportunities there, since there is never a shortage of maiden races, and their mutual is not that bad, compared to the non-maiden races that are more predictable by the public, and therefore overbet.
Thanks to your post, I am willing to take the dive. I will let you know when I catch my first big one. Have a good day.
Paul

[Bill V.]

Did anybody work yeaterdays Santa Anita maiden race using FTL's outline

If you had you would have been very happy
The track was wet/fast and no turf

Bill

[alydar_ David]

I'd be interested in seeing your stats for EP regardless of running style.

For sprints, I suspect you'll find significantly more winners showed a top EP rating in MCL than MSW.

[For The Lead]

Did anybody work yeaterdays Santa Anita maiden race using FTL's outline

If you had you would have been very happy
The track was wet/fast and no turf

Bill

You're right, Bill.

I wasn't going to post the maiden races from SA yesterday because it really isn't a study of what it takes from a running style point of view, which is how I started this thread.
However, it is still worthwhile posting from a "contender selection" point of view. I'm just going to post up the "original" screen for each race.

RACE #2....none of my contenders won this race.

RACE #4....here's the screen shot. The winner, #12, paid $35.60.

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RACE #5....here's the screen shot. The winner, #3, paid $3.40.

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RACE #8....here's the screen shot. The winner, #11, paid $16.00.
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For those not keeping track, this makes 10 winners from 14 races with a total return of $144.20.

[JIMBOB1002]

Thought I would jump in with this one
from yesterday. I only had 2 contenders.
I wanted to thank FTL this was an excellent post
he started.

[JIMBOB1002]

***

[Bill V.]

It took a while I had some success with maiden earlys but I wanted to wait for the LONE E8
I got it tonight race 6 from Penn

I only bet $2 but 14/1 is nice
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[Ted Craven]

Bill,

Once the Running Style formula is tuned up a bit, would it be helpful to show the array of Running Styles for each race (and Early Speed Points) in the My Races tool so you could search for, for example, Maiden Races with exactly 1 E8 ?

Ted

[vderdak]

I hit him too, also the one at SA today, same thing, lone early at a bit over 10-1 odds in the final race.

[polambi]

Great catch on this maiden win, Bill V!
I have an eye on those maidens too.

[For The Lead]

Great job bill.

I was going to post this race, so I got all my screens together and marked the important areas so everyone could follow along. When I got to the the thread....there was your post!!! Oh well, as long as somebody put it up here for everyone to see, that's all that matters. :)

And congratulations to those that hit this horse or other maidens like it! Good Job.

I finished my post with the following:

In Las Vegas there is a old saying. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
Well, make that a STEAK DINNER!!!!

[lone speed]

It took a while I had some success with maiden earlys but I wanted to wait for the LONE E8
I got it tonight race 6 from Penn

I only bet $2 but 14/1 is nice
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Bill....

It might be interesting if we can cut off the paceline from #4 Kohl and we come with a virtual line of Kohl only running a 5 furlong race......The Hat talked many times of using virtual lines....so I don't see why we can't come up with one in this situation....

We would use the same beaten lengths but for the finish beaten lengths, we use 5 lengths as the final beaten lengths....

i.e.
5 furlongs....22.9 47.7 100.5 beaten lengths use 0 0 .hd and 5 lengths

depending on what programs you are using...

thoromation--no speed ratings required...

others----use what a 5 lengths finish behind a time of 100.5 correlates at the current track at Penn for 5 furlongs...

I am sure that #4 Kohl would be in the top of readouts....:)


Good skills

[For The Lead]

Bill....

It might be interesting if we can cut off the paceline from #4 Kohl and we come with a virtual line of Kohl only running a 5 furlong race......The Hat talked many times of using virtual lines....so I don't see why we can't come up with one in this situation....

We would use the same beaten lengths but for the finish beaten lengths, we use 5 lengths as the final beaten lengths....

i.e.
5 furlongs....22.9 47.7 100.5 beaten lengths use 0 0 .hd and 5 lengths

depending on what programs you are using...

thoromation--no speed ratings required...

others----use what a 5 lengths finish behind a time of 100.5 correlates at the current track at Penn for 5 furlongs...

I am sure that #4 Kohl would be in the top of readouts....:)


Good skills

I know you asked this question of Bill V., but since I started this thread and since the whole idea behind the thread was identifying maiden winners by their early speed, regardless of finish, what you are suggesting would defeat the entire purpose of the thread.

And speaking of "on top", the $30 winner in Bill V.'s most recent post was "on top" at the first fraction, "on top" at the second fraction" and "on top" at the second call. The purpose behind this thread was to show how horses that are "on top" at these positions of the race are oft times "ON TOP" at the end of the race....regardless of their previous finish.

[lone speed]

I know you asked this question of Bill V., but since I started this thread and since the whole idea behind the thread was identifying maiden winners by their early speed, regardless of finish, what you are suggesting would defeat the entire purpose of the thread.

And speaking of "on top", the $30 winner in Bill V.'s most recent post was "on top" at the first fraction, "on top" at the second fraction" and "on top" at the second call. The purpose behind this thread was to show how horses that are "on top" at these positions of the race are oft times "ON TOP" at the end of the race....regardless of their previous finish.

For the Lead….

You are one of the few posters on this board whose messages I value and respect. This demeanor of yours in this post seems out of character. It was not my intention to change the focus of this thread or to twist the thread. I was focused on presenting an idea when the opportunity presented itself….I was not thinking about your thread or your focus on this topic…..

