Can this early horse go all the way? [Archive] - Pace and Cap

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polambi

11-05-2013, 01:03 PM

Hi,
Early type horses are my favorites. I have no problem identifying them, since RDSS does it for me automatically. But sometimes they take off first, keep the lead for 3/4 of the race...and fade. Ouch!
Is there a way to find out when an early horse can go all the way? (beside form factor).
All comments welcome:)

Bill V.

11-05-2013, 01:49 PM

Hi Paul

Well the very first thing you need to know is how much other early pressure
there will be in the race. Its not a law that this will make a early horse fade
but it will effect the total energy the horse has available
Bill

polambi

11-05-2013, 06:55 PM

Bill, thanks very much for taking the time to answer my question. I appreciate it. Enjoy your B-Day!

Appy

11-08-2013, 08:33 PM

I guess this is what Bill is saying, but I have noticed that just because the program identifies a horse as a lone early doesn't mean that is necessarily the horse that will get the lead.
Got to read those pacelines and do the matchup to figure it out.
I don't like the PPs that show leader's fractions as well as those that show the horse's own fractions. Sometimes I get confused going from one to the other.