Handicapping 101

[shoeless]

Im starting this thread because I feel some of us are in such a big hurry to download or manually input data that we dont step back first and look over the race.This is from the 8th today at SA hopefully Bill or Richie can put up the pp's my computer skills suck.

8TH-SA-6FUR-25,000 CLAIMER 4 AND UP

1 LAST RACE WON AT 5.5 FUR FOR 16,000
2 LAST RACE RAN 3RD FOR 32K,RACE BEFORE RAN 3RD 25K
3 NON CONTENDER
4 LAST RACE RAN 4TH FOR 50000,WON 4 BACK AT HOL FOR 40,000
5 NON CONTENDER
6 WON LAST 25,000
7-LAST RAN 7 FINISHED 8TH 32K,TIME BEFORE RAN 3RD FOR 40K
8-LAST RAN 2ND FOR 25K AT 1 MILE,RACE BEFORE WON FOR 20K
9-LAST RAN 5TH FOR 32 AFTER 6WK LAY,BEFORE RAN 3RD 32000-ONLY
RUN 3 TIMES THIS YEAR 5 TIMES LAST


Just by looking at the class of the race you can tell the 6&8 are the only 2 horses who have done something lately at this level and are sound.The other horses are either dropping or going up class

1-going up 2 classes
2-cant even run 2nd for 25
4-finishes 4th for 50k only loses by 2 3\4 why drop to 25k
7-last race bad race before that runs 3rd for 40k trainer keeps dropping
9-last finishes 5th for 32 only run 8 times since last year

I think sometimes it's better first to go over the race then just start to enter data.I hope others will post things they will do before entering pacelines.I forgot the 8 won paying 7.80 and the 6 ran 2nd for a 59.00 ex. Jeff

[RichieP]

Go head Jeff. first here are the race conditions

[RichieP]

Horse 1

[RichieP]

Horse 2

[RichieP]

Horse 3

[RichieP]

Horse 4

[RichieP]

Horse 5

[RichieP]

Horse 6

[RichieP]

Horse 7

[RichieP]

Horse 8

[RichieP]

Horse 9

[shoeless]

Richie,Thanks a bunch that will make it clearer for people to see what Im talking about.Sometimes I think we get so involved with the numbers and rankings we dont sit back and smell the coffee first.Jeff

[Dap Daddi]

Shoeless:

Nice job. Well done between Richie and you!

[RichieP]

Richie,Thanks a bunch that will make it clearer for people to see what Im talking about.Sometimes I think we get so involved with the numbers and rankings we dont sit back and smell the coffee first.Jeff

Jeff
I know you really liked the winner strongly before the race ran. I see you do this a lot. Identify only a few contenders on the win end. Definitely a strenght of yours big bro.

Richie:)

[shoeless]

Richie,Actually my numbers came up like yours 1&8 and I bet them both to win but really it was only a 1 horse bet which does come up from time to time.I think we just get so involved in the readouts of the program that sometimes a little handicapping logic will prevail.In this case it would have steered you as well towards the exacta.Jeff

[shoeless]

I can see why the old Pirco members kept harping on putting in the right contenders.By leaving in Crowned Dancer he was almost 1 in everything.But because of the suspicious drop in class after a decent race you would have thrown him out.By doing this you had the top 3 finishers in the race for a 57ex and 280 tri.This is a big reason you should FIRST look at the conditions in the race especially in claiming races.Jeff

[RichieP]

I can see why the old Pirco members kept harping on putting in the right contenders.By leaving in Crowned Dancer he was almost 1 in everything.But because of the suspicious drop in class after a decent race you would have thrown him out.By doing this you had the top 3 finishers in the race for a 57ex and 280 tri.This is a big reason you should FIRST look at the conditions in the race especially in claiming races.Jeff

Jeff
Gotta give u respect here cause u are right.

There really is such a marked difference between the teachings of guidelines
starting around 1992-93 it's remarkable.

It really is 2 totally different methodologies big brother.

Best part is: it is ALL GOOD!

I have been doing a LOT of concentrated reading the last 2 days on the methodology BEFORE I started with it ( 1991). I am totally tied up with it in a good way I believe. JIm Bradshaw is really so fascinating to read about it's crazy. This man is unconscious. I am dead serious. Track coach- super intelligent- Dad was a highly respected member of the Cherokee Nation.

Doc too! They would travel around to tracks all over the country - run some form of live seminars ( sometimes at tracks they had NEVER capped) and work cards LIVE and WIN.

know what I was doing in the late 70's and 80's? Dropping like 200 grand on the harness horses. No BS man.

BIG regret I have is never meeting the Doc and Hat in person.

Damn

Thanx Jeff :)
Richie

[shoeless]

Richie,Thanks to you as well.Here is another example of class conditions this one is running tomorrow at CT in the 7th.This race is 6000 CLAIMING FOR HORSES WHO HAVENT WON A RACE IN 6 MONTHS[RACES FOR 4000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED].Notice his last race was for 4000 but it was against open company.So today instead of moving into a tougher race he is actually going into an easier one even though he is going up in class.It pays to look at the conditions of the race.Jeff

[RichieP]

Richie,Thanks to you as well.Here is another example of class conditions this one is running tomorrow at CT in the 7th.This race is 6000 CLAIMING FOR HORSES WHO HAVENT WON A RACE IN 6 MONTHS[RACES FOR 4000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED].Notice his last race was for 4000 but it was against open company.So today instead of moving into a tougher race he is actually going into an easier one even though he is going up in class.It pays to look at the conditions of the race.Jeff


Thanx big bro. Amazing cause I am reading about this very thing "conditions" right now.

hey good job on the screen shot too! Very nice

Richie

[RichieP]

Doc:
" In fields of 6 horses and less IGNORE all class issues and assume the horse will run to it's ability and behavioral patterns from a RECENT race".

Richie

[shoeless]

Richie,Did Doc say that when they had Pirco or after the group broke up?Like you said it's really two methodology's.The only thing Im trying to point out is you really cant go by who are the contenders by just total energy and line score.By doing this you are could be putting in false contenders which could screw up your readouts.Jeff

[admin]

Hi Jeff

I am one of the few that MUST use Total Energy
and Primary line score I know I'm a dinosuar
but I have to stand up and speak for those who
might just get more screwed up if we don't

A general knowleged about track class structures at tracks you wager is vital I learned to use the best of the last 3 pacelines at a comperable
distance/surface and competition level

I agree that just taking the best Speed rating blindly from the last 3 races
and then hiding based on Total Energy and PLS is going to hurt me
unless I enter the best line for horses that I feel a contenders

My handicapping is totaley done in the pace line selection

GS
Bill

[shoeless]

Hi Bill,First place Im the one that's a dinosaur around here still using old programs and mainstream ideas.Secondly there is really no need to stand up for anything Im just posting my opinion.You have to play the races the best way for you,Im just suggesting an alternative.There is no right or wrong answer here,you sound like your taking it real personal and there is no need to do so.Jeff