There are many ways to dissect an issue….nothing is dogmatic or is set in stone….More than one way to skin a cat….anyways…..

I will always look forward to your posts….since I value your opinions on this open and public board…..

Cheers

[For The Lead]

For the Lead….

You are one of the few posters on this board whose messages I value and respect. This demeanor of yours in this post seems out of character. It was not my intention to change the focus of this thread or to twist the thread. I was focused on presenting an idea when the opportunity presented itself….I was not thinking about your thread or your focus on this topic…..

There are many ways to dissect an issue….nothing is dogmatic or is set in stone….More than one way to skin a cat….anyways…..

I will always look forward to your posts….since I value your opinions on this open and public board…..

Cheers

I apologize if I offended you in any way.

[lone speed]

I apologize if I offended you in any way.


For the Lead...

None taken....:)

As I said...you are one of the few posters whose opinions I valued...I have saved many of your postings and ideas that you have presented in my personal files to research and to utilize in this endeavor...We are in this forum to learn and to advance our personal skills and mindsets to enhance our knowledge and roi's...


Please continue your valued posts.....:cool:

[Bill V.]

Hello LS

I suppose we can make a new paceline but in essence thats not needed
here.

Some lessons I have picked up from FTL

1. "Can't anybody bet a horse unless the program they're using tells them the horse is the FASTEST horse based on final time??"

2. The winner here owns the F1 , Turn Time and EPR Dream races
fractions.

3 If a horse can win from position 8 5 2 1 in one match up why can't a horse in the correct match up win with positions 1 2 5 8 ?

From Doc Sartin

Look at the 3 calls of Phase 1 not just the TPR
Look for a acceptable balance between EP and FF
Know what a winners 3rd fraction pararameters are at the tracks you wager
by class level, high Medium and Average
This was a low level MC race at 5.5


Even with the pace line as is Thoromation gets the 4 horse

Here are some screens
I have made 4 stop action screens On thoromation The 4 wins the race
but at the very last instint the 3 horses bunch up to look like a 3 horse
dead heat

But look at the race in thoromation at the 3 calls and take note of the
advantage early the 4 has

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[lone speed]

Bill...


As usual, thank you for taking the time to posyt the screenshots of Thoromation...

I shouldn't have interjected this thread...my post was more about concept...I should have started a different thread....this horse was 14 to one because the public seemed fixated on the finish and beaten lengths at the finish line...

As I have posted in another thread, the horse the sets the pace of a race is always the one who expended the most energy....I have zero problems betting a horse who seem to falter in the stretch after setting a blitzing early fractions. I have focused many years researching the early matchup but with a different twist with Bradshaw's matchup principles as a guide...



I appreciate your time teaching and showing examples here immensely...

Sincerely,

Lone speed

Fwiw,I had chose my screen name deliberately, as I will always seek a race where there is a lone speed on the front end of a race.....

[nysbill]

Maiden races containing a number of first time starters can be lucrative. Will a 1st tmr win? The only way to tell is to have reliable pace, speed, and pedigree data. If the runners in a maiden race that have raced have very low speed #s and no extenuating circumstances to explain them then a 1st tmr is where to look. If anyone is interested in greater detail reach me and I'll take the time to provde my insight.

[Bill Lyster]

In a field with six first time starters and 3 who had some experience, the fastest early paid over 7:1

Thanks FTL

[Bill V.]

Hi Bill L

Hey Bill, you know were I hang out at Surfside at Del Mar
I'm sitting with the SA monitor right in front of me.

I watch this 7 horse win and only then when I see 7/1 do I look at the race
A LONE E8 7-1 !!!!!!

Asleep at the wheel !!

Bill If you throw out the 1 off over 150 days
it even make the race easier !

GS
Bill

[lone speed]

Hi Bill L

Hey Bill, you know were I hang out at Surfside at Del Mar
I'm sitting with the SA monitor right in front of me.

I watch this 7 horse win and only then when I see 7/1 do I look at the race
A LONE E8 7-1 !!!!!!

Asleep at the wheel !!

Bill If you throw out the 1 off over 150 days
it even make the race easier !

GS
Bill

Doc Sartin always wrote in the follow up that our inner voice is just as important as the readouts in front of us....We must strive to control our "self talk" as sometimes we may find ourselves caught in web with our inner voices.....

It doesn't matter, Bill....at least you are aware of what kind of races and the model of the match up that you are looking for....(the Lone E-8 runner in a maiden race)

Repetition of successful patterns....

Looking forward to your next successful post....

Good skills

[For The Lead]

Good job by Bill L hitting that maiden winner and “thanks” for posting it up here.

I had 5 cards on my plate for yesterday, PRX, LRL, PEN, SA and TP. Unfortunately, PRX cancelled. Just as unfortunate, LRL had no maiden races, so I was left with SA, TP and PEN, so I thought I would post all the maiden races. Keep in mind, I do not do turf races, so I was left with a total of 8 maiden races. Also keep in mind, this thread was about “early” horses in maiden races.

The results are, there were 4 winners from these 8 races. Here are the prices of those 4 winners;

TP 2nd $15.80
SA 7th $17.00
PEN 4th $12.40
PEN 8th $12.60
The total return comes to $57.80.

