Because I Can Jim
08-15-2013, 05:01 PM
I do have a life. LOL But, these are the things I think about at 4:00am when I am cooking my wife's meals for the day and when I get a chance to post during my busy day, I do.
In the thread I started on "How To Make People Believe" (Click here to go to that post - http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9321 ) I wrote about how my misses wagered on three different horses to win in one race based on the odds on the tote board. What I didn't write is the rest of the story....
I had asked her why she was betting on so many horses to win. She replied that she wanted to get the winner in the race to which I countered that she should bet on all of the horses to win in the race. This way she will be sure to get the winner.
She laughed because she thought that I thought that she was a big fool. She said that if she did that, she would lose money. However,......
When I said that that was true if the favorite won the race, what would happen if that longshot going off at 30-1 won the race? The horse would pay $62 and wouldn't she make money even though she only wagered $14? She stopped laughing at me and her face showed consternation as it reflected that the question asked went against her immediate belief.
So, here is the scenario.... (Yes, these are the strange things I think about! LOL)
At 1 MTP the tote board shows the following odds for the horses (I'm keeping it simple but not out of the realm of reality):
H1 going off at 1-1
H2 going off at 2-1
H3 going off at 4-1
H4 going off at 6-1
H5 going off at 8-1
H6 going off at 10-1
H7 going off at 15-1
We have to make an assumption ( I can do this because this is theoretical and besides it is my scenario so I can make up whatever rules I please! LOL) that any monies wagered after you make your wager does not change the odds in any way.
The guestion is:
"Would you bet every horse in the race to win? Why or why not?"
Think about it.... and reply with your response!
You are wagering $14 on the race ($2 x 7 horses = $14).
7 horses in the race. The 4 horse is break even if it wins. 3 horses would be losers if they won. 3 horses would be winners if they won. That is 50%/50%. The amount you would win when the higher odds horses come in would be greater than the amount you lose when the lose odds horses come in so on 50% of the horses you are making more money and on 50% of the horses you are losing but not losing as much and can almost be thought of as a rebate because you are getting money back when they win instead of losing the full amount.
Would you make this bet? Why or why not?
Jim
In the thread I started on "How To Make People Believe" (Click here to go to that post - http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9321 ) I wrote about how my misses wagered on three different horses to win in one race based on the odds on the tote board. What I didn't write is the rest of the story....
I had asked her why she was betting on so many horses to win. She replied that she wanted to get the winner in the race to which I countered that she should bet on all of the horses to win in the race. This way she will be sure to get the winner.
She laughed because she thought that I thought that she was a big fool. She said that if she did that, she would lose money. However,......
When I said that that was true if the favorite won the race, what would happen if that longshot going off at 30-1 won the race? The horse would pay $62 and wouldn't she make money even though she only wagered $14? She stopped laughing at me and her face showed consternation as it reflected that the question asked went against her immediate belief.
So, here is the scenario.... (Yes, these are the strange things I think about! LOL)
At 1 MTP the tote board shows the following odds for the horses (I'm keeping it simple but not out of the realm of reality):
H1 going off at 1-1
H2 going off at 2-1
H3 going off at 4-1
H4 going off at 6-1
H5 going off at 8-1
H6 going off at 10-1
H7 going off at 15-1
We have to make an assumption ( I can do this because this is theoretical and besides it is my scenario so I can make up whatever rules I please! LOL) that any monies wagered after you make your wager does not change the odds in any way.
The guestion is:
"Would you bet every horse in the race to win? Why or why not?"
Think about it.... and reply with your response!
You are wagering $14 on the race ($2 x 7 horses = $14).
7 horses in the race. The 4 horse is break even if it wins. 3 horses would be losers if they won. 3 horses would be winners if they won. That is 50%/50%. The amount you would win when the higher odds horses come in would be greater than the amount you lose when the lose odds horses come in so on 50% of the horses you are making more money and on 50% of the horses you are losing but not losing as much and can almost be thought of as a rebate because you are getting money back when they win instead of losing the full amount.
Would you make this bet? Why or why not?
Jim