Met Mile & HANDICAP races

[For The Lead]

If you think it is hard for a 3 year old to win the 3 year old Triple Crown, (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont), there is another Tripe Crown that is even harder, the Handicap Triple Crown. Only four horses have accomplished this feat, Whisk Broom (1913), Tom Fool (1953), Kelso (1961) and Fit To Fight (1984). All three races are run in New York. The races are the Metropolitan Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Although the Metropolitan Handicap is commonly known as “The Met Mile”, take notice that all three races are “HANDICAP” races. What does this mean?

Before I go on, I understand that “weight” plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level.

Let’s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of “weight for age”, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary’s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean?
The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races.

Just so you don’t have to go look it up, there were two horses in today’s Metropolitan Handicap that were tie for the high weight. They ran first and third. Here are the entries.

34340


Now I mentioned this applies to handicap races at any level. As it so happens, there were two nondescript handicap races at PARX today. Here are the entries for those races. The winner is circled in red.

34341
34342

[Lt1]

Thanks for the info FTL.

[For The Lead]

There was another “HANDICAP” race at PARX today. The high weight won the race. Here are the entries for the race, including the weight assignment for each horse. The entries for any race can be found at Equibase.

34344

[Bill V.]

Hello FTL

Maybe the person making the weights needs to make an adjustment
Yes the top weight horse is winning but based on the odds they won at
was it really a race ?
Unlike the Met Handicap which had a $11 winner and a photo finish
These 3 Parx races saw a $2.20 and yesterday was a $5.00 winner and 1 winner at $3 something

Bill
34345

34346

34347

[For The Lead]

Whenever you see a GRADED race, it might be a "HANDICAP" race and it might not be a handicap race. Reading the conditions will provide the answer.

A race does NOT have to be a GRADED race in order to be a handicap race. The previous examples from PARX are evidence that low level races can also be handicap races.

An important point here is not to confuse a "Starter Allowance" with a "Starter HANDICAP". They are two different races.
A Starter Allowance is weight for age with allowances for performance.
A Starter Handicap has no allowances and the weight is assigned by the racing secretary. Below are examples of each condition. The conditions start out looking very similar, but the similarity ends quickly.

Let's look at a Starter Allowance race first.
34350
Now let's look at a Starter Handicap race.
34351
Read each condition carefully.

[For The Lead]

Lower level HANDICAP races, commonly known as "Starter Handicap" races, are generally run as a series of races.
Today's 7th race at PARX was the first in a starter handicap series.

Think of a handicap race as a party. The racing secretary sends out invitations to the party and it is up to the recipient to accept or decline the invitation.

Below is a list of the horses that were invited to today's party.
34352

34353

The above is from the "condition book". Notice that is says the race "is to be run" (indicating at some future date) on May 28, 2013.

There were 39 horses invited. 12 of those 39 actually attended. Take note that the list is in "weight" order, with the high weight at the top and the low weight at the bottom. Also notice that the racing secretary "prefers" the high weighted horses attend. This is the way it works at ALL LEVELS.

As you can see, this is the first leg in the series, so there will be more to come. The dates and all other information is contained in the condition book and the horses connections are aware of when ALL legs in the series will be run.

[Bill V.]

hello FTL

In the SA series at Parx they also have the AND non winners life
condition There are N 2-L, N3-L and another for non winners of a maiden claiming starter or PA bred OR non winners of 4-L
In the race you use as an example Its a SA 16 and NW 2-L

Bill

[For The Lead]

hello FTL

In the SA series at Parx they also have the AND non winners life
condition There are N 2-L, N3-L and another for non winners of a maiden claiming starter or PA bred OR non winners of 4-L
In the race you use as an example Its a SA 16 and NW 2-L

Bill

Hi Bill,

The "SA" (Starter Allowance) IS NOT a series.

It is the "SH" (Starter Handicap) that IS a series.

I apologize if I was not clear on this.

[For The Lead]

Hello FTL

Maybe the person making the weights needs to make an adjustment
Yes the top weight horse is winning but based on the odds they won at
was it really a race ?
Unlike the Met Handicap which had a $11 winner and a photo finish
These 3 Parx races saw a $2.20 and yesterday was a $5.00 winner and 1 winner at $3 something

Bill
34345

34346

34347

Hi Bill,

I don't know what adjustment could be made. The idea is to make the best horse (in the racing secretary's opinion) carry the most weight and then scale the weights down from there.