If you played two horses per race, even where it wasn’t necessary, and based on a flat bet of $2 on each horse, your investment would have been $32.00, giving you a profit of $25.80. That’s an ROI of almost 81%. Not bad.

I’ll comment very briefly on the races where the winner was not among the contenders and post screen shots where the winner was among the contenders.

In the second race at TP there were 6 contenders, therefore it would make sense for two horse bettors to play the two early types.
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In the 9th race at TP there were just 3 contenders. None of them won.

In the 5th race at SA there were just 3 contenders. None of them won.

In the 7th race at SA there were just 2 contenders. It is clear that just one of these horses were of the early type, so I really see no need to bet 2 horses.
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In the 10th race at SA there were just 3 contenders. None of them won.

[For The Lead]

In the 1st race at PEN there were just 3 contenders. None of them won.


In the 4th race at PEN there were just 3 contenders. Here are the screen shots.
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In the 8th race at PEN there were 4 contenders. with 4 contenders I guess it makes sense for the two horse bettors to bet the two early types.
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[ray lopez]

FTL, what if the horse that is projected to be the on the lead at the 1st call is also the projected leader at the second call? Will you just bet that one horse to win ? or do you bet a second horse to win also ? How do you look for a second-horse-win-bet?
Thanks.

Ray

[For The Lead]

FTL, what if the horse that is projected to be the on the lead at the 1st call is also the projected leader at the second call? Will you just bet that one horse to win ? or do you bet a second horse to win also ? How do you look for a second-horse-win-bet?
Thanks.

Ray

Many times the horse that has the lead at the first call is projected as the leader at the second call. This is common place. However, the best case scenario is for a horse to have the best first fraction (first call) time AND the best second fraction time. Obviously, this horse will show as having the best first fraction time AND the best second call time, but understand the difference. Don't lose sight of the fact that this is the best case scenario and not the only scenario in which the first fraction horse can go on to win.

Having the best first fraction time is self explanatory.
Having the best second fraction time means that this same early horse is running faster (or at the same pace) than all the horses behind it. When this is true, the horses attempting to make up ground on the leader is impossible. They just can't make up any ground if the leader isn't slowing down. In this scenario, the horse on the lead has a huge advantage.

RDSS provides the means to see these different scenarios. On the "segments screen" there are a couple of sections. One shows the computerized beaten lengths. This is at the first call (F1) AND the second call.
The section to the right of this shows the first fraction (F1) AND the second fraction (F2). The best second fraction (F2) horse could be any horse in the race. It could be the horse running dead last at the first call or it could be the horse on the lead at the first call or any horse in between. Where you see a horse that is last in the computed beaten lengths section at F1 and first for F2 in the incremental match up area, this does not mean this horse now has the lead at the second call. It only means it was running the fastest during the second fraction.

As far as how I bet, I am a one horse bettor. I either get it right with one horse or I don't. I spent many years as a one horse bettor, then I found the Sartin Methodology. At that point I became a two horse bettor in order to follow the methodology concepts. Later I went back to betting one horse.

If you look at my last post, right above your post, take a look at the 7th race at SA. There were only two contenders. It is obvious that only one of those two horses are of the early type and since an early type is the focus of the thread, you only need to bet that one horse. Now, if you are uncomfortable with only betting one horse, then bet both horses, I just feel the second bet is not worthwhile.

Finally, look at the the post of the 8th race at PEN.
In this race there are 4 contenders. If you look at the "computed beaten lengths" area it is easy to see that the #5 horse is the fastest first fraction horse. And as I stated above, this horse is also projected as the fastest "second call" horse. However, if you look to the right in the "incremental match up" area, you can see that the fastest second fraction horse is the #1 horse. Now look back at the "computed beaten lengths" area. You can see under the second call section that although the #5 shows best at the second call, the #1 is only 0.40 (less than 1/2 length) behind the leader. Notice that these two horses have a clear advantage over the other two horses at that point in the race. If the #5 does not go on to win, which horse is in the best position to win the race turning for home? The #1 and therefore the #1 would be your second bet.

I hope this helps.

[Bill V.]

Here are the PP's and my comments
this is race 1 Penn 2/14/13
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[Bill V.]

5 6 7

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Here is the result chart
The 3 did get the lead but tired the 1A battled but in the end
the 5 wins
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[polambi]

Hi Bill V,
Thanks for the teaching. I have one quick question : What is considered a + paceline or plus race? Thanks.
Paul

[Bill V.]

Hi Bill V,
Thanks for the teaching. I have one quick question : What is considered a + paceline or plus race? Thanks.
Paul

Hi Paul



A plus + pace line is any line in which the horse finishes first second or third

[polambi]

Thanks Bill V.
I wasn't sure. Now I know exctly what it is. Believe it or not, I had been looking for an imaginary + sign in the pacelines :)

Thanks again.
Paul

[vderdak]

Aqueduct Race 10 Winner #7 Bwana Booyah pays $44.20 to win, I saw the race to late to get my bet down, locked out, but again early speed wins.

I did get my bet down at Delta Race 10 - #7 Mission to Collect who paid $47.40 to win, he had the best two early fractions coming from the Fair Grounds.

I'm not very good a showing charts like the others but I hope some of my fellow handicapers collected on these two as well.

[For The Lead]

Sorry you missed getting a bet down on this horse.
Since you are not familiar with putting screen shots in your posts, I thought I would put up mine. I don't know if these are the horses and lines you used, but, it's what I used. By the way, I was not watching AQU on Saturday, so I didn't have this winner either. It's a good example though.

