A Change in The Wind

[trotman]

Could it be that time or luck has run it's course for Nick Zito. Just yesterday Robert LaPenta bought interest in a horse and the horse will be trained by Chad Brown. Since last year LaPenta has moved a number of horses out of Zito's barn to other trainers. Which brings me to the trainer angle which to me is anti-value. Hot trainers, big name trainers on the whole brings no value. Betting on trainers that were once hot and you think lightning will strike twice, again the losses will build.

[big49010]

Chad Brown seems to have the wind at his back, he is beginning to look like Pletcher, with an expanding operation of young talent.

[trotman]

Jeranimo will stay with California trainer Mike Pender until later in the spring when it then will move east and into Chad Brown's barn. Over the years LaPenta has put many horses in Zito's care but the balance sheet is covered in red. Any trainer will tell you that your only as good as your last win and for the past few years the wins have been less and less for Zito.

[alydar_ David]

"...Any trainer will tell you that your only as good as your last win and for the past few years the wins have been less and less for Zito."

Here's a window into Zito's overall performance for the last three years. Note, there are some profitable subsets which I've not included in this post.

Please note I use trainer information only as a tool -- just like T-Graph, The Sheets, CJ, Equibase, HDW, Timeform, etcetera.

If there were a gun to my head and I had to use only one thing it would be Total Pace Ratings.

With that out of the way here's the skivy on Nick:

33519
33520
33521
33522

[lsosa54]

Unless his last year was substantially worse that the average of the three, Zito is more than acceptable as a trainer for any of my plays. I might require higher odds on optional claimers, stakes, and msw and maybe play his dirt runners only on an on going basis.

Looking at an individual race, if I felt strongly about his horse and was getting value, I'd bet him under any condition or surface.

Who knows why owners decide to change trainers - could be many reasons. They pay the bills and are free to do what they want. An owner friend of mine switched trainers because his current one had been thrown out of the house by his girlfriend and was staying out all night partying, even though he was still getting to the barn at 5 am. Go figure.

David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious.

[big49010]

David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious.
That was my question too, very nice presentation, and not to prey into what areas you find him good at, but could you give examples of other stat that are in this package?

[alydar_ David]

"...David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious."

Lou and big49010, they're not from Formulator. I'd rather not mention where they're from as I don't want to promote another commercial enterprise, but there are lots of places to get trainer stats.

I just finished doing the first race at Gulfstream today. #2 Chile Dude has nice form and superior pace ratings. He's 3-1 on the morning line and that's an overlay. His Fair Odds should be around 9/5 in my opinion.

The fact that he's first-off-the-claim leads me to take a gander at the trainer stats.

How does the trainer perform in this situation? In the last 25 races, 4% wins first-off-the-claim. That's not particularly encouraging.

On the other hand looking at a longer time frame, the win is 11% first-off-the claim. Second race is 5% and that's it. 0% for third and fourth off-the-claim.
So, today is the best the trainer does in this situation.

Let's look at a few subsets.

How does the trainer do at this track, distance, class and surface? Answer: not great, but not horrible either.

33549

How does the trainer do with the owner? Answer: very well.

33550

How about with the jockey? Answer: certainly acceptable.

33551

The horse hasn't raced at GP so there is no data for that.

So, I've used the trainer information to confirm or cancel my selection.

In this case I'll be happy to bet the TPR horse if the odds are acceptable.

[lsosa54]

Fair enough David. I will research what's out there now if I feel the need.

Don't know if you remember back in the day in SoCal, Greg Lawlor in San Diego had pretty comprehensive stats. I think they were expensive and you used to get paper reports mailed to you. Before the days of the public internet.

Good luck with Chile Dude if you bet him. I'm not entirely confident that the race sets up for him and he'll be able to run down Sir Cotton and Apollo Sky, but that last fig Chile earned plus his fig three back are superior to anything in the field. Just have to hope the horse is happy with the carrots and hay at his new barn

[Dorianmode]

Does anyone have any generally available, free or otherwise, or even general stats, or resources, for what trainers, where, have success at moving high class routers to sprint races, and vice versa, or even general stats on what, statistically, generally happens, in these situations.
Thanks

[trotman]

To Dorianmode and others IMO it's the horse that runs the race. Trainer stats, jockey stats, trainer jockey stats are just identical to the PP's, they are the past. These items IMO are deciding factors to which horse you put your money on. I pay no attention to them, only to the horse. Horse racing is starting to look like a hockey or NFL fantasy pool with all these secondary stats. What irks me is so many people have a position on who is right and who is wrong yet the majority follow the blind sheep. For those you look up to as handicappers or who you followed you need to go back and re-read it all because IMO your way off base.

