Wed Aqu Race 5 / Feedback needed

[RichieP]

If any members here work Aqueduct can you help me please? Tomorrow's 5th race is scheduled at 8f. Nice big field listed.

Ok can folks that are using either:

Synthesis
Validator - any version
Speculator - any version

can you work the race using YOUR line selection method. Then hide to whatever number u do.

OK here are a set of criteria. Please look at your readouts and first identify:
1)the top 2 Epr horses.

ok now that you have them does either of them show in the top THREE of ALL the following categories:
1) LPR
2) BL/BL
3) PRIMARY LINE SCORE
4) V/DC - ( 3 screen on Spec series)

ok he has to be in top 3 of ALL the above listed categories please.

One final question. IF you have a qualifier is he 2.5 lenghts or CLOSER on the SCBL( second call beaten lenghts ) readout?

do you have a horse based on YOUR line selection that meets ALL the above criteria. If you do can you post who it is? I will do the same when I get the file later.

I ask because I am working on something and need help from as many as possible.

thanx in advance for any replies. I am gonna wait myself til the scratches are announced for that race as there are bound to be quite a few ok?

Richie:)

[Rverge]

hi richie
here is my screens from spec. 1 and 7. would toss the one if it is not scratched. 3 days ago "vaned off"

[Rverge]

2nd screen

[RichieP]

Before scratches I get:

# 6 - Karakorum Tuxedo ( 20/1 ml) as the sole qualifier on all categories and scbl.

I will see tomorrow after 11 am if the scratches change anything

Richie

[Rverge]

Before scratches I get:

# 6 - Karakorum Tuxedo ( 20/1 ml) as the sole qualifier on all categories and scbl.

I will see tomorrow after 11 am if the scratches change anything

Richie
richie
i went back and did the 2nd line back for 6. still comes up botom 5.
What line did you use?
john
ps work 7-3. will miss the race

[RichieP]

richie
i went back and did the 2nd line back for 6. still comes up botom 5.
What line did you use?
john
ps work 7-3. will miss the race

Hi John,
I used line 3.

I treat these 1 turn miles like a sprint fwiw. Going kinda way back for this line but the horse is 2nd bcak off layoff, last wasn't too bad, shows very sharp work couple of days back, has BETTERED this speed rating at THIS track last year at 6.5f.

Guessing game thats why I am hoping to get at least 4-5 replies beside mine.

Can I ask a favor please? going by YOUR readouts can u check the opening post and see if one of YOUR horses fits those categories I listed?

top 2 - epr
top 3 - tt-bl/bl-spn-3 screen

then if one does on the bl/bl screen is he 2.5 lenghts or closer on the "scbl" readout?

Thanx for the feedback John!
Richie

[alydar_ David]

Richie,

Here's what I've got pre-scratches (which is pretty much a joke at AQU as we all know).

If #1 Booming is running then this race is a pass as far as I'm concerned. Why? Because there is no data for his third race back which is his best finish in his last three races (best in his last eight races, for that matter).

Yeah, yeah, I know it was only 5.5F, but I want to see what kind of effort he exerted in that race. He came second and it was 39 days ago. Not exactly irrelevant.

Man, I really abhor missing data. Welcome to Trackmaster.

Anyway, I'll post another screen shot after scratches tomorrow. I'll answer your questions then as it will be more meaningful; it's a safe bet at least one horse will be scratched from this race. Now *there* is a bet I'd like to make! He he.

[admin]

Rich here are my readouts
of my top 5

[admin]

Hii Rich
If I can repost this after scratched I will

here are 2 more shots
neither of my top 2 EPRs (Both projected lines!)
qualifies

[RichieP]

Richie,


If #1 Booming is running then this race is a pass as far as I'm concerned. Why? Because there is no data for his third race back which is his best finish in his last three races (best in his last eight races, for that matter).

Yeah, yeah, I know it was only 5.5F, but I want to see what kind of effort he exerted in that race. He came second and it was 39 days ago. Not exactly irrelevant.


David,
Maybe this will help about line 3. This is what u would see "Validator wise" comparing lines 2 ( 6f) and line 3( 5.5f). According to Validator line 2 OVERALL is a bit stronger than line 3.

The ONLY category line 3 is best at is EPR matey. all others the 6f line is best.

screen shots of the 2 pacelines

[Ted Craven]

If #1 Booming is running then this race is a pass as far as I'm concerned. Why? Because there is no data for his third race back which is his best finish in his last three races (best in his last eight races, for that matter).

Yeah, yeah, I know it was only 5.5F, but I want to see what kind of effort he exerted in that race. He came second and it was 39 days ago. Not exactly irrelevant.

Man, I really abhor missing data. Welcome to Trackmaster.