[vderdak]

Thanks for showing, I did have similar contenders.

[Bill Lyster]

FTL:
Occasionally I find races like this, where one horse has run against a significantly faster set of internal fractions than the others, but who, does not qualify under your usual qualification standards.

This is not the only example that I could post like this, but I was wondering, if you consider a play like this, how much better do the first and 2nd fractions need to be in order to not exclude horses like the 12 which paid$14.80? The 13 placed BTW.

Thanks,

[For The Lead]

FTL:
Occasionally I find races like this, where one horse has run against a significantly faster set of internal fractions than the others, but who, does not qualify under your usual qualification standards.

This is not the only example that I could post like this, but I was wondering, if you consider a play like this, how much better do the first and 2nd fractions need to be in order to not exclude horses like the 12 which paid$14.80? The 13 placed BTW.

Thanks,

Hi Bill,

If a horse does not qualify under my usual standards and it wins, I lose the race if in fact I bet the race.

I don't pick contenders or pace lines based on time.
I pick contenders based on performance and then evaluate times.

I picked a random race from this thread. Here is the "original" screen shot.
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From this screen shot you can see how each of these contenders might be expected to run, giving you an idea of which horse may benefit most from the match up of the contenders before ever looking at times. Your program of choice will help you with separating these contenders based on time or pointing out the horse that will benefit most from the match up.



Now let's take a look at the race you posted.
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With respect to the eventual winner, #12, what can you learn from this original screen? Will this horse run early? Will it press? Will it run late? There is no "style" associated with the chosen line, so it's almost impossible to tell. In a 6 horse field it ran 6th at the first call beaten 4.1 lengths, 6th at the second call beaten 7.1 lengths, 6th at the stretch call beaten 9.6 lengths and 4th at the finish beaten 12 lengths. So while trailing the field the entire race to the stretch call and losing lengths at every call, it finally had a couple of tiring horses back up into it to be 4th at the finish.
Now some people will say, "the program will show us how the horse will disburse its' energy thereby telling us how it will run." In response I say, "good luck with that."

In my life, I have seen more horses than I could possibly count, or even imagine, that were slow horses coming out of a fast race, only to run another dull race in much slower time.

As I have said before, nothing in horse racing is 100% be it of a positive nature or a negative nature. The best we can hope for is to be right often enough to make a profit. The best way to achieve a profit is to be consistent in your approach. When I was a young guy in this game, I read a book where the author suggested that the worst thing you can do is get "caught in the switches". To "zig" when you should have "zagged". It made a big impression on me and taught me to be consistent in my approach.

Now this #12 horse had only one race and there are SO-O-O-O many things that may have gone wrong in that race that it is impossible to know which thing it made have been or maybe it was just the need of a competitive race rather than just a workout. Were blinkers added or any number of other corrections from the first race made? Perhaps a 40% drop in class helped.

[Bill Lyster]

FTL as always thanks for the detailed explanation. In this example, at least when I handicapped it, I noted that the #12 ran against the fastest pace of last race and did my matchup on that basis, matching it against the #3.

I agree that running style is still a mystery at this stage of this horses career, but the fact that it lost ground against a 21.3-44.2 looked like an early horse in a fast race. Adjusting by 4 and then by 5 lengths or positions at the first and second calls vs #3 puts it close to that pace of race should it be run again. And then, the fact that the other two race against 46 paces which makes their late runs even harder to produce against a 45.3 2nd fraction made the #12 my second choice.

I don't always get matchup pictures as clear as this, but it did help in this instance. Perhaps I should have posted this followup in the Matchup section.

A couple of years back I did a maiden study that focused on early fractions as shown on the TPR screen. My choice parameters were top three early figures from the best early race instead of last race, so my selection process was not as focused as yours. What seemed to be a cutoff point for inclusion of the best early times was any TPR that was within 12 points of the best TPL, so if the best horse had a TPR of 180, the lowest ranked of the top three EP would only be included if it had a TPR of 168. That in itself suggests but does not define a maximum positive E/L for horses that show early speed in their last race. so this is just a long winded way to my question.

At some point do you consider an E/L to be too high relative to the field to include as a contender, assuming the horse has met your other choice guidelines?

Thanks again for all your patience.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

What I meant to say, but didn't get to in the last post was that I have gone back and rehandicapped all of the maiden races that I have from the start of Santa Anita. I have not tabulated the results so far, but I can tell you that the number of high odds winners WAY outweighs handicapping maiden races any other way than FTL has layed out for us. When there end up being only two contenders after eliminations it often happens that they run 1-3 and if the two contenders are best of all contenders, running 1-2 occurs often enough.

Thanks again FTL

Bill

[For The Lead]

I haven’t posted anything in this thread for a while, so I decided to post a couple of winners from yesterday.
Now I’m not trying to make everybody maiden race players, but I do want to show that there is money to be made from maiden races. Naturally, like any other kind of race, you are not going to win them all, but when you consider some of the prices you get, you don’t need to!!

