Why On Earth

[Segwin]

Are they still running this gal :mad:

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

Without knowing anything about the connections for her I would take a guess,
that this is a small barn ?. She took forever to find the winner circle
against maiden claimers but earned some money with a few in the money finishes. She finally won at a MC 16 routing.
The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level. That would be about a $8000 claimer.
Now after the maiden win what did the connections do with this
still young filly ? They put it against Stater Optional s probably because they wanted to see what she could do. But not risk losing her.
After figuring out how to win this is a test.
That did not go well. They probably realize she is not much. Then they start
her in the claiming races at $20000. After two tries its clear she is not
anything great so now they finally drop her to the CL $8000 level
which is probably her level if she is not hurt ?

Bill

[Segwin]

Good morning Bill.

The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level.

I never knew that - thanks.

Her past three races are dismal. Looks like she could use a few weeks at the beach with a nice pail of oats and some sun screen.

[DontSayDont]

Hi Terry

Without knowing anything about the connections for her I would take a guess,
that this is a small barn ?. She took forever to find the winner circle
against maiden claimers but earned some money with a few in the money finishes. She finally won at a MC 16 routing.
The rule of thumb is a maiden claimer winner probably finds its winning level at 1/2 the maiden claiming level. That would be about a $8000 claimer.
Now after the maiden win what did the connections do with this
still young filly ? They put it against Stater Optional s probably because they wanted to see what she could do. But not risk losing her.
After figuring out how to win this is a test.
That did not go well. They probably realize she is not much. Then they start
her in the claiming races at $20000. After two tries its clear she is not
anything great so now they finally drop her to the CL $8000 level
which is probably her level if she is not hurt ?

Bill
Bill, I agree with everything you said here. Noticed that they raised her one class to Md16000 from Md12500 on the day of her Mdn win. Not seeing or knowing much about sire lines, looks like this horse may take to an off track, or liked the stretch out. Her career is, 1 win in 6 tries at this S/D. Not horrible.

Trainer is winning at 17% and in $$ 50% if I recall correctly. Not all that bad.

Now comes my question, how do you get a line to use on a horse like this. We agree that C8000 might just be the level for her to be competitive but she does not have a + or (+) line in her last three.

The 4th race back, her win, was on a sloppy track. Use this as it was a win and today's race is for non-winners of 2 lifetime? Or go back 89 days to her second place finish at Crc? She ran + races at 2 different tracks while routing, so much of the question is, how will she handle Tampa's surface?

I'd like to see how she compares to others in this race, but would probably want a bit of a price. If this is from today's card, I have not downloaded any info. today.

Ray

[DontSayDont]

The pace of 8.0 races seem to be faster than she cares for. At 8.3 and 8.5 she only faced pace of 49.2 - 1:14.5 - 1:47.9(Final Time) in one and 49.3 - 1:15.5 - 1:47.3(Final time) in the other. Bit of an oddity in running almost the same final times at the 2 distances. I think it is normally about 2 to 2.5seconds more for the 8.5f event.

For C8000 n2L at Tampa this year, 8.2 and 8.5 distances the average pace's have been 49.1 - 1:14.8 - 1:44.2(Final Time) for 8.2 furlongs and 50.3.-1:15.4 - 1:47.4(Final Time) at 8.5f (small sample). There have not been any 8.3 furlong races at this class.

From this is doesn't look like the average pace will be a detriment.

Ray

[Bill V.]

Hi Ray

I'm glad I don't bet races like this anymore

Here are my thoughts on horse 1 and the others

Horse 1 No line looking at line 4 I see its a maiden win
I see the off track. Is this line comparable ? Yes if its a dry track but
the horse ran very differently than its other races. The race is atypical
based on Total Energy, TPR and its early /late energy distribution.
In Pace Makes the Race they write about that no matter how bad the last line is it should show something. Line 1 shows a good first fraction but a wild early Early Late energy balance and a 71 epr that is 9
lengths behind the fulcrum. I would not use a line for this horse.