David,

I think you might not have the updated par table for Validator which includes 5.5f AQU inner dirt. You can get it from here: www.ArtofPace.com/download/SpecValParUpd.zip (http://www.ArtofPace.com/download/SpecValParUpd.zip) There's some notes in the ZIP, but it's the CSTARP.DBF file you want to use for Val. Using that, I get the following for #1.

(It turns out it isn't TrackMaster's fault, but possibly 5.5f AQU inner dirt races weren't being run when Validator was programmed - or it was an omission - and that distance, on that surface wasn't in the software.)

[Ted Craven]

Just a further note about #1, Booming Economy, 3rd line back, here's the replay: 25Feb 1AQU (http://calracing.charlson.com/cbraceselector/cbmediaplayer.aspx?RaceDate=02/25/2006&CardID=AQU&RaceNumber=1) He closed like a freight train, but from too far back.

(Needs Internet Explorer and Windows Media Player, not Firefox)

Ted

[Ted Craven]

#1 Booming's last race was completely uninspiring, even before he pulled up in the stretch: 2Apr 5AQU (http://calracing.charlson.com/cbraceselector/cbmediaplayer.aspx?RaceDate=04/02/2006&CardID=AQU&RaceNumber=5).

[Ted Craven]

OK here are a set of criteria. Please look at your readouts and first identify:
1)the top 2 Epr horses.

ok now that you have them does either of them show in the top THREE of ALL the following categories:
1) LPR
2) BL/BL
3) PRIMARY LINE SCORE
4) V/DC - ( 3 screen on Spec series)

ok he has to be in top 3 of ALL the above listed categories please.

One final question. IF you have a qualifier is he 2.5 lenghts or CLOSER on the SCBL( second call beaten lenghts ) readout?

do you have a horse based on YOUR line selection that meets ALL the above criteria. If you do can you post who it is? I will do the same when I get the file later.

Richie:)
#6 Karakorum 3p, however,

1. I'm not sure that MTH line deserves no adjustment moving to AQU; at minimum, I would not hold it to it's top BL and LPR/CPR rankings.

2. I can't accept #8 Fiddler last line as representative - best, best ever, dropping from CL NW3 24 to open CL20 (?) So I used 2nd line.

3. Karakorum is slightly outside your SCBL cutoff

So, with these caveats, Karakorum most meets your filter. However, #3X Eastern Crown meets them also, if you deprecate #6's LPR off the MTH line.

Ted

[alydar_ David]

... but possibly 5.5f AQU inner dirt races weren't being run when Validator was programmed...

By Jove, I think he's got it!

Thanks Richie and Ted for making the new table.

I appreciate your screen shots, Richie.

And Ted, that link is wonderful. It worked like a champ. Many thanks!

:>)

[RichieP]

Something interesting to note before the scratches come.

NOBODY has the ml favorite # 2 entry ANYWHERE on readouts.

Richie
" to be aware is to be alive" - William Tomlin - Phoenix House Director -2001

[RichieP]

Scratches

[RichieP]

After scratches

[Ted Craven]

Spec150, after scratches

[alydar_ David]

Here's my Val3 view after scratches. Richie, #1a is the only horse that qualifies per all your requirements.

[RichieP]

ok I went and put "RVerge" lines in to specpa ( I believe he uses that) I removed the 1 who was scratched( plus he hated him to start :) . He doesn't get a full qualifier as his # 8 misses on the 3 screen.
so far we have:

RVerge - no qualifier
Bill - no qualifier
Ted - no qualifier
Richie- # 6
"Aly" - # 1a

hopefully maybe 1 or 2 more can chime in.

NO right or wrong here.Matter of fact the " no qualifiers" might prove MOST important down the road a bit.This is a fact finding mission. I have a CRAZY idea about something and want to see what pans out ok? Iam gonna post a few more races with these strange criteria in the next week or so.

I encourage EVERYONE to weigh in. If I am right in my gut there are CERTAIN races where a "group mentality" is going to overpower everything else( I might have found something to identify these races) . Now in THIS race the most telling thing so far is that NOBODY has the ml favorite ANYWHERE on the readouts.

ok we will keep it moving along

Please anyone reading this CHIME IN.

Regards,
Richie Pizzicara

[jms62]

3X is a dual qualifier for me..

[RichieP]

They cancelled the remainder of the card. WTF? the sun is shining brightly here in New Rochelle and I am 20 minutes form the track. Oh well another day.

JMS thanx for the feedback! PLEASE join in next race that comes up.

Richie

[Ted Craven]

Oh well. I was wondering why my AQU toteboard and audio feed died. Guess it's back to work...

Ted:(

[alydar_ David]

... join in next race that comes up.

Richie

How about these for today?
All of these meet your test criteria per Val3.

BEU:
6th: 6
8th: 6

GP:
8th: 7

LRL
6th: 7 6
8th: 1

OP:
5th: 2
6th: 1
7th: 4 7
10th: 4

And I'm doing California now.

