The "Mysterious" case of Guyana Princess

[Jeebs]

To quote a friend on another message board after this race:

Those kind of horses are the type to avoid. The ones who lose contact with the field then suck up. No kind of pace gets them home. Guyana made it into the Super as is her calling.


Based on my match-up, I felt that Guyana Princess was disadvantaged in her previous race, chasing a loose-on-the-lead winner (Read the Research) that happens to be in this race. However, there is enough speed here to keep RTR honest, so I tossed GP's tandem effort against RTR and tried finding a paceline that was NOT an off-track or the AQU Inner (two turns). I landed on the 10th and final paceline, a one-turn mile at AQU main, against a pace that matches up with today's.

So the pace doesn't develop as I thought. Our speedster RTR from last time reverts to a presser mode attacking 22.3/45/1:09.4 -- a faster pace than the projected match-up. GP loped along in the rear, losing touch with the field at the half, before making a belated bid, sucking up past others late.

My question is whether I should have "reached" that far back to find a representative paceline, or just based on the horse's "history" of finding a way to "suck" up late, whether I should have even selected a paceline at all, even if she had some + and (+) races.

[vderdak]

I would of tossed the horse based on the jockey alone, 2%, and 1 for 55 this meet, I don't care what the horse shows, if I am betting to win only then out this horse goes, if the trainer and connections think he can get the job done then I don't trust them either.
I know it has nothing to do with pace but that's how I view these types of horses when considering them for any wager.

[Bill Lyster]

No problem with going deep to find a pace line. The Hat said to use the entire PPs.

However, there is a lot of info missing from this post that would assist the handicapping process. that being said, we have a horse that consistently runs in the top 4 and occasionally top 3. We cannot see field size so if the horse is beating half its field its probably not as big a "dog" as he looks!

We also do not see the other early competition which we need to see if they cancel each other out. We need to see the early times they run, how many E's, EP's, pressers and sustained. If the race pace is as you say it is very possible that all the early types were eliminated, making the race run Other than early, and opening up the win for this horse.

I would guess that the TPR ratings on this horse for the most part do not vary a lot, so the key to this horse winning is for the others to be forced to run faster early so that this horse competes well.

I often posed this same type of question to The Hat in this forum and his best answers were always a little oblique, because the form of the question did not have enough detail to allow him to be specific. Matchup is contextual to what everyone in the field is capable of doing vs today's anticipated pace. In my opinon you need to post the PPs for all horses in order to answer your question.

What i forgot to say before is that the PPs for this horse show it got beat by RTR 3 times previously, so from a tandem point of view it would take extenuating circumstances for this horse, using any line to beat RTR.

Regards

[Bill V.]

I would not go back 10 lines for any horse
This horse is 3 -32 lifetime You did your pluses and zeros
and it does go in and out of form consistently, It shows no wins in its PP's and basically settles in the same position for the drive.

Bill

[Jeebs]

My apologies for not being specific about the race in general. I'm still learning the match-up and Val4, but am getting some good insights to steer me in a good direction. I'm enjoying the forum and will continue to post races of interest and continue to improve.

[Mark]

In some of the posts by Richie P there is acknowledgment of using Power Lines from anywhere in the horse's PPs. While you sort of have to piece it together the gist of what "The Hat" was saying was..."once you have determined that the horse is fit and ready and a true contender, go get the appropriate Power Line." At least that is what I took the posts to mean. In another post, it was stated that there are three reasons why you would not do this 1) Not the same horse anymore, 2) Can no longer "get on top of his fractions" and 3) the horse has changed his running style.
I believe this pertains to win wagers mostly as that was Jim's forte but my own handicapping has shown that if you are fairly accurate projecting pace and the horse can run to that pace then if he is exclusive of those three caveats use the line.

[Bill V.]

Good point Mark

Is this the same horse ?

Lets say Orb runs in the Haskel at Monmouth
What pace line should we use ?
We already know that its Florida Derby line did not rate Orb very wellin the Kentucky Derby.
Those who went back 1 more race did get better readout. More on that later.

We are warned by Doc never use the Kentucky Derby line.
Orb's Preakness line in not a good effort.
Is the 12.0 Belmont stakes comparable to any other race?

So which line do we use ?
Is Orb really the same horse as he was 5 lines back, the G2400
race at GP. Is Orb the same horse today he was back then?
What would today's Orb do against the field he faced on Feb 13th ?
Hasn't he grown and matured ?
Something to consider when thinking about going back very far in a PP

Bill

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[Mark]

