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Lt1 Lt1 is offline

Grade 1

Visitor Messages

Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 10 of 29
  1. dadams6357
    12-24-2023 03:58 PM
    dadams6357
    Tim
    When you calculate what MED% you use for a race...how do you break it down?
    Do you just break it down by distance only?
    Or class distance?
    Or class distance surface?
    Or class distance surface sex age etc.
    I know its christmas Eve...ought to be thinking about other things than Racing?
    Thanks
    Don...
    Still working on it...
    When and if I hit the pick six I will send you your Xmas present...
    Dont hold your breath...
  2. dadams6357
    11-17-2023 10:57 PM
    dadams6357
    Tim
    In regards to brisnet Par vs horses spd...example Par for race is 95 and race is on Dirt at
    6f.
    Would you only consider horses spd that is run on dirt for comparison or would you
    consider all bris spds for horse regardless of distance and surface.??
    This is in regards to selecting contenders...been watching your video over and over.
    Thanks
    Don.
  3. dadams6357
    11-17-2023 09:12 PM
    dadams6357
    Tim
    Do to health problems have been away...question regarding Scott.

    Horses running within 21 days of today's race who have a 5-furlong workout in the last 14 days
    that earned a bullet or is at a very fast time (:59.4 or less in the East and Midwest and :58.4 or
    faster in Southern California.
    +
    Is that still 21 days or 45 days?
    Thanks
    Don
  4. dadams6357
    07-16-2023 09:26 PM
    dadams6357
    Tim
    This is in regards to MED%
    I noticed that there are different parameters in regards to ESP.
    L has a different % than s sp etc. i have enclosed a list based on gulf stream 8.3 POLY
    eg
    MED % ESP
    GP 66.00 L TO 67.00 L
    GP 67.10 S TO 67.70 S
    GP 67.80 SP TO 68.20 SP
    GP 68.70 EP
    69.50 E TO 72.00 E

    Did not have enough data on on E and EP
    Data was based on 50 available data points.
    It would seem to me if you have an L horse that runs a 67.80 you
    would throw him out???
    What is interesting it goes up in a consistent manner.

    I would of posted it but did not know where.
    Notice that the % goes up...so it would seem to me that one would have to use
    different MED% parameters based on the ESP??
    Let me know what you think...I used 2 different time periods so it would seem if you
    have like an L ESP It would have to be within the approprite parameters?
    Thanks
    Don.
  5. kmspokes
    05-05-2023 03:34 PM
    kmspokes
    Hi Lt, When I save my models I include the horses I hide. Is this the recommended way? I have not seen it mentioned anywhere, just assumed you should? But it would definitely affect your ranks for non hide winning horses.
    Thanks,
    Ken
  6. kmspokes
    04-25-2023 05:59 PM
    kmspokes
    Well that one did not work as planned, but still interested in your opinion on how to bet that race.
    Ken
  7. kmspokes
    04-25-2023 05:50 PM
    kmspokes
    HI Lt1,
    So I'm also playing Parx today, when I play Parx I make my picks and then compare to yours, you definitely have some insights I do not understand yet!! Using all the best info I have accumulated thru RDSS I came to the same horses you did. The 11 throws an interesting wrinkle as I try to hold my bet to $12 for exacta and I think 11 has a potential to win but only 2 factors with great support numbers. I'll probably do 8,11,2 with 8,11,2,3,7. trying to hold with the 4 factor theory. What I'm asking is how do you bet this type race ? Good luck and enjoy your experience, I smile often at your success !
    Thanks
    Ken
  8. dadams6357
    02-02-2023 10:57 PM
    dadams6357
    Tim (new yorks finest)
    There used to be a cartoon Mr. Wizard with the turtle...and when the turtle would get in
    trouble he would start screaming help me Mr. Wizard. Well I am that Turtle...need some feedback.
    You have stated on various post that you collect data for your models write information down. etc.
    I have a question do you find that your models are changing in a shorter time periods
    like weekly etc. Also do you consider class to be important...in other words do you
    view alll 8f turf races regardless if there MC or Stakes as running pretty much in a similiar fashion in regards to the variables in RDSS? Like 8f turf races all the same at a
    specified track.
    Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated Mr. Wizard.
    Thanks much
    The Turtle.
  9. cjmat
    09-28-2022 08:39 PM
    cjmat
    Follow every day, CONGRATS ON THE 2 DAY SWEEP MAY THE PRICES STAY WITH YOU.
    AN THANK YOU FOR WHAT KNOWLEDGE YOU DISPLAY AN GENEROUSLY GIVE
    cjmat
  10. barryt
    09-23-2022 02:36 PM
    barryt
    Hi Lt
    It’s part time follower of yours Barryt.
    R U planning on doing Parx Sept 24th if so I’d greatly appreciate it as I’m planning a virtual day at the races.

About Me

  • About Lt1
    Biography
    Joined the group in 1990. Have attended the races with a few current members.
    Location
    Valley Stream NY
    Occupation
    Retired from the NYPD after 34 yrs
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    Trust but verify

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  • Last Activity: 02-26-2024 09:34 PM
  • Join Date: 04-12-2012
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