If you read my post (below) you will see that the racing secretary "hopes" and "encourages" the high weighted horses to enter, which will make for a more competitive race and also better odds for the betting public. Like any other type of race, this doesn't always happen.

Keep in mind that the top weighted horse is not necessarily the winner of the race. As I said from the outset, the winner generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. And to further reinforce my earlier comments, nothing in racing is 100%. I thought I would provide this information to help with a starting point for contenders in these types of races. Perhaps this will also help with whether or not to even get involved in the race.

As you pointed out, the Starter Handicap races at PARX the last two days have been won by favorites. Armed with the information I have provided here, perhaps you would choose not to get involved. Certainly it is not worthwhile betting on these short priced favorites and it may be in ones best interest to pass the race.

There will be handicap races with good prices. Like any other type of race, you just have to wait for them.

[Lord John]

For The Lead, this is very good info. Actually reading the 'Racing Conditions' and actually understanding the conditions can be the difference between cashing a ticket and tearing one up. Lets face it, some of the conditions get to be very confusing when there can be up to three different conditions in one race and different weight allowances for non winners of such by this date and so many pounds allowed by non winners of two by this date. Any other tidbits into comprehending 'racing conditions' and what to look for would be appreciated.

[For The Lead]

Read through the teaching thread. There are a few in here that talk about various conditions.

[Bill V.]

Hello FTL

No worries, It was me who misspoke, I am aware that
the starter allowance races are not a series
I should have said at Parx In the starter allowance condition,
they also have sub conditions for lifetime wins
There is also a condition for the starter allowance races
for a time period, These are generally in the $8000 and $10000
range.

Here are the conditions for the 7th race at Parx on May 21
Its a Starter Alw 8000 which means any horse can get in
to the race as long as it has run in an $8000 or less claiming race
in 2012 -13


34354



What I find interesting is there are no $8000 claimers at Parx
They 6 sub conditions for the CL 7500 level
and the have $10000 claimers I wonder why then they set the
price at $8000?

Also I was being facetious about the Handicap races
Part of the reason for the low odds in the 3 handicap races
the last 3 days was these were the first 3 races of the Parx
turf season and early in the turf season there are many horses off long layoffs or have no turf form The 3 winning horses had recent turf lines.
Actually the May 26 race was taken off the turf

Bill

[For The Lead]

I don't think Penn National is a track that most people follow, but this past Saturday night it presented the best card they have ever put on in the history of the track. That is NOT my opinion. It is a fact as presented by the track itself. They presented 5 STAKES races and 2 HANDICAP races as part of their 9 race program. One stakes race carried a purse of $500,000, The LARGEST purse ever presented in the history of the track, but it is the 2 HANDICAP races I want to focus on.

I started this thread with some, what I hope to b helpful, information with regard to handicap races. In light of that, I feel compelled to expand on that information as all handicap races are not straight forward. In other words, not every handicap race has three horses that are "different" weights and are the top three weights in the race, such as, 123, 121, 119. Sometimes there are multiple horses carrying the same high weight or second high weight or even 3rd high weight. The second race at Penn National Saturday night was one such race.

Below you will see that chart of this race. If you look at the weights, the top three high weights encompass the ENTIRE FIELD. 5 horses came in carrying 122lbs. 4 horses came in carrying 119lbs. And the remaining horse came in carrying 118lbs. This is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weighted horses as your primary, or only, contenders.

34392

The 3rd race at Penn National Saturday night was the other handicap race on the card. Again, this is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weight horses as your primary, or only, contenders. Why? 2 horses came in carrying 117lbs. 3 horses came in carrying 116lbs. 2 horses came in carrying 115lbs. That covers the top 3 high weights, but it also covers every horse in the race except for 1. Here's the chart of that race.

34393

The point I am making here is, don't take the information I set forth at the outset of this thread and think that it applies to all handicap races regardless of how many horses are included in that top 3 weights like the ones I have discussed here. It doesn't!

I would constrict the number of horses to the basic "3" high weights or perhaps "4".

