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BJennet BJennet is offline

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  1. partsnut
    11-08-2011 12:19 PM
    Hi Bill,

    I had this one because I look for horses like this - a horse with one of the two highest speed figures in the field going off at 11-1. For me, a no-brainer.
    Recency is extremely overbet by the public. If you do a search on Dave Scwartz's posts, you can find his stats on this. The IV for recency is 1.00, which means that, for any given level of recency, horses win exactly their fair share of races. Thus it's a useless handicapping factor. But since the public believes in it, it's hugely negative ROI.

    Also higher-class grass horses coming off relatively long layoffs (6-9) months, are flat-bet positive ROI. A 2+-month layoff, as in this race, is nothing for a good grass horse. For the exact stats, I would take a look at Ken Massa's research on this subject, which is on the HTR site. All I know is that I've done very well betting this kind of horse.


    B Jennet
    I figured I'd write you personally and tell you that
    I appreciate your know knowledgeable response to my post.
    You make a lot of sense to me.
    I admire you're use of the impact numbers and you're diligent research.


    Bill H.


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