riding the favorites coat tails

[tompkins]

How often do you come across a race that has a single standout (these are often maidens) that tends to make you NOT bet the contest? There is enough randomness in racing that you can utilize this ONE entry to garner a bigger prize. The 7th at Philly today was such a race: the overwhelming choice (#1) did not get out too well but ran on for third. The logical horses finished all around it however leading to a trifecta that one could have tapped into for only a few dollars keying the obvious choice as a single in the first, second and third slots to the other choices for a payoff of $593.20 for a relatively small investment of ( 1-(236) –(236), (236) -1-(236), (236)-(236)-1)

7th race - Philadelphia Park - April 11, 2006


Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Cindarullah Jose Luis Flores 26.20 12.20 4.20
3 Sign Post Hiram G. Rivera 20.20 6.00
1 Gold for Nina Frankie Pennington 2.10
Also ran: 6 - Lost the Signal , 4 - Winlocs Articchill , 5 - Keeping Faith , 8 - Plain N Fancy , 7 - Laura K

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Pick 3 2-3-2 (3 correct) 105.60
$2 Exacta 2-3 223.00
$2 Trifecta 2-3-1 593.20

Let the coat-tails of a big favorite open the chance for randomness to pay you for your effort.

[uncleroughy]

Great helpful analysis post! I was there and as usual goofed on this race. I keyed the fav in the race with 348 etc so now I am checking the race over again (using Val II)to see how I overlooked the winner #2. Thanks Tompkins for your insight.

[tompkins]

the key in using the 2 here was the e/late balance screen.

[admin]

Not bad
The key could be the 8 line 3 is the best of the last 3 but is it the line to use ?

The favorite #1 went off at .50/1
Very easy to bypass both of these and go to tier 3 and 4

[admin]

This screen is based on the lines I used and these are my top 5 contenders
Tompkins what do you think of this ??
two biggest early big Exacta

[admin]

Horse 1

[admin]

Horse 2 Here is your winner

[admin]

Horse 3

[admin]

Here is the problem
is race 3 the best line?

[admin]

Next #4

[admin]

Here is # 5

[admin]

Horse 6

[admin]

Seven in the 7th

[tompkins]

This screen is based on the lines I used and these are my top 5 contenders
Tompkins what do you think of this ??
two biggest early big Exacta

at that distance and at that track, it is KEY

[tompkins]

number 8 was my FIRST throw out as it was plainly GOING OFF FORM as the word processor reminded me of. Losing ground to progressively slower pace.

[tompkins]

anytime you see an animal that is this much a dyed in the wool speed merchant, you wil usually find the highest SPEED RATING when they had less pace pressure and their e/l was lower. Don't be fooled into using, what is an AYTPICAL line. Just look at the e/l numbers and when you see a 10 race best Speed rating, it is VERY OFTEN found along with a line with atypically EASY early fractions. Just about all the HIGHER speed rating of the above horse happened with the FIRST fractions were SLOWER.....

[tompkins]

5th race - Aqueduct - April 12, 2006

11 Draw Play Jose L. Rivera, Jr. 81.00 17.20 14.20
1 Wild Card Deck Charles C. Lopez 2.90 2.80
9 Colonial Inca Norberto Arroyo, Jr. 4.20

another example...if you picked the ATYPICAL sustained line (the last) this one figures NO where, BUT if you use the more typical lines where it ran to the front as it USUALLY does, then you might consider this one.

[tompkins]

adding the horse's pp's here to show what I mean. Look at the last line as not NORMAL for this one...going back and looking at the way it NORMALLY compete, then this one figures

[tompkins]

the early/late screen shows that this one had an advantage to this field POSITIONALLY.

[jms62]

LOL... That's the beauty of doing these things after the fact. You can choose the right combination of pacelines to show anything.... Best of the last 3 at comp distance/ competitive at same running style and there are at least 3 others higher ranked E/L... Pullleze...

[tompkins]

temporal mania!

I did not say I wagered on this but found it in a review. If people don't want to learn from review, well, that's kind of stupid

[tompkins]

LOL... That's the beauty of doing these things after the fact. You can choose the right combination of pacelines to show anything.... Best of the last 3 at comp distance/ competitive at same running style and there are at least 3 others higher ranked E/L... Pullleze...
there is NO rule about best of last three never was