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL

I don't know if you remember the problem race from 4/16

The winner of that race was Easter Gift
here is the link
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=89792&postcount=3

I did not down load Penn Saturday night. I had no idea of the great card
But I knew something was up because they never show Penn at Surfside
at Del Mar, but there it was up on the main giant screens. When I saw
Easter Gift in the warm ups and post parade
I ran and put $5 buck on it to win, Just for the fact it beat Ruler on Ice and
I had it to win that day at Parx.
Great to see it win again on the big stage

Bill

[vderdak]

FTL,

Took your advice and played the two highest weights in the Brooklyn Handicapyesterday and sure enough the high weight won at 7-1.

Thanks again for for pointing out another way to look at these races.

[vderdak]

FTL

Another score on the high weighted horse for the Solana Beach Handicap this evening at Del Mar Race #8 Halo Dolly #2 at 2.5-1. decent odds with 5 horses. This insight you gave us just pays over and over and over.

[For The Lead]

I am very happy to hear that! :)

There was also a "Starter Handicap" at Monmouth today. The co-highweight won and paid $9.40.

[Bill V.]

I worked this race when I saw FTL'S post

I made this video for FTL, I wanted to show him and ask his advice on
my work. FTL wrote back and told me to look closer at the conditions of the race.
"This is a "series" of races that has a $10,000 BONUS. In order for the owner/trainer to be eligible for that bonus,
the horse has to start in two out of the three races in the series"

Thanks FTL I missed that part.

Here Is my video.

35383

I'm talking very slow and not loud.
I guess This is my voice after a full day of races LOL
Bill

[Segwin]

I don't think Penn National is a track that most people follow, but this past Saturday night it presented the best card they have ever put on in the history of the track. That is NOT my opinion. It is a fact as presented by the track itself. They presented 5 STAKES races and 2 HANDICAP races as part of their 9 race program. One stakes race carried a purse of $500,000, The LARGEST purse ever presented in the history of the track, but it is the 2 HANDICAP races I want to focus on.

I started this thread with some, what I hope to b helpful, information with regard to handicap races. In light of that, I feel compelled to expand on that information as all handicap races are not straight forward. In other words, not every handicap race has three horses that are "different" weights and are the top three weights in the race, such as, 123, 121, 119. Sometimes there are multiple horses carrying the same high weight or second high weight or even 3rd high weight. The second race at Penn National Saturday night was one such race.

Below you will see that chart of this race. If you look at the weights, the top three high weights encompass the ENTIRE FIELD. 5 horses came in carrying 122lbs. 4 horses came in carrying 119lbs. And the remaining horse came in carrying 118lbs. This is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weighted horses as your primary, or only, contenders.

34392

The 3rd race at Penn National Saturday night was the other handicap race on the card. Again, this is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weight horses as your primary, or only, contenders. Why? 2 horses came in carrying 117lbs. 3 horses came in carrying 116lbs. 2 horses came in carrying 115lbs. That covers the top 3 high weights, but it also covers every horse in the race except for 1. Here's the chart of that race.



Thanks for this thread FTL.

I'm not understanding what makes a card playable or not. Why wouldn't the two horses carrying 117 be the pics based on the discussion?

If you get the chance to respond I'd appreciate it.

[Appy]

Another very good and beneficial thread!

FTL said, "The idea is to make the best horse (in the racing secretary's opinion) carry the most weight and then scale the weights down from there."

True. In theory the weight difference is supposed to create a field wherein each entry has equal chance of winning. But your stats show it doesn't work that way as the more heavily weighted horses win anyway.
Very revealing and potentially profitable.

[For The Lead]

Thanks for this thread FTL.

I'm not understanding what makes a card playable or not. Why wouldn't the two horses carrying 117 be the pics based on the discussion?

If you get the chance to respond I'd appreciate it.

Naturally anyone can take this basic information and run with it anyway they see fit, but I have outlined the best way to approach these races.
The idea is not to play the highweight, but to use the top 3 (or 4) highweights and handicap from there.The highweighted horse will win their fair share of these races, but the 2nd and 3rd highweights are also viable contenders.

In the race being discussed, if you took all the horses that made up the top three highweights, you would have too many contenders, which defeats the purpose. You want to narrow the field to as few horses as possible.

[Segwin]

Tnxs FTL - takes a while for it to sink in my thick skull.