Here’s the winner, #6. It paid $15.40. It has just one start, 15 days ago, where it fought for the lead through the first two calls at today’s class level.
33957

Here is the #9 horse. I thought I would explain the reason for including this horse as a contender. (1) It is dropping down from 20k to 5k. Notice the improvement from its’ first race vs. Maiden Special Weight to 20k. (2) That improvement propelled this horse close to the lead at the first call last race. I want to see how it matches up to the #6 horse who is obviously going for the lead.
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Then I thought I would show the #11 and #12. First #11.
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Notice that this horse is “0 for 35”. I wouldn't bet this horse with your money!! In fact, I would take your money and bet it on some other horse, because this horse has 2 chances of winning…slim and none…regardless of how it shows on the BL/BL. An “0 for 35” maiden is just a horrible bet. Now here comes the best part…
THEY MADE THIS HORSE THE FAVORITE!!!!!

Now the #12 horse.
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This horse comes in as the second WORST horse in the race at “0 for 19”.

I mean, you just have to love a race where there are two horses like these. It appears they have all the credentials, but they can be dismissed out of hand.

Next post will be the screen shots and chart of the race.

[For The Lead]

Ok, here are the usual screen shots I post along with the chart of the race.

The main thing I'm looking for here is whether or not the #6 can make the lead.

Notice that the #11 and #12 are the top 2 horses on the BL/BL screen and have almost all the #1 and #2 rankings.....except #1 for EPR. #6 has that.

[For The Lead]

And I couldn't let the day go by without posting this one.

Here are the contenders. There are only two of them, so two horse bettors have nothing else to do except walk to the window and bet!!
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Now I want to show you the winner.
Just one race 23 days ago where it ran 2nd beat 3.5 lengths.
33967

Now I want to show you the favorite.
33966

It has two races. One was 24 days ago and the other was "332" days ago.
I think it is obvious that the public made this horse the favorite on the strength of this horses first race which was at BEL. It''s a nice race, just 332 days old.
The public completely ignored its' most recent DULL RACE.

Our contender, whose ML was 10/1 paid $56.20!!!!!
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[Dorianmode]

Very interesting thread. I also have started looking at some of these races for the first time, and having good success. The criteria I have is that there has to be some sign that at least one or two of the horses in the race has run in the recent past like it actually wants to win. If it's just a collection of "nags", then I won't touch it, but some of the high classs , (esp MSW) races are just as good as any other race.

[atlasaxis]

FTL, you're an absolute GENIUS, after the fact. Try posting these BEFORE the race is run without the redboarding. Seriously, ya gotta laugh at this stuff.

.

Please Note: several posts responding to this comment about 'red-boarding' were moved to their own Thread here --> http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=89442 in order that this Thread could continue to be focused on teaching about Maiden races. Kindly make responses related to the 'red-boarding' topic in the NEW Thread. Thanks! TED
.
.

[Bill V.]

Back in my youth I met a young lady who was going to college at the university
of Delaware . She was a beauty, We spent the summer of 1980 going down to the Jersey shore. She always wore a blue tee shirt over her bathing suit
when we walked around guys would always say HI HO Pimlico
I had no idea what Pimlico was !

But Now when I see opening day at Pimlico I get a big smile

Here is race 2 today a MS 40000 I only had lines for 3 horse
following FTL's guidelines

The 7 was 6-1 when I bet it
The 2 was about 5/2 I split my bets 60 /40
but the winner # 4 went to about 2/1

here are my readouts

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33991

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[For The Lead]

I haven’t posted anything here for a while, but Bill V. asked me to look at this race.
It’s a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race going 6 furlongs.

I will follow the same procedures as I do in every race I post.

The #8 horse was scratched.
There are 2 first time starters, #3 and #13. BOTH of them are eliminated from consideration.
There are 3 horses with a Morning Line of 20/1 or greater, the #5, #6 and #11. All three are dismissed from consideration.
The #4 horse hasn’t run in 147 days and will not be considered.

The remaining 6 horses have all had a race in the last 90 days. These will be the horses that will be considered for a line…IF they have a “+” or “(+)” line in the last 90 days.

#1 – NO LINE. last race was a turf route. Line 2 is just a bad line. Line 3 is a good line, but it is 108 days ago.
#2 – NO LINE. This horse has two races back after a layoff of 287 days. Neither line is a “+” or a “(+)” line.
#7 – LINE 1. This horse has just two races. After its’ first start it was off for 104 days. In its’ return race (25 days ago) it showed good early speed to the half mile point of the race before fading.
#9 – LINE 1. This is another horse with just two lifetime races. After its’ first start it was away from the races for 252 days. In its’ return race (28 days ago) it ran a pressing race and being 2nd at the second call just 2 lengths behind the leader before fading down the stretch, but still finishing 3rd.
#10 – NO LINE. This is another horse with just two lifetime races. Unfortunately, neither race is a “+” or a “(+)”.
#12 – LINE 1. I’m using a line for this horse simply because it has a “(+)” race just 22 days ago. I will leave it in just to see its’ effect on the other contenders. However, let me be clear, I WOULD NOT BET ON THIS HORSE. The horse is 0 for 26 lifetime and I can’t think of a much worse animal than a maiden that is 0 for “ a whole bunch of races”. They have learned to lose and that is what they keep on doing…losing.

Let's look at the "Original" screen.

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On this screen we can see that line 1 was used for each horse.
We can also see that all horses have had a race in the last 30 days.
We can see that all the horses got their line in a $20,000 claiming race.
We can also see the running styles of each horse.
We can see the horse's running style designation we have made for each horse (RS) along with the Quirin Speed Points.
Along with that, we can see the field sizes the horses ran against, the odds they went off at, the speed rating, track variant, race class and, of course, the BLBL.
There is a lot of comparative information on this page.

