View Full Version : Opening day Aqueduct main track
RichieP
03-30-2006, 09:40 AM
Opened yesterday and the track definitely favored LATE horses at the 8f one turn distance. Some real nice prices yesterday.
don't know what today will bring but just a heads up on opening of main track.
NYRA has the BEST track maintenance crew in racing in my opinion. True professionals who know what the heck they are doing.
safe day
Richie
tompkins
03-30-2006, 01:22 PM
only TWO tracks, in all the years I have been keeping track of them, show such a FRONT END bias day to day and ONE of them is Aqueuduct. Yesterday was no exception: if a horse is not in the top 5 at the second call, it is too much to make up.
the FIRST was not betable but the same bias is there again
1st race - Aqueduct - March 30, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Coded Princess 2.60 2.10 2.10
6 Chunk of Love 3.20 2.30
7 Tax the Queen 2.60
$2 Exacta 5-6 5.30
tompkins
03-30-2006, 01:35 PM
the opening maiden 8 furlong test had the winner two lines better than the field and then the 8th had earliers right ther :No higher than 5th EPR
Off at: 4:23 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
Value of Race: $48,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:36.56
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Lila Paige Eibar Coa 7.70 3.90 2.70
1 Samsincharge Jose A. Santos 4.30 3.00
5 Merrill Gold Michael J. Luzzi 3.90
RichieP
03-30-2006, 03:42 PM
here are screen shots for the winning horses in races 1-3-5 today.
take a look on the bottom over to the right under "ESP" for each winners LAST LINE which are ALL routes notice the ESP designation
LAT
now go back and in the opening post, the opening sentence what is the one word I have capitalized?
LATE
ok
Richie
RichieP
03-30-2006, 03:49 PM
here is a model of yesterdays 2 non maiden races showing the e/l graph graphed. also over to the right u see the ESP designations
both winners : LATE
also check the winning e/l numbers on the graph and then COMPARE to today's last line numbers on the 3 winners. Pretty cool ha ;)
might have explained it better in opening post. my bad.
Richie
tompkins
03-30-2006, 04:07 PM
style is NOT based upon ONE line
tompkins
03-30-2006, 04:12 PM
style is NOT based upon ONE line
RichieP
03-30-2006, 04:22 PM
style is NOT based upon ONE line
maybe there is more than YOUR way to skin a cat for profits :)
Richie
tompkins
03-30-2006, 04:31 PM
of course there is
RichieP
03-30-2006, 04:33 PM
maybe there is more than YOUR way to skin a cat for profits :)
Richie
Tim
in NO way was that meant as a shot at you.
I work races a certain way as do you.
it's all good.
Rich
tompkins
03-30-2006, 04:39 PM
I agree wholeheartedly. I look at the PERFORMER not a PERFORMANCE because STYLES are relative not absolute
tompkins
03-30-2006, 04:43 PM
in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.
RichieP
03-30-2006, 04:56 PM
in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.
I appreciate that Tim..
2 of the 3 biggest late sticks run 1-2 for the exacta.
9 wins
4 runs second
knock em dead manana!
Richie
tompkins
03-30-2006, 05:04 PM
it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time
admin
03-30-2006, 05:18 PM
Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line
RichieP
03-30-2006, 05:24 PM
it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time
lol. The test of time. How long is "the test of time"??
BTW I bet and lost real money on those 2 counterenergy races I posted up man. Was no day in the park for me today at the Big A and I HAD a clue what was gonna win.
thats ok. A nice plate of cavatelli, some collards, a little meat sauce and a salad and I am ready to work the night cards. Tally ho!
tough game :eek:
Richie
shoeless
03-30-2006, 05:27 PM
I dont see how you can put line 2 in there for that horse,it was in the mud and lost the race by 28 lenghts.To me it looks like you are just causing a problem by putting in horses who make a lot of noise in your readouts.Jeff
RichieP
03-30-2006, 05:27 PM
Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line
whats wrong with the last line Tim?
WTF am I missing.
SEE thats why u have to do stuff on your OWN. That includes ME posting my model shots AND opinions of what won yesterday and today at the 8f distance. MY BAD.
NO MAS
luv
Richie
admin
03-30-2006, 05:34 PM
Rich
Please
You know why I posted the screenshot
Its like 5.30 on the east coast
wait for our frends all over see the Pacelines
I bet you will feel better
tompkins
03-30-2006, 05:35 PM
two words: SAMPLE ERROR.
Imagine that I am scouting a basketball player, and only watch ONE game where, unbeknownst to me, he suffers an ankle sprain the day before. I get a skewed undertstanding of the PLAYER based upon a single PERFORMANCE.
Now if I watched that same player over 3 to 4 contests, sample error would have worked it's way out of the evaluation and I would be seeing the PPERFORMER not the PERFORMANCE.
To understand a horse's abilities today, you should evalute it based upon MULTIPLE examples or, like the basketball player, you are prone to sample error. Also the FORM CYCLE wil tell you which way, if it any, this particular horse is going.
Unless the animal sets every fraction, you need to know how it handled pace pressure. Look at MOST EVERY horse: their style, e/l ranking, total energy wax and wane. To establish a wagering decision on a single line is not logical.
tompkins
03-30-2006, 05:49 PM
correction, I did delete the wrong line for the screen shot and like most maidens it had the best e/ep line in it's last
admin
03-30-2006, 05:50 PM
Shall I delete the shot ?
tompkins
03-30-2006, 05:56 PM
then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from
RichieP
03-30-2006, 06:20 PM
then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from
There you go! Pretty as a postcard now.
Rich
admin
03-30-2006, 06:26 PM
then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from
What ?
tompkins
03-30-2006, 07:10 PM
I'm done here
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.