Is This line a + (+) or 0

[Bill V.]

Here is a older female
The race was from xxxx (for those who will just go to the result chart ) :)
I would like your opinions on the last pace line The race was from Parx
Is it a plus pace line ?
Is it a plus within a zero ?
Is it a zero ?

** by last I mean line 1

Lets discuss this ..

Bill

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[mowens33]

Bill, here are my thoughts:

Running in a rout she needs to be early, from the comment she got a slow start and got rushed and was in contention to the 2nd call.(a decent form indicator) But looking at the past performance she looks better going short. If she was in a sprint today I may consider this a plus/zero race, but in this case I consider it a zero.

Thanks for the encouragement and kind words from my previous post!!

Mike

[Mr.Pagine]

Bill,

Great exercise - thanks.

To finish back by 19 in a 7,500 CL is a no-no
I like the first quarter of the last race and that is all.

In my opinion, I would look elsewhere.

Happy Punting!!

[Earl J]

I think the answer is 0.

But...is it a bounce race?

The second race looks like a lifetime best.


Earl J

[Mark]

How many people would judge a 48.6 gate work as evidence of good health and fitness?
What about a gate work of 1:14 and change 21 days ago?
I perceive this last race as and indication that the horse is ready to run well and given a similar paced race today most likely a wire to wire winner if there are no other Early horses in the field. I'd like her even better if there were no good Pressers in the field.
This is a young lightly raced horse that appears to have enough racing to be fit since the long layoff. While not according to the definitions of the +, 0 or (0), I would give her my own +. She is 5yo now. Half her PPs are from her 2yo year. The most recent 5 are interrupted by two 70+ day layoffs and all but her last were sprints. Look at the fractions of her second back. For the level those are pretty quick and the final time is excellent for the level. I'd say she was beautifully placed in her last race but didn't break.

[DontSayDont]

I would give her an excuse in her latest but then have to make her a non-contender as I would have to go to far back to get a usable line. Also not sure she can run with 7500 claimers. She broke her maiden for Mc10k and then won a 5kn2L. I think she may need another drop to the 5k level before winning.

Ray

[Bill V.]

I want to thank you all for this discussion Really, from my gut this is what I feel.
I appreciate the work that you have done without the help of knowing the results.


I will post my comments in a little bit but what I have read so far is very positive

any more others ?

Thanks
Bill

[Bill V.]

In the mean time I want you to take note of two things

If you notice I blocked out the some information but I left in the post position
Post 4

another thing look at the trouble line "broke slow"


"The last line is the best indication of a horses current form and ability"
Tom Brohamer

[tom]

I'll go for a 0.
Look at pace line #8 - broke 7th, rushed up, then faded, but he did not fall apart in the stretch - he only lost another couple of lengths.
Last race, he kept losing ground.

Now, I am sure after that analysis, he won by a pole! :D

[Bill V.]

Hi Tom

Line 8 was as a 2 year old and also on a 1 turn mile at Laurel

At this point lets not worry about what happened in this race win or lose
Lets look close at the last line :)

Bill

[shoeless]

Hi Bill,

Plus within a zero

[Bill V.]

My thoughts ...

Technically Its a plus within a zero.. But it is a powerful
positive form indicator and a great spot play

First this is from the pace line manual.

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Here is a clean copy of La Reine's Wager pp's
Line 1 is Reines Wagers first try at a two turn route. Both of the Laurel
8 furlong races are 1 turn routes beside missing lots of time throughout her career she has been sprinting.

38246


Line 1 is its first 2 turn route. LaReine is a EP. She can pass horses.

She usually breaks well. In its last 5 sprints its beaten lengths at the second call are a up close 3.5, 3.6, 2, 2. and 2.1

Now about line 1. They stretch her out to 1 mile ( two turns at Parx )
but she has no experience.

The horse is in post 1 BUT look at its comment "Broke Slow"

What does Tom Brohamer say about trouble lines

"the horse still must show something "

It breaks slow, but rushes up and passes 5 horses
and gets within 1/2 a length of the leader.
Here is the thing. Besides the traffic it faced by breaking slow It does this going into and through the first turn !! by the first call its a contender.

It used too much energy early because its inexperience routing,
So it fades badly. RDSS or any Sartin program will not rate this line well because of the bad 3rd fraction.

However this is a (+) paceline

Here is a diagram of Parx racetrack. I have marked where the first and second call are and where La Reine was at those calls.
Also look how soon the first turn comes up in a mile race.
So LaRiene had all of out side horses coming over as best they could as to not get hung out wide.

38243

There are other positives
This trouble start was 8 days after its return form a layoff
Each race since the layoff, they are going longer. After the bad finish they come back at the same class CL7.5 N3-L but now the go to 8.3 furlongs.

On its next race it was in post 4 at the same class
and they come right back in 3 weeks. This race was in Feb so 3 weeks
is pretty good return with inclement weather and cancellations these low level claiming races fill up fast.

Here is the chart of the last line race

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anyway in its next race La Reine was in post 4. It had very little pressure to its inside and won and paid $34.60

Thanks
Bill

[viikinki]

Bill V, excellent analysis! I learned a couple of good pointers.

