E/L graph

[Captain]

Let me introduce myself as an old time Sartin Methodology member. I have been away for many years. For the past several weeks I have been lurking in the background studying all that I have missed over the years and reading the post that have been on this website. Maybe someone can help me with a question I have.
On the E/L graph there are the nice little bars. I understand the graph fine with one exception. The nice little numbers within the bars, tell me big numbers and little numbers ok big or small what? I have no idea what they mean. I know that they are weighted but I have looked everywhere to find out what they mean. Grrr I can't seem to find that out. I must have skimmed over it one night when I was tired.

[Bill V.]

Hello Captain

I will answer this in a way that may help other too

The EL graph is showing many things in RDSS
But this will help folks who see the Early late graph n older programs too.

The TPR screen and or the E/L difference graph shows.
1. How the horse used its energy Early or Late.
It shows its difference pace line or against each horse in analysis in a stick /bar graph. The bars are color coded.
Red for early and blue for late .
2. It shows the horses actual EPR and LPR - Phase 1 readouts in the actual number the horse earns . based on the formula from Pace Makes The Race .
This little number is the difference between the EPR
and the LPR

In RDSS the lines are RED for Early
and Blue for Late.
In the older classic programs the
lines point right for early and left for late. The number are the difference between the EPR and the LPR - Early or Late pace

Here is an example
#3 Crazy Cousin John

In this example I am showing CCJ's pace lines
The red lines show the difference
if the EP is greater than the LP.
The blue lines show the difference if the LP is greater than the EP.

Crazy Cousin has a larger Early Pace
readouts than a Late Pace readout in
9 out of its 10 races shown,

Only in race # 6 has CCJ run with
a 2.2 larger LP readout than its EP readout
It ran a 83.2 Early and a 2.2 larger 85.4 late pace readout
so that is why you see a blue 2.2.

To review
The line shows early or late.
The number shows the difference between the EP and LP readouts ,
Red is Early
Blue is Late
The numbers reflect the difference between the two readouts

[Captain]

A Ha! Thank you Bill! I am most thankful in two separate ways. First you gave me an answer to my question that was driving me mad. Second I have no memory of ever reading that explanation before. Whew- I thought I was caught in a loooong senior moment!

[Rivegauche610]

See? Two years later this thread solved a mystery for me, too. Thanks for it.

[Tim Y]

WITHOUT A DOUBT, this unique measure that the Sartin Methodology has of the e/l lead this handicapper to more wins than ANY other aspect in the entire armamentarium available.

[mick]

armamentarium - a collection of resources available for a certain purpose.

What a great word! Can't wait to use it.

[Tim Y]

I subscribe to A Word a Day so that my vocabulary will not shrink over time. Vocabulary is like a muscle: it takes exercise to keep it healthy.

First...Ever think that there SHOULD be words for various thing we encounter in our lives? PETRICHOR ....The smell that occurs directly after it starts to rain. Coined by two geologists who noted that certain oils leech out from rocks but soon that fragrance disappears with the dilution of all the rain water.

Ultracrepidarian....A handy word to use when talking to rookies

[mick]

Giving opinions beyond one's area of expertise. Excellent. As an RDSS beginner, may I never be guilty of that, especially in this cyber colony of the 'wagercapping' erudite.

[delayjf]

WITHOUT A DOUBT, this unique measure that the Sartin Methodology has of the e/l lead this handicapper to more wins than ANY other aspect in the entire armamentarium available.

What do you look for in this graft that leads you to your winners - a horse with a contrarian pace running style or pace advantage early or late?

[Tim Y]

I set standards for what WON at each distance, at each track based upon the e/l number of INCOMING lines used.

That way I knew that a 6.0f at INNER AQU the range of winners was from +6 to +12, at Oaklawn it was lower (+2 to +8) etc. The numbers remained close all season and I could easily tell if there was any speed bias extant, by the higher numbers scoring on particular stretches. You have to save a bunch of them to make sure the range is accurate. The off track usually UPPED these number ranges around 25% higher.

One thing I always wanted to add to the Sartin programs was the ability to overlay the SPECIFIC e/l range for each distance, each track from the database I had gleaned over time (i.e make a different color across the bottom of the e/l range screen that was specific for the track you were following that day) to the bottom of that e/l graph. I just had to go to my database and recall the range. Rule of thumb: IF I had to decide between a more positive or negative e/l, I would usually default to the former.

The e/l is the weighted difference between the 2nd call and final fraction: the more positive means the former had much higher velocity than the latter...Turf contests should just about be all negative numbers (within reason) as the third fraction velocities most always are a bit faster than the 2nd call velocities.

[Ted Craven]

One thing I always wanted to add to the Sartin programs was the ability to overlay the SPECIFIC e/l range for each distance, each track from the database I had gleaned over time (i.e make a different color across the bottom of the e/l range screen that was specific for the track you were following that day) to the bottom of that e/l graph. I just had to go to my database and recall the range. Rule of thumb: IF I had to decide between a more positive or negative e/l, I would usually default to the former.


You have mentioned this before. Consider it added to the list of RDSS V2.1 additions! User specified range point, by track, surface, distance or distance structure, stored and retrieved, displayed, updated, edited, etc. Of course, individual race matchup may trump a long term model - but that's on the user.

Ted

[delayjf]

Tim Y,

Thanks for the in dept answer, lots of food for thought there.

[Bill Lyster]

I agree with Tim. In working with my final contenders on the Rx screen I often review the line chosen for each horse to 1) see that the line is within the range of each horses ITM performances and importantly, within the range of when the horse wins and 2) that its generally in the range of all winning performances for the distance. If it fails either criteria its not to win for me.

I recall in The Hat's Matchup manual a race where he preliminarilly accepted the horse as a contender only to discard it in the final analysis because the 'qualifying race' did not look right. Jim never really said what the actual basis was and it wasn't until I worked out the horses e/l history that I saw the horse had tried to run early, a +e/l, when all its good races had a decided -e/l value. The Hat did it in his mind!!!

Anyway knowing your track's E/L limits is a good thing to know.

[Tim Y]

Since the E/L is another way to relate how much early there is to final fraction. one could THEORETICALLY substitute other expressions of this and probably get the same result: % median, or deceleration (third fraction ratio to 2nd call)

[1retired]

Tim

Are you still around? Would you be willing to discuss winners obtained using the Earluy/Late Difference Graph?

1 retired

[Ted Craven]

Tim Y reached out to me on this topic and I invited him to rejoin P&C to answer if he wanted to.

I think the main points he had to make (and he made them repeatedly over the years) was to know the range of E/L balance which could win for a given race/track/distance. If you keep a model of this figure, it serves as a useful filter to weed out non-contenders who otherwise might appear capable from other races, though not in today's context. Bill Lyster has made this case regularly over the years as well.

Ted

[Tim Y]

Finally got logged in. I will review what has been posted already and then begin the SAGA of the e/l numbers which I first used to identify IF an early bias was active or not

[Ted Craven]

Welcome back Tim!


Ted

[Tim Y]

I tried to post a long entry but it would not show up. I''ll try again later. QUESTIONS??

OVERALL I think most here understand it is a range you are looking to constantly UPDATR