Setting the fulcrum POR

[Bill V.]

This video is not to promote the value of the fulcrum method

I find that it may not be the best method to project the POR ,it still works
very well. Not so much to project the pace of race but it is very predictive
in seeing which horses are contenders in today's race

In the video you will see I did not consider the #1 as a fulcrum qualifier.
It was very close to being with 5 beaten lengths at the second call and the finish but its not close enough :)

I also show how to highlight the second call - but you can do the same thing
and highlight all 4 calls by right mouse clicking over the pace of race fractions
and final time.

Here is the video. The race is Parx race 6 today 12/7/13

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[polambi]

Great video Bill! Refresher for me.
Have nice weekend :)

[Appy]

GOOD JOB Bill.
You should do more of those for all phases of working a race with RDSS. It's much more like doing it yourself, but without the trial and error guesswork.
Give yourself a blue star! :)

[dirty moose]

Questiong for you Bill, how come you don't set the fulcrum based on the line you will using in the race?

[Bill V.]

Questiong for you Bill, how come you don't set the fulcrum based on the line you will using in the race?

According to the book Pace Makes The Race pg, 104 M. Pizzolla

" First of all, the fulcrum pace is always taken from a horse's last pace line.
Always. This is a rule as far as I am concerned. I get comments often at
seminars about this, and I point out to the person making the comment that
since I am the person who came up with the concept of the fulcrum pace, I
am entitled to have the final say on what is or isn't a fulcrum pace ! Always
take the fulcrum from the last line. Even if a horse typically runs faster and
in its last race a runaway rhinoceros interfered with this horse causing it to
run a second call ten seconds slower than usual, use another horse: always
take the fulcrum pace from the horse's last paceline. You may ask why I am
repeating this so often and why I am so insistent about this. When I first
presented the concept of the fulcrum pace, I had several exceptions to using
the last pace line in favor of a faster second call time further back in the horses's past performance.

However. what I have found was although those techniques were better at predicting the actual pace of race
and which horse or horses would be setting that pace,
it would tend to setting faster fulcrum paces and
consequently eliminating too many legitimate contenders."


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[borodin]

Bill V: Thanks for the information. Last-line-only is Pizzolla's belief, but do you yourself do the same thing differently, or does the demonstrated way work out well?

[Bill V.]

Bill V: Thanks for the information. Last-line-only is Pizzolla's belief, but do you yourself do the same thing differently, or does the demonstrated way work out well?

Hi yes I use the last line only..


Here is a race I just happen to be going over, when i saw your post

Here are the last lines for ever horse in the race
Race 5 June 5 2013 1 Mile CL 7.5 N2 - L
Last line for every horse

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Who qualifies ? Who comes from the fastest pace of race
and is less than 5 bl at the second call and finish ?

H1 Yes POR 48.1 and 114.3
H2 Yes POR 47.8 and 113.7
H3 No too far back at second call
H4 scratch
H5 No too far back at finish
H6 No too far back at finish
H7 Yes POR 49.8 and 115.3
H8 Na too far back at second call and finish

So Horse 2 with a time of 47.8 and 113.7 has faced the fastest pace of race from the last line
Now is this race atypically fast ?
I would say yest to being fast but #2 has run plus races against a 113.7
so I will set the Fulcrum at 113.7

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Here is the results The fulcrum horse had no other early or EP runners in the race It was able to go wire to wire at a slow 114 POR

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[Segwin]

Bill V: Thanks for the information. Last-line-only is Pizzolla's belief, but do you yourself do the same thing differently, or does the demonstrated way work out well?

Reread Bills post above yours. Pizzolla makes it abundantly clear that its last line only. I'm going through his chapter again in Pace Makes The Race.

[borodin]

Segwin: I know how Pizzolla explains it. I wanted to know if Bill made any modifications or exceptions to it.

Bill: thanks for the example.

[Jeebs]

What if horses 3 & 5 in your example (coming out of sprints) were close to the pace (5 lengths or less)? How would you approach that? Esp. since #5's 3rd call is 59.2?

[Jeebs]

Bump

[Bill V.]

Thanks for the bump

I'm sorry I just did not see your question.


Horse 5 and 6 were sprinters but they do not qualify
based on not being competitive at the second call and final time
I will make the fulcrum in my mind maybe a little faster if there are
sprinters stretching out