Opening day Aqueduct main track

[RichieP]

Opened yesterday and the track definitely favored LATE horses at the 8f one turn distance. Some real nice prices yesterday.

don't know what today will bring but just a heads up on opening of main track.

NYRA has the BEST track maintenance crew in racing in my opinion. True professionals who know what the heck they are doing.

safe day
Richie

[tompkins]

only TWO tracks, in all the years I have been keeping track of them, show such a FRONT END bias day to day and ONE of them is Aqueuduct. Yesterday was no exception: if a horse is not in the top 5 at the second call, it is too much to make up.

the FIRST was not betable but the same bias is there again

1st race - Aqueduct - March 30, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Coded Princess 2.60 2.10 2.10
6 Chunk of Love 3.20 2.30
7 Tax the Queen 2.60

$2 Exacta 5-6 5.30

[tompkins]

the opening maiden 8 furlong test had the winner two lines better than the field and then the 8th had earliers right ther :No higher than 5th EPR

Off at: 4:23 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming
Age Restriction: Four Year Old and Upward
Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
Value of Race: $48,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:36.56
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Lila Paige Eibar Coa 7.70 3.90 2.70
1 Samsincharge Jose A. Santos 4.30 3.00
5 Merrill Gold Michael J. Luzzi 3.90

[RichieP]

here are screen shots for the winning horses in races 1-3-5 today.

take a look on the bottom over to the right under "ESP" for each winners LAST LINE which are ALL routes notice the ESP designation

LAT

now go back and in the opening post, the opening sentence what is the one word I have capitalized?
LATE

ok

Richie

[RichieP]

here is a model of yesterdays 2 non maiden races showing the e/l graph graphed. also over to the right u see the ESP designations

both winners : LATE

also check the winning e/l numbers on the graph and then COMPARE to today's last line numbers on the 3 winners. Pretty cool ha ;)

might have explained it better in opening post. my bad.

Richie

[tompkins]

style is NOT based upon ONE line

[tompkins]

style is NOT based upon ONE line

[RichieP]

style is NOT based upon ONE line


maybe there is more than YOUR way to skin a cat for profits :)

Richie

[tompkins]

of course there is

[RichieP]

maybe there is more than YOUR way to skin a cat for profits :)

Richie

Tim
in NO way was that meant as a shot at you.

I work races a certain way as do you.

it's all good.

Rich

[tompkins]

I agree wholeheartedly. I look at the PERFORMER not a PERFORMANCE because STYLES are relative not absolute

[tompkins]

in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.

[RichieP]

in the last race today I will make my wagering decsions on this screen.

I appreciate that Tim..

2 of the 3 biggest late sticks run 1-2 for the exacta.

9 wins
4 runs second

knock em dead manana!

Richie

[tompkins]

it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time

[admin]

Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line

[RichieP]

it is ALL relative every race, every day. To attribute an outcome to a single line is FRAUGHT with error and it won't stand the test of time

lol. The test of time. How long is "the test of time"??

BTW I bet and lost real money on those 2 counterenergy races I posted up man. Was no day in the park for me today at the Big A and I HAD a clue what was gonna win.

thats ok. A nice plate of cavatelli, some collards, a little meat sauce and a salad and I am ready to work the night cards. Tally ho!

tough game :eek:

Richie

[shoeless]

I dont see how you can put line 2 in there for that horse,it was in the mud and lost the race by 28 lenghts.To me it looks like you are just causing a problem by putting in horses who make a lot of noise in your readouts.Jeff

[RichieP]

Winner Race 9 with the 2nd and 3rd line


whats wrong with the last line Tim?

WTF am I missing.

SEE thats why u have to do stuff on your OWN. That includes ME posting my model shots AND opinions of what won yesterday and today at the 8f distance. MY BAD.

NO MAS

luv
Richie

[admin]

Rich
Please
You know why I posted the screenshot
Its like 5.30 on the east coast
wait for our frends all over see the Pacelines
I bet you will feel better

[tompkins]

two words: SAMPLE ERROR.

Imagine that I am scouting a basketball player, and only watch ONE game where, unbeknownst to me, he suffers an ankle sprain the day before. I get a skewed undertstanding of the PLAYER based upon a single PERFORMANCE.

Now if I watched that same player over 3 to 4 contests, sample error would have worked it's way out of the evaluation and I would be seeing the PPERFORMER not the PERFORMANCE.

To understand a horse's abilities today, you should evalute it based upon MULTIPLE examples or, like the basketball player, you are prone to sample error. Also the FORM CYCLE wil tell you which way, if it any, this particular horse is going.

Unless the animal sets every fraction, you need to know how it handled pace pressure. Look at MOST EVERY horse: their style, e/l ranking, total energy wax and wane. To establish a wagering decision on a single line is not logical.

[tompkins]

correction, I did delete the wrong line for the screen shot and like most maidens it had the best e/ep line in it's last

[admin]

Shall I delete the shot ?

[tompkins]

then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from

[RichieP]

then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from

There you go! Pretty as a postcard now.

Rich

[admin]

then adding an EARLY FILTER, still don't know why this works (you hide the slower of the lines at the second call) it comes out like this. this is where that idea of the top 5 EPR comes from



What ?

[tompkins]

I'm done here