Betting question/opinion

[dirty moose]

Hey guys. So I've been working with Tim (LT1) he's been teaching me for a few months now. I asked him this question lastnight. I'm interested in everyone's options.


Lets say that you won't bet unless the odds are greater ththan 8/5 or whatever you prefer. One of your 2 horse goes off at
less than 8/5 and you other goes off above 8/5. Do you skip the race entirely? Do you just bet the one horse that is higher than 8/5? Or don't something else with the race?


Thanks for the input.
Matt

[Bill V.]

Hi Matt

I always need two horses to make my bet
If I see one of them fall below 2/1 I pass the race

I have no problems passing races ;)

There is another one coming up in a few minutes

Bill

[dirty moose]

Hey Bill this seems to be my problem.
I can only cap on the weekend so I never want to skip a race on the weekends.
But I can see I'm losing money in those spots.

[noddub62]

Hi Matt,

One the best (in my opinion) ways to get proficient in handicapping is to learn the art of passing races. There are many races where your top two or three horses are close in closing odds and if your wager on them you can lose money or at least not get any value for your bet.

There is a very good article in the Followup (don't remember which) about passing races. This has helped me a great deal with my handicapping. My personal requirements are pass if there are 2 at 2:1 or less, no value, an overwhelming favorite that is sitting on top of your readouts, and any time the race just doesn't feel right to you.

Keep records and see what works for you. Then you can cherry pick the races that you excel in and maybe make a cherry pie! :D

Have a good day,

Bud

[dirty moose]

I'm gonna try it out over the weekend. I think my results will deff go up.

[dirty moose]

Just passed 2 races in a row where one horse was low odds and both races my second horse came in pay $11 and $7. Frustrating! But I know I must stick to the game plan.

[Bill V.]

hello Matt

Here is the deal, Try to not think in terms of 1 horse or 2 horses
In The Sartin Methodology and wager-capping we need to think in terms of 3

What I mean and I hope I didn't miss guide you or anybody. When I handicap
a race I almost always have 5 win contenders But for now lets focus on the
top 3 If I have 3 horses on top of BLBL and 1 of them is under 5/2
I will bet the other 2 horses. If however 2 of the top 3 are under 5/2,
Now I only have 1 horse to bet so I will pass the race.

The value of wagercapping in the Sartin Methodology is that because you
by pass the low odds horse you now have two longer price horses.
The public made the low odds horse, Now since you have gone 2 horses
down on the odds board your looking at a horse who has just as good readouts. In the Sartin Methodology all three horse on top of your BLBL
should be considered as equal ability, The deciding factor is the near post time odds.

Here is what I mean

Race 1 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse A B and C since they are the top 3
BLBL they should be looked at as equal ability, You should not handicap off of the top 3 BLBL! Your handicapping is in your pace line selection.


Horse A is 5/2
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 5/1

Here my bets are horse A and C

Race Race 2 My BLBL shows as my top 3 Horse D E and F =All are equal
Horse A is 8/5
Horse B is 6/5
Horse C is 12/1

Here I have only 1 horse - horse C
So since I only bet to win, this is a pass
and I will tell you. I have been burned by horse C types !
Its a method that in the long run will pay off if you pass consistently.


THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS >>
Make sure the low odds horse is beatable !!
This is were its so important to learn FTL's lessons
Make sure before you throw out or in Doc's words "hide" a horse
for win only, Make sure the horse is not a man eater

Bill

[dirty moose]

This is a great post for all of us that are still learning the game.
Thanks Bill

[Latekick]

Hey Matt.
Ive also started working with LT and he has spoken high of you. Id like to go through some cards with you and see how you put what hes saying into your handicapping. hes realy helped me and I know he has said you are really progressing.
Send me a private message and ill send you my email so we can discuss some cards wherever you choose

[dirty moose]

Hey Latekick. LT is the man! He tough me so much out of the kindness of his heart. I really can't thank him enough. I should thank him even more for him listening to my complaining lol.

Ted has a way of connecting computers. We can do that and go thru a few races. Or we can use skype (which I tried to get LT on. We still need to help him lol)