So as not to keep you in suspense, the #7 horse won this race wire to wire and paid $37.20.

Since the #12 is simply unplayable, a 2 horse bettor had no problem with this race as the #7 went off at 17/1 and the #9 went off at 7/1.

You can't manufacture these kind of races, they come along when they come along. You just have to look for them.

For whatever it's worth, here are the rest of the screen shots.

[For The Lead]

This thread started out with the premise that horses in maiden races that show good early form are threats to win their race. This follows that premise.

#1 – Line 2. Last line was a route race on the turf. Today is a sprint on the dirt, so was line 2. Line 2 is a “+” race where the horse ran a good 2nd.
#1A – SCR
#2 - FTS
#3 – Line 2. Last line was a “MS” race. Today is a “MC”, so was line 2. Line 2 was a “+” race where the horse ran 3rd.
#4 – Line 2. We’ll pull out all the stops here. The last line was run on a “wf” track. Line 2 was on a “ft” track. Line 2 is a “+” race where the horse ran 2nd.
#5 - NO LINE. The horse has two lifetime races, both routes with one being on the turf.
#6 – Line 3. The horse has three lifetime races. The last line was a route. Lines 2 and 3 were “MC 40K” races. Again, pulling out all the stops, we’ll just forgive line two for being at a higher class level and give the horse line 3 where it showed early speed.
#7 – FTS
#8 – FTS
#9 – Line 2. The last line was a route race.

I’m only going to put screen shots up of horses that have started. No FTS.

[For The Lead]

This is the last horse to get posted.
The next post will show screen shots and the chart of the race, along with commentary.

[For The Lead]

Notice how much faster the first call time is for the #9 horse.
For those looking at the first call time for the #3 horse as being just about as fast as the time for the #9 horse, keep in mind that the #3 was almost 10 lengths BEHIND that time, while the #9 horse was ON THE LEAD.

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I don't usually post the ENERGY screen, but I thought it would be a good idea here. Notice the the #9 horse is second on TOTAL ENERGY by just ".1" So in spite of the fact that the #9 horse backed up 12 lengths in the stretch, it is, for all intents and purposes, in a TIE for the #1 spot on TOTAL ENERGY.

35968

The TPR screen, again, shows the TOTAL ENERGY reads, but take a good look at the EPR. The #9 horse has a 4 point advantage over the next closest horse. So does this mean the #9 horse will come out of the gate, run as fast as it can and open a 10 length lead only to collapse in the stretch? NO! What it means is, the #9 horse can come out of the gate and WITHOUT running as fast as it can, establish a clear early lead to the second call, saving energy for later in the race.

35969

I think the segment screen speaks for itself. The #9 horse has the "0.0" all the way across, in spite of what you see in the TS+F3 panel.

35970

Here is the chart of the race.
Using the same straight forward approach to contender and line selection, horses like these will win for you. That is not to say they will win every race you play (neither will any other type of play), but at these prices they don't need to. AND, you don't need to search for ML 20/1 or higher horses in order to get these kind of prices. This horse had a ML of 10/1.
If you haven't read through this thread yet, perhaps now is a good time.

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[Bill Lyster]

Once again FTL, a great example. I like how you did not just pay attention to the last race. Good logic from which to learn.

Regards,

[Bill V.]

Line 1 is what messed me up in this race.

I made the mistake of thinking the route race was a negative
and although I had the 9 as a contender for "why not maidens"
I passed the race.:(

FTL can you comment on the last line and how it helps horse 9 ?

Thanks

35975

35974



Bill

[polambi]

Nice thread. Bill, I think that, the last line being a route, helped the horse build some stamina to go the distance without fading like she did in her previous races. You noticed that she used to fade in the stretch before that route race.
Have a nice day!

[For The Lead]

Once again FTL, a great example. I like how you did not just pay attention to the last race. Good logic from which to learn.

Regards,

Hi Bill,

I really didn't have any choice in this race. None of the horses had a last line that qualified. Not only that, but their last lines offered a valid excuse to go back a line. In each case, however, the horses all had a race in the last 90 days and the line used was also within the last 90 days. It was an odd kind of race in that respect, but that is why we have guidelines. Trust me, if all the lines used had been the last line, I would have been on the last line! :)

[For The Lead]

Line 1 is what messed me up in this race.

I made the mistake of thinking the route race was a negative
and although I had the 9 as a contender for "why not maidens"
I passed the race.:(

FTL can you comment on the last line and how it helps horse 9 ?

Thanks

35975

35974

Bill

Hi Bill,

"Polombi" hit the nail on the head.
There are many traininhg tactics that are used for various reasons, this is one of them.
When you have a horse that shows consistent early speed and fades through the stretch in sprint races, it "appears" the horse doesn't have enough stamina. So the concept is to run the horse in a route race in order to build the horse's stamina. It isn't necessary, in that route race, to send the horse out to the front as fast as it can go. In fact, that would defeat the purpose, since the idea is to allow the horse to run further, building up its' wind and stamina. Obviously, since this horse was coming off a sprint race where it ran the first quarter of a mile in 21.9 seconds while being on the lead, it was quite capable of being on the lead in the route race where the first quarter of a mile was in 24.0 seconds, but the intention was not to send the horse out for a fast early lead. Keep in mind that not every horse in every race is in that race to try and win it. The route race in the winners last race is considered a "conditioning race". The horse wasn't entered to win the race, but rather, for conditioning purposes.