[mowens33]

Bill, here are my thoughts:

Running in a rout she needs to be early, from the comment she got a slow start and got rushed and was in contention to the 2nd call.(a decent form indicator) But looking at the past performance she looks better going short. If she was in a sprint today I may consider this a plus/zero race, but in this case I consider it a zero.

Thanks for the encouragement and kind words from my previous post!!

Mike

Bill, she was bet down 2.6/1, looks like a lot of people did consider the last line as a plus. The slow start again killed her chances, If she had a good break and stayed on the reel and was able to relax she would of had a decent chance. But I'm still not convinced she could get this distance at his level.
Great Post!
Mike

[Bill V.]

Hi Mike

Thanks for looking at my race, The horse was bet down to 2.60 off the Jan25 7 furlong race.*** On Feb 2 as La Reine was about to race. This is what the public ( RDSS users ) saw

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The Feb 2 line is a (+). it was in the lead or up close in the first 3 calls, It beat half the field. Its dropping in class level from CL10 N3-L to CL 7500 N3-L It comes right back in 8 days
This is a positive move . So it was bet to 2.60 from a 3.5/1 morning line


That chart I show in the above post is the Feb 23 race in which it showed the early speed but fade pattern



***This is a Parx thing . 7 furlong horses win 1 mile races very often


Good Skill
Bill

[Jeebs]

I would say a zero line. He was losing both lengths and position at the 2nd call, which was the 1/4 pole in that mile race. Stretch call and finish, it is safe to say that the rider was no longer trying, hence why the final segments are worse than they appear. Regardless, his race was over heading to the 2nd call. If he had been racing evenly at that call, then maybe I go for a +O. In this case, a O line seems appropriate.

Here is a older female
The race was from xxxx (for those who will just go to the result chart ) :)
I would like your opinions on the last pace line The race was from Parx
Is it a plus pace line ?
Is it a plus within a zero ?
Is it a zero ?

** by last I mean line 1

Lets discuss this ..

Bill

38228

[Bill V.]

I would give her an excuse in her latest but then have to make her a non-contender as I would have to go to far back to get a usable line. Also not sure she can run with 7500 claimers. She broke her maiden for Mc10k and then won a 5kn2L. I think she may need another drop to the 5k level before winning.

Ray


Hello Ray

Actually If they drop her to $5000.
She better go elsewhere to run. For females Parx only runs strait/open $5000 claimers or non winners of 1 race in 6 months. at the mile distance

In the same time frame from my database I have 15 CL7.5N3-L races
I have 10 races for the $5000 claimer levels at 1 mile

Looking at the pace of race for CL 5000/ CL5000 N1-6M and CL7500 N3-L for 1 mile females

$5000 N1-6M 48.4 113.5 141.6
$5000 Open 48.4 113.6 140.4
$7500 N3-L 48.9 114.7 142.3

The difference is probably because the $5000 level allows better horses to drop in and win, All the horses in the CL 7.5 N3-L races naturally
have just two wins. The race is restricted to a certain level.

Here are the number of wins for the winning horses of my 10
$5000 level races as they enter the race.
6, 8, 2, 4, 4, 4, 6, 11, 5, 4

Good Skill
Bill V.

[DontSayDont]

Bill,

I didn't know that. Good information, thank you! I have almost 2 years of result file information stored, hoping to maybe use Prx as my winter time track but haven't done any research on the information I have.

Ray

[Speed Figure]

Why aren't these +/0 things already programmed into the software?

[Ryan.p.coli]

Speed Figure-

They kind of are. Anytime you see 1c or 2c position in color, they were in the top 3- so you know they were up close. It's tough to codify that into software as everyone's interpretation of a + (+) or - performance is different. I'm reading a book about form cycles by William Scott and his interpretation for a (+) is position at the stretch call. This is slightly different than some of the Sartin Manual Bill showed above.

There is no "Right" or "Wrong" answer with this distinction, just a difference in method as to how one personally grades a horse. Some people prefer a more conservative approach, others perfer a more liberal approach. It's up to you to figure out what works with your handicapping and what your records show.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Ryan

To speed figures. Other factors Ted would have to program are
the pace of race pars and class structures for every track.

As Tom Brohamer says "don't follow these up close guidelines religiously'
A horse dropping in class or which ran against a very fast pace of race
may appear to be a zero but in reality may be a (+) or possibly a +

Just like Ted'd auto paceline settings He has added features to aid in the +
(+) and o notations. Its a help. Its up to the user to make some calls on their own.
At least for the last pace line I feel its best to give it your full attention.

Good Skill
Bill

[carlous21]

Here is a older female
The race was from xxxx (for those who will just go to the result chart ) :)
I would like your opinions on the last pace line The race was from Parx
Is it a plus pace line ?
Is it a plus within a zero ?
Is it a zero ?

** by last I mean line 1

Lets discuss this ..

Bill

38228
i think the last pace line is positive as far as energy is concern. he didnt use his positive energy last race. Ans is positive but then again i am having doubt. what is the answer? i am curious.:D

[carlous21]

Hi Bill

thanks for the advise on pace line I will pay attention.