DaveEdwards
09-06-2013, 08:38 AM
What follows are notes that I've made on the article by Marion Jones in Follow Up issue 1 where he offers guidance on how to approach handicapping. I'm posting it really hoping to gather peoples thoughts on best practice. Not so much handicapping, but really more focused on modus operandi if you will.
I've a perfect example of how not to do things from myself yesterday at FL. Race 3 over 6F was won by #6 American Trilogy. In my haste I selected line 2 which was a sprint line without taking the time to look at the last race which was a route. Needless to say when looking back at the race and seeing how easily I could have had the $24.80 return altered my equilibrium somewhat.
I've decided it will be better for me to go along Marion's more considered approach. I'm sure I've read somewhere else that Dick Schmidt does his lines the night before.
What follows are my notes on Marion's writing, so please forgive any omissions etc. Some is copied other bits are worded by me a little.
(Ted, I'm not precious about this thread at all, if this isn't the correct part of the forum for this posting please move to where you feel more appropriate).
.............................................................................................
In-Depth Analysis of the Racing Form – Marion Jones.
Go over the results to see the factors that the winners have in common.
Check the race conditions & make sure you thoroughly understand them. Take the time to read the fine print. Note the cut off point for winners since a certain date and what trainers may do if entering for a low claiming price.
Check to see how well the horse fits the conditions of today’s race. Also the age, some horses are well past their sell by date.
When looking at the PPs, take your time. Handicappers aren’t entering a race themselves. Allow yourself the time you need to thoroughly analyse the races.
Within the framework of the PP is a picture of the personality of each horse & you must take the time to view it from every point of view. This will give you the winning edge over the casual race goer and most of the others at the track too.
• Note the winning and good efforts.
• Check the trouble lines to see if it did actually impact the horse in that race.
• Check the class for all the winning efforts.
• Check if there is a pattern of good & bad races. The +, (+) & 0.
• Note the date of the last race and last winning/good effort.
• Check the pacelines that occur just before each winning effort. You are looking for personality, training patterns, condition and winning cycles.
• Check if the horse was claimed & see how the horse has responded to it’s new surroundings and trainer.
• In short take a look at every line of the PP of each horse.
Take your time, there is no hurry. Far too many people concern themselves with only the last two or three lines leaving many stones unturned. You must go further than them.
By doing the extra work you’ll soon spot many negatives that point to a horse’s lack of potential or the difficulties the trainer is having getting or keeping the horse in condition. As you look at all the factors presented, you’ll find yourself developing an in-depth picture of the race and how each horse fits in.
The elimination process now begins and often you are left with only a few entries that have even a possibility of winning this race. All the information you need is in the PP.
It is of critical importance that you give each race the diligent and thorough study that it deserves.
Some days you may have a few races that are bettable, sometimes one, sometimes none. If there are none, go back and do some work on past races.
I've a perfect example of how not to do things from myself yesterday at FL. Race 3 over 6F was won by #6 American Trilogy. In my haste I selected line 2 which was a sprint line without taking the time to look at the last race which was a route. Needless to say when looking back at the race and seeing how easily I could have had the $24.80 return altered my equilibrium somewhat.
I've decided it will be better for me to go along Marion's more considered approach. I'm sure I've read somewhere else that Dick Schmidt does his lines the night before.
What follows are my notes on Marion's writing, so please forgive any omissions etc. Some is copied other bits are worded by me a little.
(Ted, I'm not precious about this thread at all, if this isn't the correct part of the forum for this posting please move to where you feel more appropriate).
.............................................................................................
In-Depth Analysis of the Racing Form – Marion Jones.
Go over the results to see the factors that the winners have in common.
Check the race conditions & make sure you thoroughly understand them. Take the time to read the fine print. Note the cut off point for winners since a certain date and what trainers may do if entering for a low claiming price.
Check to see how well the horse fits the conditions of today’s race. Also the age, some horses are well past their sell by date.
When looking at the PPs, take your time. Handicappers aren’t entering a race themselves. Allow yourself the time you need to thoroughly analyse the races.
Within the framework of the PP is a picture of the personality of each horse & you must take the time to view it from every point of view. This will give you the winning edge over the casual race goer and most of the others at the track too.
• Note the winning and good efforts.
• Check the trouble lines to see if it did actually impact the horse in that race.
• Check the class for all the winning efforts.
• Check if there is a pattern of good & bad races. The +, (+) & 0.
• Note the date of the last race and last winning/good effort.
• Check the pacelines that occur just before each winning effort. You are looking for personality, training patterns, condition and winning cycles.
• Check if the horse was claimed & see how the horse has responded to it’s new surroundings and trainer.
• In short take a look at every line of the PP of each horse.
Take your time, there is no hurry. Far too many people concern themselves with only the last two or three lines leaving many stones unturned. You must go further than them.
By doing the extra work you’ll soon spot many negatives that point to a horse’s lack of potential or the difficulties the trainer is having getting or keeping the horse in condition. As you look at all the factors presented, you’ll find yourself developing an in-depth picture of the race and how each horse fits in.
The elimination process now begins and often you are left with only a few entries that have even a possibility of winning this race. All the information you need is in the PP.
It is of critical importance that you give each race the diligent and thorough study that it deserves.
Some days you may have a few races that are bettable, sometimes one, sometimes none. If there are none, go back and do some work on past races.