[Bill Lyster]

FTL

Thanks for the explanation and clarification.

[Segwin]

When you have a horse that shows consistent early speed and fades through the stretch in sprint races, it "appears" the horse doesn't have enough stamina. So the concept is to run the horse in a route race in order to build the horse's stamina. It isn't necessary, in that route race, to send the horse out to the front as fast as it can go. In fact, that would defeat the purpose, since the idea is to allow the horse to run further, building up its' wind and stamina.

Couldn't this be accomplished in works too (unless it's better to keep the horse in the "action")?

[Segwin]

I hadn't notice this thread before so please excuse the late posts.

FTL, in this post (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=88377&postcount=7)you picked the 4 but in reading over your rules it would appear that 5 fit the rules better. I'm not understanding what led you to the 4 horse (perhaps with the exception of the 5 going up in class).

Thanks.

[For The Lead]

I hadn't notice this thread before so please excuse the late posts.

FTL, in this post (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=88377&postcount=7)you picked the 4 but in reading over your rules it would appear that 5 fit the rules better. I'm not understanding what led you to the 4 horse (perhaps with the exception of the 5 going up in class).

Thanks.

I'm not sure what rules you are reffering to and why those rules would lead to the #5 horse, nevertheless, let me move on.

Look at the "RS". The #5 horse is a "P3". The #4 horse is an "E8". The #4 horse is obviously considerably "earlier" than the #5 horse.
On the segments screen the #4 horse has no less than a 3.7 advantage over the next closest horse at the F1 call.
And as you pointed out, the #4 has a considerable edge in class, $25k for the #4 vs $16k for the #5.
As I said in the post above, if you look at these readouts and assume the early horse will fade, again, as it did in the line chosen, that would be the wrong assumption. All an early horse needs is an easy F1 lead, which will enable it to make the lead using less energy and conserving that saved energy for later in the race.

[For The Lead]

Couldn't this be accomplished in works too (unless it's better to keep the horse in the "action")?

I really don't want to get into a discussion about workouts, so I'll just say this. I have been at this game for 46+ years. I download from Trackmaster every day, albeit a different file than the one downloaded for RDSS. I get the last 12 workouts (I think) for each horse, if they have that many. Both in my experience before I started my own database and after I started my own database, I have never found anything that is consistently good about workouts. Workouts ARE NOT races. Races provide "live" competition, workouts do not, even when two horses work "in company".

Having said all that, I know someone will point to some Grade I horse that got ready for a big race on workouts alone. That's the reason they are Grade I horses.

I deal with low level races that are the bulk of the racing we are all confronted with day after day. In a lot of these cases the horses are lucky to make it to the starting gate. They race themselves into shape. Races are their workouts.

For those who do not agree with my assessment of workouts and their value, I wish you the best of luck.

[Segwin]

I'm not sure what rules you are reffering to and why those rules would lead to the #5 horse, nevertheless, let me move on.



In your database post you stated:

About 52% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the first call.
About 63% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the second call.

In your example the 4 horse was 1st at the first call but the 5 & 2 were tied at the 2nd call. Also the 5 was favored in the bl/bl.

Had I been hc this race I would have chosen 5 (and wrongly so). Just trying to understand what steered your decisions.

I'm truly not trying to be a PITA but trying to better my game. If I can't see it in my mind I'll keep going down the wrong road.

On a side note I had the most horrendous day at PRX. Hoo-fah.

[Segwin]

I deal with low level races that are the bulk of the racing we are all confronted with day after day. In a lot of these cases the horses are lucky to make it to the starting gate. They race themselves into shape. Races are their workouts.


Fair enough - that's why I ask questions.

[For The Lead]

In your database post you stated:

About 52% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the first call.
About 63% of maiden races were won by the horse that was running 1st or 2nd at the second call.

In your example the 4 horse was 1st at the first call but the 5 & 2 were tied at the 2nd call. Also the 5 was favored in the bl/bl.

Had I been hc this race I would have chosen 5 (and wrongly so). Just trying to understand what steered your decisions.

I'm truly not trying to be a PITA but trying to better my game. If I can't see it in my mind I'll keep going down the wrong road.

On a side note I had the most horrendous day at PRX. Hoo-fah.

The percentages you quoted are not "rules", they are "stats". When I post stats from my database I generally use 2 years worth of data. What I have found is, if I take any 2 years worth of stats, any other 2 years will be almost identical. Over 16 years, that's a lot of data.

Keep in mind, a large portion of that 63% at the second call are made up of the 52% from the first call.

The hardest thing to do in handicapping is understand early horses. Sure, when you see one that went wire to wire its' no problem, but when they fade down the stretch it becomes a MAJOR ISSUE. People see these horses as fading each and every time they run. Nothing could be further from reality.

Closers are easy to see. They start off somewhere behind the leaders and make up ground throughout the race coming ever closer to the finish line and a win or close 2nd. It's a very good "visual". You can "picture" (that's a key word) the horse coming from off the pace, running down the early leaders and winning the race. Easy, right?

But early horses that fade down the stretch, ahh, that is a different story. Nobody can "picture" (remember that key word?) that early horse getting the lead and drawing away down the stretch. It's just too much for them to "visualize" even though it happens many times a day at tracks all over the country.