[alydar_ David]

...Guess it's back to work...

Ted:(

Ted, before you jump back into those murky labor waters, do you have a magic par patch for SA 5.5F?

:>)

[alydar_ David]

Richie,

I thought I'd take this for a test drive today with small money, $5 to $7 a race (one horse to win and place if a sole qualifier, with 40% win and 60% place). After hitting the first at AQU which paid $9.50 I was encouraged to continue. Hit the first two at BEU paying $6.40 and $3.60.

Unfortunately, that's the end of the good news. It's been a relative drought since then, down net $45 without another win.

The California picks are rather chalky, but what can you expect from tiny fields? Let's see how this fares.

GG:
2nd: 5
4th: 5 1
5th: 4
7th: 6

SA:
3rd: 5
4th: 3 8 (this was taken off the turf)
5th: 6
6th: 4 7
7th: 2 6

[alydar_ David]

In the same vein:

TP:
2nd: 2
5th: 9
6th: 6
8th: 10 5

[alydar_ David]

Had some hits including this one and am now comfortably up for the day. Be interesting to see how this works at EVD!

Oaklawn Park
Race: 7 Win Place Show
1st 7 BLACK CARD 31.20 9.80 5.40
2nd 4 ADVANTAGE JACK 3.60 2.80
3rd 2 BLUE DUCK 3.00
4th 3 ANDROMEDA GARDENS
$2 Exacta 7-4 88.60

[RichieP]

Richie,

I thought I'd take this for a test drive today with small money, $5 to $7 a race (one horse to win and place if a sole qualifier, with 40% win and 60% place). After hitting the first at AQU which paid $9.50 I was encouraged to continue. Hit the first two at BEU paying $6.40 and $3.60.

Unfortunately, that's the end of the good news. It's been a relative drought since then, down net $45 without another win.

The California picks are rather chalky, but what can you expect from tiny fields? Let's see how this fares.

GG:
2nd: 5
4th: 5 1
5th: 4
7th: 6

SA:
3rd: 5
4th: 3 8 (this was taken off the turf)
5th: 6
6th: 4 7
7th: 2 6


OK let me explain please.

The set of corrolaries I posted are for Aqu 8f one turn mile races. These were gathered by 2 cappers independent of one another for appx 40 races.

I also have a different set for Aqu 6f - Mnr 5.5f - Mnr 8f - Evd 6f - Evd 8f

These are the other tracks and distances I am gonna put up down the road

Richie

[alydar_ David]

Even a blind hog... LOL!

And the hits keep on coming! This is too funny. :>)

Race: 4 Win Place Show
1st 8 SILK KERCHIEF 11.40 4.40 3.40
2nd 3 JANZIG MOON 3.40 3.00
3rd 6 STAR'O MY HEART 4.20
4th 7 HEIRLOOM ROSE
$2 D/Double 5/8 59.40
$2 Exacta 8-3 39.20

[RichieP]

LMAO! Go head Aly!

oooohhhhhhhhh Jesu Christo ooohhhhhhhhhhh

are u serious :eek:

[alydar_ David]

This may be a classic SSS -- Serendipity Strikes Situaion

Main Entry: ser·en·dip·i·ty
Function: noun
Etymology: from its possession by the heroes of the Persian fairy tale The Three Princes of Serendip
: the faculty or phenomenon of finding valuable or agreeable things not sought for

Let's push the envelope.

CT:
4th: 3
5th: 4

EVD:
2nd: 8 4
3rd: 3
7th: 8
8th: 3 7

[alydar_ David]

Last track.

PEN:
1st: 1 2
2nd: 7 6
3rd: 1
4th: 1
5th: 9 6
9th: 7

[shoeless]

Be careful at CT,the track was closed for 10 days due to track maintenence.By the looks of the first couple of races it could be speed city.Shoeless

[Ted Craven]

Ted, before you jump back into those murky labor waters, do you have a magic par patch for SA 5.5F?

:>)

David,

Can you cite me a specific date, race # and horse for that?

Thanks,

Ted

[alydar_ David]

Thanks for the heads up, Jeff.

This little experiment didn't work out too well, as I gave everything back this evening (advance betting).

When all the dust had cleared the net loss was $25.40 for the prolonged session. Oh well, that's not all that surprising. It was exciting for a little while at least.

Ted, I'm not on that computer at the moment, but I'll check it out later. I *think* it was from the second race today at SA, but I'm not positive.

Thanks.

[RichieP]

When all the dust had cleared the net loss was $25.40 for the prolonged session.

David,

What was the result if only win bets are made at $ 5.00 per race regardless of odds? Curious since you wagered a lot of tracks and horses.

If u dont have the info no biggie
thanx
Richie

[alydar_ David]

Richie,

I can look that up tonight or tomorrow when I get back; going out of town for the day to the simulcasting center.