Horse 2 No line. This horse has no comparable plus races in 90 days
Its all turf

Horse 3 off for over 200 days No line

Horse 4 and 5 scratched

Horse 6 Line 1 Its a recent Plus + race Same distance and surface and competition level .

Horse 7 Line 4 I will excuse line wrong distance ( sprint )
Line 2 is terrible but I will excuse it as its first try over the tampa track, Line 3 is excused because of the 1 turn LRL distance

So I only have lines for two horses and horse 7 is a shaky decision

No wonder the 6 wen't off at 3/5 LOL

Bill

36689

[Segwin]

Well #1, Jill's Image finished 4th which is A LOT better than I thought she was going to do.

[Bill V.]

Well #1, Jill's Image finished 4th which is A LOT better than I thought she was going to do.

Hi Terry

:confused:

The problem is and this is also in Pace Makes The Race

Finishing 4th in a 5 horse field is not the same as in a full field.

This is why in modeling its important to know the field size as well as the position.

36690

[Segwin]

Hi Terry

:confused:

The problem is and this is also in Pace Makes The Race

Finishing 4th in a 5 horse field is not the same as in a full field.

This is why in modeling its important to know the field size as well as the position.

36690

Good point Bill.

I had originally thought she'd still be on the track tomorrow morning. ;)

[sureshotlink]

Perhaps Jaime ness can magically turn her for around...:D

[Segwin]

Perhaps Jaime ness can magically turn her for around...:D

Funny you should mention.

He had the #7 in the 6th at Tampa yesterday. While being wary about betting I chose to bet against him.

Below are the pps of the horse. I really didn't think he could spin this one around.

Oh well....... :rolleyes:

[Bill V.]

Im typing this from my phone from work :rolleyes:
So I can't tell
Can you tell me what horse 7s Epr and lpr totals were for line 1
just line 1.
its the early and late phase 1 readouts on the TPR
screen

thanks Bill

[Segwin]

Will do Bill. I will setup thecast tomorrow.

[Segwin]

Is this the screen you wanted Bill?

[Bill V.]

Thanks Terry

I can figure the Phase 1 numbers. But I need to see how the DTV adjusts
them. Line one was a little more early than I guessed but it is a solid tpr

Bill

[Segwin]

Thanks Terry

I can figure the Phase 1 numbers. But I need to see how the DTV adjusts
them. Line one was a little more early than I guessed but it is a solid tpr

Bill

Hi Bill,

Explain to me what you're looking at/for & how it relates.

Thanks.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

The reason I asked about the last line phase 1 numbers ?
I use them as a form factor. You seemed to be wondering about how
Jamie Ness could get this one to win.

I saw line 1 as the first race back after a 210 day layoff
That is 7 months, Line 1 seemed to be a even effort.
It ran 6 6 6 5 and until the end stayed even with the POR
plus it has the excuse of its first try at Tampa in the current meet.

In Pace Makes The Race one of the positive form factors is an even balance
between the EPR and LPR in a even effort.

When you posted the pp's to #7 Costa De Oro, I did the phase numbers in my head. As I wrote, I only had your PP's to go by. I wanted to see what RDSS
gave as far as phase 1 numbers for line 1.

I see it gave line 1 a 87.9 EPR and a 84.8 LPR and that is a pretty good balance but as I said it is a little bit toward early (+3.1)

So Line 1 shows me ...
After a 7 month layoff and the first try at Tampa to be a even effort.
Now with a drop in class to 8000 Horse 7 put it together.

Using your lines I see horse 7 was within 5 points on TPR of the highest
ranked contenders.

That is what i was looking for.

One of the basics of Phase 1 is to always rate the last line.

Thanks
Bill

[Segwin]

I have another favor to ask: I'm not sure what to read into the POH & POR numbers.

How do you use POH & POR in your handicapping?

Tnxs

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

I just use the figures as a additional tool.
I check the projected pace of race and then base my thoughts on a contender based on how it ran against that projected pace in the past.

Its not that big a part of my handicapping. I might be able to eliminate a horse once in awhile but usually a bad horse has bad lines anyway.

Bill