So how can you tell which early horse can win and which one can't? Well, your readouts are a good place to start, but your readouts are only as good as your contender selection and line selection. Consider this. You have a race that is filled with "other than early" horses. In fact, none of them have ever been near the lead in a race. So you go about picking lines and etc. When you look at your readouts, one of those horses is going to show as the best F1 horse. Does that mean that horse is an early horse? NO.

Most people look at a race and if they see more than one horse that has ever been on or near the lead, even if it was only one time, they visualize a "speed duel". Is that correct? NO.

Then there are the races that have an abundance of early type horses. Does this guarantee a "speed duel". NO.
In many of these types of races there will be a dominant early horse that will come out and establish a clear lead, relagating the other early types to "chasers" that ultimately will not challange for the win.

Although I do not use them, the Quirin "speed points" in RDSS give you some insight. When entered in the same race, an E8 is certainly an early horse, where a P4 is not.

I can't emphasize enough the importantance of line selection if you want good readouts that actually tell you something.
With early horses, it doesn't matter how the horse finished down the stretch. It just doesn't. The important thing for early horses is the first fraction, just like it is the third fraction for closers.

[Segwin]

Many thanks for taking the time (effort and typing) to detail this. I just left another post about horses fading but you have answered it here.

[polambi]

FTL, good teaching. Every time I find two early horses in a race, I bet them both to win...especially if none of them is the favorite. So far, it's been working great for me. I guess people always anticipate a pace duel, like you said, but one of them usually came up as the dominant, and wins the race. Early horses are my favorites:)

[For The Lead]

FTL, good teaching. Every time I find two early horses in a race, I bet them both to win...especially if none of them is the favorite. So far, it's been working great for me. I guess people always anticipate a pace duel, like you said, but one of them usually came up as the dominant, and wins the race. Early horses are my favorites:)

Thank you.

And good job by you!! ;)

[Bill V.]

Here is a great example

I did not bet this race as I avoid maiden races with 2 first time starters.
The distance was also 7 furlongs and I avoid this distance at Parx about 90 % of the time, because of the mix of distances horses enter this distance from.

Anyway race 6 is a great example of how following this thread you could get this winner.
The winner is a E7 Although its 0-11 it has always run plus or Plus within a zero races

Here is the winner, If you follow the guidelines of this thread you will get this horse and only 1 other horse so that makes a 2 horse win bet easy

The winner paid $68.00

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The result chart

36331

[polambi]

Bill...that horse would have been in my pocket if you had sent me the alert before the race :)
From your result screen, I can see that this time the rider managed to rate the horse by going slower at the beginning. It worked for him.

[Appy]

The thing about that 2 horse is a lot of people would have dismissed him from consideration as a contender based on the high odds. I've seen that advised in threads on this site.

I've arrived at a resolution never to dismiss a horse solely for high odds, but I will pass betting a horse that has odds too low.

Another good thread.

[Bill V.]

Thanks, you bring up a very good point

However its the public that let this 8/1 morning line horse go off at 33/1

The crowd and the Parx morning line maker are just about always on the same page.

Maybe they all thought top rider Hector Caballero could not win 3 races in a row.. but he got the triple with the 2
Good Skill
Bill

[Capcondo]

Bill,

As you know, I am a matcher. You will rarely see a maiden or non-maiden that shows this ability to fight. This horse literally fought in his last 8 races at the first call. Several of those races, the horse was a multi-call fighter. Like Paul, I would have bet this horse. What's interesting is the horse ran from off the lead this time. It goes that way sometimes.

Hope all is well.

Tim

[Bill V.]

They come around ........

Parx race 5 The 6 is a E 8 There were 2 first time starters so I took it easy on the bet, The ML was 2.5/1 but they let the 6 go off at 8.30/1

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[Segwin]

Great stuff Bill!

[Capcondo]

Nice one Bill. Fast early fighters were one of the Hat's favorite plays.

Tim

[Bill V.]

This was as easy as it can be
No value, The 2 went off at 1/5 and went right to the lead and jogged
to a easy win


46296

46295

[buffaloxp]

[QUOTE=For The Lead;88799]Sorry you missed getting a bet down on this horse.
Since you are not familiar with putting screen shots in your posts, I thought I would put up mine. I don't know if these are the horses and lines you used, but, it's what I used. By the way, I was not watching AQU on Saturday, so I didn't have this winner either. It's a good example though.

[Bill Lyster]

The important thing to note in most or all of these examples is that the winner 1) needed the lead or very near the lead, 2) had the best EPR, but was probably not within 5 points of the best TPR. So keeping the best three EPR and the best three LPR and any horse in the top five keeps the contender selection process alive.

These NTL types do best with little competition on the lead. Just because a horse once went to the lead does not mean it will end up there today. You need the preponderance of action on the part of the need to lead types to project them against today's pace setter. More often than not the one time leaders will lag in the middle of the pack and let the early horse alone.

[Tim Y]

2nd call maidens: one of the MOST reliable angles out there. Best 2nd call., and it helps to have a good e/l number as well

[delayjf]

Another version of this early Maiden angle that I like is a EPR that is a new pace top for the horse, and is at or near the top EPR for the field. The #1 EPR shows he fits class wise with this field.

Aother benefit of such a effort is conditioning. I had a trainer once tell me that the best conditioning a horse could get was a good 1/2 mile effort in a race. I tend to agree with him.