Sar 8-24-13

[Segwin]

Does anyone have yesterdays race at Sar loaded?

I'm interested in the 11th race. I bet Central Banker atb which came in 3rd and paid 14.80 but what really caught me eye, in watching the replay, was Capo Bastone winning at 28-1 odds :eek:

Is there anything in RDSS that shows that this horse stood a chance? I'm going to kick myself if there is.

Bill?

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

That's great you bet Central Banker "ATB" :confused:

I could just come on here and tell you my opinion on the winner

35502

But first I need you to do some work

What do you see in this # 3 horse that points to winning the 11th race
What factors were apparent with Central Banker that you could apply to the winner .

35503

Waiting for you reply

[Segwin]

Hi Terry

That's great you bet Central Banker "ATB" :confused:


Waiting for you reply

ATB = across the board, I bet him to win, place and show.

I'll get to work on the assignment in a little while. Busy putting together next weeks lunches/salads with the wife. It seems to make her happy and I've found after 28 years a happy Nancy is a pleasure to be around ;)

[Segwin]

As for the #3 using his last line doesn't put him in a very good light. Having said that it looks like he runs a good race then a bad, then a good, then a bad so this race would have been on his uptick.

He was running G1 but then started dropping in grade. His is working back up in the ranks now.

His running style looks more like a P and not a S.

To tell you the truth Bill beside his cyclical nature nothing jumps out at me. :confused:

As far as the #12 horse I bet him because of his returning race after being off for 270 days. He came down the stretch and made the rest of the field look like they were standing still. I put him in the virtual stable and made a note to bet on him in his next race.

As for what factors that could apply to the winner again I'm stumped.

I'm very interested in hearing your take on things (which will help me better my game).

[Appy]

"His running style looks more like a P and not a S."

Really? The 3?
When I look at his body of work in 8 starts I don't see Presser jumping off that page. He only overcame his poor starts and poor position at 1c and 2c three times in eight tries, and only once before the stretch.
By comparison of the two, the 12 looks more like a presser to me.
What is it I'm seeing wrong?

[Segwin]

"His running style looks more like a P and not a S."

Really? The 3?
When I look at his body of work in 8 starts I don't see Presser jumping off that page. He only overcame his poor starts and poor position at 1c and 2c three times in eight tries, and only once before the stretch.
By comparison of the two, the 12 looks more like a presser to me.
What is it I'm seeing wrong?

The way I read his races are:

1 -P
2 -P
3 -S
4 -P
5 -P
6 -P
7 -S
8 -P

Perhaps I'm not reading his style correctly ??

[Bill V.]

I agree with APPY

If the 3 is pressing, he is only pressing pressers. ;)
Look at its break and F1 positions and where the horse is by position in the total field at the second call

Line 1 0 NF
Line 2 ( 1 turn CD mile ) Sus +
Line 3, 0 NF
Line 4 SP +
Line 5 Sus +
Line 6 Sus +
Line 7 Sus (+)
Line 8 Sus +

At the second call, here are horse # 3 positions.
Only in race 4 and 7 is this horse in the front half of the field.

L1 11th of 11
L2 8th of 9
L3 11th of 12
L4 2nd of 8
L5 8th of 9
L6 9th of 11
L7 4th of 11
L8 7th of 9

[Segwin]

Thanks Bill.

Looks like I need to brush up on correctly identifying running styles. :o

Which manual discusses this Bill?

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

Some suggestions
The Red Match Up manual
Pace Makes The Race
Modern Pace Handicapping

You also will do well if you use the Pace and Cap google site search
and type Identify running styles

You will see lots of good post by Richie P and Hat in the Match Up forum

[Bill Lyster]

This came from the Hatcheck forum, (with some parenthetical adds from current matchers):

"Early: 1st at all calls. (He means always first at first call)

Early Presser: 2nd at first call. (runs no more than half a length off lead - so it was trying for the lead; any more than 1/2 back and horse is a presser;)

Presser: 3rd at first call.

Sustained Presser: 4th, or 5th at first call.

Sustained: at 6-9 at first call.

Late: 10th, or more at the first call.

The Hat"


Hope this helps,

[Segwin]

This came from the Hatcheck forum, (with some parenthetical adds from current matchers):

"Early: 1st at all calls. (He means always first at first call)

Early Presser: 2nd at first call. (runs no more than half a length off lead - so it was trying for the lead; any more than 1/2 back and horse is a presser;)

Presser: 3rd at first call.

Sustained Presser: 4th, or 5th at first call.

Sustained: at 6-9 at first call.

Late: 10th, or more at the first call.

The Hat"


Hope this helps,

That does help - thanks.