TE & %M as a form indicator

[noddub62]

I still am intrigued with using the various Spec outputs to determine form, particularly TE & %M. For increasing TE & %M I note in my comment line
(F9) a + for increasing TE and a + for decreasing %M, - signs for the opposites, 0 for no change, and ? for unknown. I also note if the horse is a layoff coming back or if this will be the 2nd or 3rd after a layoff. Also note last time winners and by how much (the old Scott - How will your Horse Run carry over mind set).

At this point I won't mix dirt and turf but I do mix route to sprint and vice versa. Probably should not but for right now I'm gathering data to analyze later. I will run thu 3 or 4 cards for a Thursday nite at LS simucast and try to find races where I have two pluses (++) in my top 4 to 5 contenders. The tracks are Ev, Ct, Pen, TP or Hou right now. Currently my wager will be on two pluses or a 2nd or 3rd back with ??. (The ?? usually indicates that it is a betable horse - just cannot do a + or - for whatever reason.)

The 2 ++ should put you on a live horse but not always. The 2 -- or a -+, +- will usuall indicate a false favorite or false mid-tier, but not always. I have managed too eliminate the top 2 or 3 tiers more than once and get a juicy payout. Last week I got the W & P and exacta on tier 4 and 5 and both were double digit odds. I have had several "ahead of the game nites" but I looked like John the Baptist last nite, so you never know and that's why its called gambling, to quote my wife. (She did get a trinket from the exacta for putting up with me).

I will be looking at refining these form indicators, I hope, and will also share what comes out of the hopper.

QUESTION in all of this! Anybody got any insight that they want to share as I just as soon not reinvent the wheel?

Thanks,

Bud

PS Lone Star starts live in 13 days and I can't wait to see the pretty Texas girls in those short cut-off Levi's, smell the horses, cash some tickets and drink some cold, cold beer.

Remember the Alamo!

[RichieP]

I still am intrigued with using the various Spec outputs to determine form, particularly TE & %M. For increasing TE & %M I note in my comment line
(F9) a + for increasing TE and a + for decreasing %M, - signs for the opposites, 0 for no change, and ? for unknown. I also note if the horse is a layoff coming back or if this will be the 2nd or 3rd after a layoff. Also note last time winners and by how much (the old Scott - How will your Horse Run carry over mind set).

At this point I won't mix dirt and turf but I do mix route to sprint and vice versa. Probably should not but for right now I'm gathering data to analyze later. I will run thu 3 or 4 cards for a Thursday nite at LS simucast and try to find races where I have two pluses (++) in my top 4 to 5 contenders. The tracks are Ev, Ct, Pen, TP or Hou right now. Currently my wager will be on two pluses or a 2nd or 3rd back with ??. (The ?? usually indicates that it is a betable horse - just cannot do a + or - for whatever reason.)

The 2 ++ should put you on a live horse but not always. The 2 -- or a -+, +- will usuall indicate a false favorite or false mid-tier, but not always. I have managed too eliminate the top 2 or 3 tiers more than once and get a juicy payout. Last week I got the W & P and exacta on tier 4 and 5 and both were double digit odds. I have had several "ahead of the game nites" but I looked like John the Baptist last nite, so you never know and that's why its called gambling, to quote my wife. (She did get a trinket from the exacta for putting up with me).

I will be looking at refining these form indicators, I hope, and will also share what comes out of the hopper.

QUESTION in all of this! Anybody got any insight that they want to share as I just as soon not reinvent the wheel?

Thanks,

Bud

PS Lone Star starts live in 13 days and I can't wait to see the pretty Texas girls in those short cut-off Levi's, smell the horses, cash some tickets and drink some cold, cold beer.

Remember the Alamo!

Very creative Bud! I am gonna clock it at 2 tracks I follow pretty closely ok?

Sounds interesting. You will lose all the horses that are coming off bad last races ( lots of those are the price guys) BUT you will also GAIN some solid BOMBS too!

There is ALWAYS a give and take in whatever we do in racing. least thats my opinion

stay cool Bud and thanx again
Richie

[admin]

I really Loved that Book
how will your horse run today

I tried your method here
I happen to have these Vector Shots from a race I did at
Philly over in the Club Pace and Cap area

I added the + - or 0's in the Comment area in blue
Here is horse 1

[admin]

Horse 2

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Horse 3

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Horse 4

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Horse 5

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Horse 6

[admin]

horse 7

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=noddub62](F9) a + for increasing TE and a + for decreasing %M, - signs for the opposites, 0 for no change, and ? for unknown. I also note if the horse is a layoff coming back or if this will be the 2nd or 3rd after a layoff. Also note last time winners and by how much (the old Scott - How will your Horse Run carry over mind set).

Thanks,

Bud



Bud,
Question please.

How many races are you using to determine ++ or -- ?? last 2? last 3?

Thanx
Richie

[noddub62]

Richie,

Right now I'm just using the last 2 but ocassionally will look at last and 3rd back if there is something like a 4.5f or 5f race in between. I perfer the last 2 but --- duh --- don't know why!

[RichieP]

Richie,

Right now I'm just using the last 2 but ocassionally will look at last and 3rd back if there is something like a 4.5f or 5f race in between. I perfer the last 2 but --- duh --- don't know why!

ok ok Instinct right? Beautiful thing Budman:)

I will let u know what I see

Thank you
Richie

[tompkins]

after using this angle hundreds and hundreds of times, you really need to see the shift over three races to be significant.

Generally there are three reasons this happens. FIRST, a youngster is going into LONGER races and cannot cope. "Once I held that this was going off form, but maybe it is also a sign of developing three year olds NOT being able to take the next step up distance. Think of it: an animal is starting to go beyond his best distance capacity (can't apportion energy that is NOT THERE), runs for awhile and then dramatically slows down becoming EARLIER as the
distance capabilities are OVERWHELMED. An animal that can go these LONGER distances is going to tell you by it's performance numbers that it can make that next step."

SECOND it is meeting a PROGRESSIVELY faster pace and just cannot keep up. MOST of the false positives are in this group.

Thirdly, the horse is going off form and it is telling you that it cannot extend itself into the race and gives up earlier and earlier.

[admin]

Here is the winner of the demo paceline screenshots
Looks like a -+ and 2nd of layoff

GS
Bill

[noddub62]

In comparing the TE and %M for the the last 2 or 3 races, are you comparing apples to apples when the last 2 or 3 are not of the same distance?

Bud

[tompkins]

the races need to be CLOSE to the same distance AND have to be all recent or otherwise the entire idea of going off form is negated since the whole idea is a steady regression.

[noddub62]

;) Agreed as to recent.

Bud