Bill V....or anyone Parx Tuesday?

[polambi]

Hi,

Good news and bad news! The good news is that I was brave enough today to venture at Parx (which I'm not familiar with), and I managed to close the day $160 richer by catching the exacta in the last race:).
The not-so-good news is that I almost bet on the #6 horse to win in the 5th race. It got beaten by the 1A, which was not one of my main concerns. Although I did not bet in that race, I am trying to find out if there is a logical explanation for the 1a winning the race over #6 ??? Did I miss anything?
Paul

[Bill V.]

Hello Paul

First off lets focus on the positive. You did great in race 10 so lets look at that race.

I did not bet today because of the muddy track So I'm only showing you what I saw when I worked the race.

Its so nice that you posted the #5 horse. You Betcha Babe who placed.
As we can see in your screen shot YBB just won 7 days ago in a Starter Allowance 16 at Parx
I am now going to show the pp's from that race.

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The race on Oct 1 was for horses who have started for a claiming price of $16000 and who also have never won 2 races Its important to always read the conditions, The race on Oct 1 was not that much different than a
CL 16000 non winner of 2 life time except the horses in the
Starter Allowance race can not be claimed. Its important to see the sub conditions of the starter allowance races at parx because the have " and "
and "or" sub conditions. In the race on Oct 1 all the entrants had just their maiden wins

Anyway somebody posted recently about striking while the iron is hot
and FTL teaches us about why would you keep a in form winner in the barn.
They came right back in 7 days and got a solid place payoff today.

I also see in both the Oct 1 race and todays race the horse had a plus paceline in its last race, definitely fits the guidelines here of a plus line within
the last 90 days,

Now here is the winner # 2 This horse also is in good form. It has 3 plus +
races in a row and all within 90 days.

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It just won this class level but for non winners of 2 life time
then it came right back and ran a plus+ race in its first try against Non winners of 3 life. The last line is a plus line and the line to use.
I also show some real good form factors
Besides the 3 plus + pace lines The Money Room has improved its speed ratings, total energy and TPR numbers

It was a solid exacta for you. Good Work

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[Segwin]

Great hit! Feels good no?

Parx is my main track to play. I have a hard time keeping my eyes open after 9 pm so it fits well. I also have gotten use to the names of jocks and trainers which helps.

[For The Lead]

In this race, as it is in most races, the key is just following the guidelines. Let’s take a look.

#Solid-1, FTS
#1A – last line. This is a "(+)" race. The horse made a good "middle move" both in gaining one position and gaining in lengths to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. I opened the “trip tab” so you could see the last race comments. Keep in mind that this is the only race of this horse’s three lifetime races that can be used, since it is the only race of the three that was at a similar distance and on the same surface. The trip tab says the horse “stumbled” at the start AND was “wide”. The reason I am making special mention of this is because there was another horse in that race that is in today’s race and I’ll take a close look at that horse (#6) as well.
#2 – NO LINE.
#3 – FTS
#4 – NO LINE. The horse has no qualifying race(s). Every race showing was a sprint race.
#5 – NO LINE. The horse’s last race was absolutely absurd, being put in a “ST” race. The only other race the horse had was a sprint.
#6 – NO LINE. This is the horse that ran against the 1A the last time these two horses ran. Looking at the “trip tab”, it says the horse was off “a step slow” and was “very wide”. In my opinion, if we use the last line for the 1A then we should use the last line for the #6, except the last line for the #6 is not a “+” or a “(+)” line. If there are those out there that feel they should go back a line on this horse, I won’t argue your point. At the end of this post I am going to put up two screen shots, one without the #6 and one with the #6, just for a comparison.
#7 – NO LINE.
#8 – Last line.

First, I’m just going to post PP’s for the 1A and 6.
Then I will post the two screen shots I mentioned. These screen shots will be of the “TPR Tab”.

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Notice in the next two screen shots, the the 1A is the best EPR, with or without the #6 horse.

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[polambi]

Thanks FTL and Bill V.
Race 5 was definitely a tough one to get in my opinion. I was willing to forgive the last race of horse #6, because it was MS 92, while today's race is MS 46. Therefore, I would use the second line, which seemed quite appropriate, because it is also MS 46 at the same distance as today's. One thing I did not notice was the tandem race that they had. Well, I'll pay more attention to the tandems from now on. At least I did not bet, and I learned a good lesson. I have to say, though, #6 ran a pretty good race, regardless. Let's see what tomorrow has in store for me :)

[Bill V.]

Hi Paul

That MS92 is an Illusion.
Yes the purse was twice that of a MS 46 but that was a gift purse

All the races at Parx run on "owner appreciation day "and Pennsylvania derby day had double the usual
purses. The lone MS 69 from 9/2 was on Smarty Jones Day at Parx
This horse ran in the Sept 21 race but in that race, Victoria was the only horse that has ever run for a higher purse than $46000

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If you notice both line 1 and line 2 have the same race class of 78 also line 4 has the same 78 RC
There rearlly is no difference between line 1 or 2 as far as competition

Once "owner appreciation day " was over they went back to the normal
MS 46 purse. They start at $45000 for most of the year then they up the purse for the Maiden Specials to $46000 in late August.

Here are all the Maiden Specials run at Parx in 2013.

The column headings are

Date - Race # - Surface - Distance - Race Class - Age Sex

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[Segwin]

Thanks FLT & Bill for the instruction with this race.

[polambi]

Hi Bill V. Thanks for clarifying the tricky stuff for me. There is no way I could have realized that the MS92 race was not more competitive than the MS46. So, I'll go back to focusing on the RC like I used to do. Have a nice day :)
Paul

[Bill V.]

Hi Paul

You can use both the RC and the class race

Lets say for example you see a MS46 next Saturday at Parx
There is a horse you consider a contender with a RC of 80

If you keep records and know that the MS46 races at Parx are around a 78 RC
You could say that the 80 race was a little better, But the important thing about class is based if a horse is rising dropping or staying at the same class level.

So rather than worry about one MS at Parx to another I use this RC data
as a guide to where horses go once they win.

Lets give another example

Lets say Horse A wins a maiden claimer 25000 with a race class of 82
and Horse B wins a Maiden Special 46000 with a RC of 78

Today they are both in a Allowance 48 NW1/2-L. The average RC for this class race at Parx is 97.
Which horse would you say is making the bigger class jump ?

My answer is Horse A, the horse that ran in the MC25,000. I would prefer horse B. even though it ran in a lower race class 82-78.

Hope this example help show how you still need to understand the conditions
of the race and the class ladder at the tracks where you wager

[polambi]

Thanks for your patience, Bill. I have to admit that I still have a lot to learn about CLASS, which, apparently is more complicated than just knowing the distinction between Stakes, allowances and claimings.
I have ordered The Handicapper's Condition Book, Revised: An Advanced Treatment of Thoroughbred Class.
I should receive it by tomorrow. I'm hoping it will help me get a better understanding of the matter.
Thanks again.
Paul