Do you mean a flat $2 win bet on all selections that qualified, even if there were two horses in the race? Or, would...say something like betting $10/race be easier to follow?

For example, if only one horse qualified bet $10 to win.
If two horses, and both 3-1 or more, bet $5 to win on each.
If two horses, and one of them is 5/2 (or less) bet 60% 40%

What I did was push after I got up, betting 10% of my bankroll. And of course using that to advance bet is silly, but that's what I did. No big deal as these were small bets, but that's certainly not an intelligent way to wager.

Let me know and I'll look it later and tell you.

[Ted Craven]

Ted, I'm not on that computer at the moment, but I'll check it out later. I *think* it was from the second race today at SA, but I'm not positive.


It looks to me that 5.5f (dirt) races at SA work fine in Val3, with the latest pars (and I thought, before, too). here's a few screen shots of 5.5f pacelines at SA, and a 5.5f race...

Can you clarify?

Ted

[RichieP]

Do you mean a flat $2 win bet on all selections that qualified, even if there were two horses in the race? Or, would...say something like betting $10/race be easier to follow?
Let me know and I'll look it later and tell you.


If it's ok can u check this please:

1) flat $ 2.00 win bet on each qualifying horse. IF there are 2 qualifiers in the race bet only the HIGHEST odds horse to win of the 2 please.

FORGET place
FORGET 2 horses to win

let's see what shakes out.

Thanx David
good skill today up at Shoreline Star matey:)

Richie

[RichieP]

Richie,

I can look that up tonight or tomorrow when I get back; going out of town for the day to the simulcasting center.

Do you mean a flat $2 win bet on all selections that qualified, even if there were two horses in the race? Or, would...say something like betting $10/race be easier to follow?

For example, if only one horse qualified bet $10 to win.
If two horses, and both 3-1 or more, bet $5 to win on each.
If two horses, and one of them is 5/2 (or less) bet 60% 40%

What I did was push after I got up, betting 10% of my bankroll. And of course using that to advance bet is silly, but that's what I did. No big deal as these were small bets, but that's certainly not an intelligent way to wager.

Let me know and I'll look it later and tell you.

David,
Out of self curiosity I just finished a 3 track test of those corrolaries and win betting the best odds horse if there was more than 1 qualifier. Interesting

Aqu - r1- loss
Aqu - r7 -loss
Gp - r1 - loss
Gp - r6 - win $ 4.20
Gp - r7 - win $ 6.80
Lrl - r5 - loss
Lrl - r6 - loss
Lrl - r7 - win $ 23.80

bet - $ 16.00
ret - $ 34.80

I have screen shots of all the races including paceline selection , hiding , etc

lemme know what u found from yesterday.

Rich

[alydar_ David]

Ted,

When I ran it again this evening the 5.5F data was there. I'm guessing what happened is when Val blew up for the third or fourth time (which it does every single day I use it) somehow that corrupted the data.

I have no idea how that works.

Incidentally, before you gave that swell tip about deleting those three files -- i.e., namedateh.dgf, namedatep.dbf and namedater.dbf -- after Val blows up I was routinely just giving up on that track (and sometimes all tracks for the day.).

Now at least I can start over (sometimes I have to reboot as the computer won't let me delete them, saying they are in use) and finish a card. That in itself has been a real lifesaver. Thanks for that wonderful tip!

I don't know if other people have the same problem with Val blowing up that often. I assume they do, but hey...what do I know?

[alydar_ David]

If it's ok can u check this please:
1) flat $ 2.00 win bet on each qualifying horse. IF there are 2 qualifiers in the race bet only the HIGHEST odds horse to win of the 2 please...


Okay, going by those parameters the results are actually worse than what I obtained (most of the hits were short, 60%/40% was the only saving grace).

Here's the skivy doing it your way.

48 Bets made in total, at almost all tracks which were running on 4/5/2006
Wins: $6.40, 4.40, 31.20, 5.80, 2.60, 11.40, 6.80, 5.60 and 3.80.
Gross:$78.00
Cost: 96.00
Net: ($18.00)

Win% = 0.1875
R.O.I. = Negative

[Ted Craven]

David,

Glad it helped. In Val (and Spec) the 'F=Fix Download' on the Main Menu does the same thing (i.e. deletes the 3 working files for the chosen card). With this, you shouldn't get an 'in use' message from the software because that routine closes the files first. But, as you say, youc an always close the software, hunt for the files and just kill 'em.

Ted

[alydar_ David]

David,

Glad it helped. In Val (and Spec) the 'F=Fix Download' on the Main Menu does the same thing (i.e. deletes the 3 working files for the chosen card). With this, you shouldn't get an 'in use' message from the software because that routine closes the files first. But, as you say, youc an always close the software, hunt for the files and just kill 'em.

Ted

Another nifty tip!

Thanks, Ted.

:>)