[big49010]

To Dorianmode and others IMO it's the horse that runs the race. Trainer stats, jockey stats, trainer jockey stats are just identical to the PP's, they are the past. These items IMO are deciding factors to which horse you put your money on. I pay no attention to them, only to the horse. Horse racing is starting to look like a hockey or NFL fantasy pool with all these secondary stats. What irks me is so many people have a position on who is right and who is wrong yet the majority follow the blind sheep. For those you look up to as handicappers or who you followed you need to go back and re-read it all because IMO your way off base.

If what you say is true, why hasn't Jack VanBerg and Wayne Lukas the two trainers that taught many of the best trainers out there today, been successful with Multi-Million dollar stock in the last 10 year? Based on what you are saying, add Nick to this group. Training has changed, and these guys haven't changed with the times, so if you treat them like the power houses they used to be, you heading for disaster.

On the flip side, if you get on the bandwagon with a Rudy Rodriguez or Chad Brown before they get in the mainstream, you can find overlays on horses that move up in figures outside of the public eye.

[trotman]

Big49010 I agree with you hitting on a trainer before the rest of the crowd that yes there is money to be made for a period. Unlike using the stats as most would incorporate into their handicapping 3 trainers come to mind that I noticed years ago and because they start so few each year it was easy to research and find a solid pattern for each one and it has been a huge bonus for me. I just put these 3 trainers on a watch list and when they are entered I look at the PP's, each of their patterns are etched in my mind. These 3 trainers will win just like the sun coming up on a summer morning when the pattern is present.

[exactor]

I tend to use this for elimination. If there are low stats maybe they are not always incompetent just not trying to win all-out in these situations.

[atkinsrr]

Trotman..couldn't have said it better myself.."The Horse Runs the Race".. see Follow Up #54 pages 10-13. Doc Sartins article on trainers and jockeys. Doc always said that we should have a win % minimum of 62% once we learned how to do things according to what we have learned thru the Follow ups and thru practice..practice..practice. I have yet to see a trainer, jockey, or any other stat long term that hit 62%. The pacelines that I get from RDSS are run by the horse...please everyone read and re-read these follow up journals...Doc put a lot of work into these manuals to help us win...don't let them gather dust on the bookshelf...These journals are worth more than their weight in gold.....trust me...I have them all on my bookshelf right by my desk and mine do not collect dust........

[shoeless]

On the flipside of that is there anybody on board that has a 62% win
rate, I seriously doubt it.

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff

Well you right about me
I have been about a 40 - 45 percent winner each 20 race cycle since
1997 thats 8 or 9 wins per 20 races
The fact that from 1997 till 2010 I bet only horses over 5/2 and hid anything lower puts me well under the good old Sartin days when any winner at any
price pumped up a 66% win rate.

Now that I'm betting much fewer races my profits are better
but I also am not falling into $60 horses as much becaus I usually don't have
$60 horses as true contenders

Bill

[atkinsrr]

no but I'm close....I'm averaging around 55% bouncing around 53 to 58 betting 2 horses to win...that's also counting pic 3's & 4's where I have more than 2 horses in most races,
ave mutual is hanging around $12.00 ....I WILL GET THERE!!!!!!!!!

[atkinsrr]

also I forgot to mention...for years have been a win better only...this month I have started tracking exactas...Note that in the past Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw and I have been the 2 worst exacta bettors in the group...I think he mentioned once that he couldn't hit an exacta if there was only 2 horses in the race...but anyway...for January I bet 8 exactas and hit 5....$2 bets only.. some keys some 3H boxes and showed a small profit of $48.00...will keep working on this until I've proven to myself that I can make a profit long term

[shoeless]

Bill and Atkinssr those are very good win % and I know you put in
a lot of hard work to achieve that.

[big49010]

I have always been a single horse win bettor. My win percentage for my last 500 bets is 24.5% with an average odds of 4.80. I have had two 16 race loosing streaks, along with two 11 race loosing streaks, which can be a little tough on the head bone. I am curious about the 20 race cycle, what is the idea behind that, or point me to the info for more research. I am not sure I would switch to two horse betting, but would like to read a little more about it also.