Bill,

Orb reminded me of Fusaichi Pegasus. I was using AODDS98 at the time and he was one of the very few Non-S horses to win the Derby. I did not like Orb’s Florida campaign and were it not for some highly unusual circumstances in the Derby Orb would be a small footnote in history. As it is I think he will be hard pressed to take any honors in the Fall Classics unless he can start running some final fractions. However, we will have to see who comes on the scene between now and then and how he recovers from his efforts in the Triple Crown races.
I have a great deal of respect for Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw. Since I found Pace and Cap and The Hat Check Blog, I have finally pieced together what I haven’t understood for the last 20 years about the Match Up. And that is now the basis of my play: Assign Running styles, project the pace of the race and find out who can run to it. But I don’t slavishly follow Sartin Doctrine nor every one of Doc’s admonishments. The end result is what matters. I want to feel the pace and what horses will be involved in it. In my view if you don’t know what is going on, how do you have confidence in putting any substantial money into it.
I also use other software and downloads that have more in depth trainer information and Pedigree stats. This is the age of information and it is all available to us via the Internet.
I cashed my first ticket at Del Mar in 1965. It was a $180 Daily Double when those were the first two races of the day. My Grandmother placed the bet for me. So I may be a Maiden in Pace and Cap’s eyes, but I have been at this game for nearly 40 years.

[Bill Lyster]

Hat did say that one of his favorite plays was the race within a race, so in Orb's case you can see 136.20 and 135.8 mile times to which you can add 6.4 seconds per half furlong to project for future races. IN the two fastest races he ran he overcame fast early fractions or his competition succumbed to them. I would like him better in races with strong early races and, in general, less so in races with more moderate paces, but in the end all that would be tempered by what the others in the race had accomplished at that days pace.

[Mark]

Bill,
Early 3yos are tough to project. That is why the Derby is such a difficult race to handicap. Projecting out a quarter mile at 6.4 sec per ½ furlong is not realistic in my view, nor my understanding of what Jim was saying. I would not go beyond a furlong tops with these youngsters. There is too much deceleration when these young horses go 1 ¼ miles for the first time
I only use 9f lines when I handicap the Derby and in that case I got hooked up with one of Pletcher’s horses out of a New York Prep and Lucas’ Will Take Charge. What did I learn in the Derby? Mostly that a number of horses went backwards off their last race. But I did hit the exacta a few times in the Preakness and then Palace Malice got me in the Belmont. I didn’t know Pletcher had put blinkers on in the Derby and that they were coming off for the Belmont until I was watching the telecast. My bad! I only use 3 horses in exactas so I had a profitable Triple Crown. The point is that I am consistent in my handicapping and apply the lessons I have learned over the years.
Handicapping is an individual thing. Making money at it is the only result that counts.

[Bill Lyster]

Mark:

The Hat's marathon method works because you don't project past the mile call. My point was that Orb with one of the top mile times was a top contender. Hat's view was that most of the energy had been expended in the first 8 furlongs and only those on or near the lead could win. No projection needed.

there are some interesting stats on winning horses in marathon races in the Match Up thread that directly relate to what The Hat said. It worked for all three triple crown races this year and several in the past.

Regards,

[Mark]

Bill,
My feeling is and was that ORB is a Presser. Most of his PPs show that he kicks it in the butt in his second fraction. But if he doesn’t reach the lead with that move he fades at these long distances. Or at best he passes exhausted horses. Maybe he is a miler but he is not suited to run these marathons as you call them. He has to lay too far off the pace to conserve energy.
You are exactly right, it is about position at that point. Those that are left standing at the head of the stretch are decelerating at similar rates. Oxbow chased decent fractions and held the lead at the mile in 136.4. In the next ½ mile Orb made very little headway and finished 1 ¾ lengths behind him. At the 1 ¼ mile point ORB was 3 ½ off the lead and yet he finished 5 back. He is not like Oxbow or Palace Malice who are basically Sustained horses that run on or near the lead. Bradshaw once told me and a group of others that there are three types of sustained horses: 1) Those that run on the lead 2) those that run from far back and 3) slow horses.
This is what makes these races so difficult. These are young horses that have never done these things before. And we are trying to use races at shorter distances to make an evaluation.
Jim Bradshaw was the most brilliant handicapper of our time, very possibly ever. He had intuition and learned instinct that few if any can duplicate. But I think he had difficulty verbalizing or writing about his process because it was basically seamless. He just knew…
All we can do is attempt to apply his concepts and principles over and over and over and over… and hope to gain some of his insight.

[Bill V.]

I still feel Orb got a bad rap and did run a very good Belmont

Here is the video of the 2013 Belmont

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd-5c4l-iKs


I also stopped and captured Orb's position at the
1/2, 3/4, 1 mile and finish

He made a big move on the turn and put himself into contention
at the 1 mile call would he have caught Oxbox and maybe Palace
with just a little better position early ?

Such is the life of a sustained runner
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[Mark]

Bill,
I am not here to offend you or diminish the racing efforts of one of the best early 3yos in the country. He has proven his grit and courage against that the best the breeding industry world over has to offer. He danced every dance. Took home the Roses!! He ran gamely at a distance in the Belmont he most likely will never have to run again. He may yet emerge as the best of his generation.
However, my opinion, that of one horse player is that he is a very nice horse but not the very top of his class. I am willing to take that stand based upon my knowledge and experience in this game.
So in the end all we have is a difference of opinion, nothing more and that’s what makes horse racing!