."First off no one is calling you a "liar".. Secondly one of the places you post is SartinAlums and we all know "Fredom of Speech" is not alive and well on that board especially when one is critical of the chosen ones. Thirdly drop the "Then Don't do it" crap because quite frankly it is juvenile...

You have an idea.. We are all looking for ideas that make us more profitable. You are not presenting it in a scientific way where it can be reproduced and verified. You refuse to do it realtime. You refuse to show us your models of its success rate..... In sprints I think you'll hit in the high 40%'s. Will this show a profit , considering all the chalk involved ? I don't know but I certainly have an opinion.. In routes it defies basic logic. A horse just has so much energy to burn in a race and burning it Early in a route will deplete the tank... All horses are not Ruffian.... You are presenting the exception as the rule just like Amway with benefit of the RESULT to allow for proper paceline selection...

I also haven't seen anyone call you a LIAR. I believe you have been inconsistent, disengenuous, at times incoherent, evasive and prone to attack when pressed for details, but I haven't seen anyone call you a liar.

Where was the third place you introduced these ideas? Maybe I can make more sense of them there.

Dick...

not here
 

Tompkins
I am very offended by your remark
And it also says a lot

I, and the two or three or four other gentleman who have replied to this thread, Have also been very patiently waiting for you to offer any more documentation of this method.

Everyone has been courteous and given you plenty of chances
By asking you either direct questions or
As is my case pointing out possible errors in your presentation
that could cause confusion
For you to accuse us of calling you a liar is just another fact that you can not show
any evidence of

What is said elsewhere I have no control over ..
If you read some where somebody say we are calling you a liar
That is your yes men loving up to you ....
either that or maybe its in your head

You take a very original road when you post your ideas That's fine..
However by taking the road you do run the risk of looking and acting like you are now

No body is calling you a liar
you are only giving some of us that impression
be presenting your argument in this way

GS
Bill

others note the same thing
 

FROM PACEADVANTAGE:
I have used what i call "a 2 race improvement" for quite a while (actually it's measured over the last 3 races not just 2), and it does point to many winners. Basicly I use the Bris E1, E2, LP figures. I look at the 2nd race back and if the E1 and E2 figures were higher than the 3rd race back but the LP was lower, he starts to get my attention. Then I look at his last race, if, in his last race, he declined in E1 and E2 but improved in LP, then I say he has improved at all 3 pace calls over his last 3 races and often he will run his best today. It works pretty often, although you have to look at those 3 races and factor in the time between races, trainer philosophy, race distances, etc. Works can verify the improvement, too.

Often, when a horse's E1 and E2 figures decline in his last race, the public will not support him because they have been drilled with the early speed thing so much that they don't notice that he has already improved that part of his game and now has finished strong, thus projecting signs of being ready for a very good, complete, performance now, especially if the pace today is a mild one. Because of the lack of support by the public he can go off as an overlay, sometimes a substantial one.

That's a nice concise description from Raybo. I understand what he's talking about. I also found this on PA from 46zilzal.

"I have been experimenting in what I call an "early filter" and it has done marvelously. I think, but cannot prove, that it finds improving early speed in horses a race or two before they show the balance of that improvement. Using TWO lines, I simply hide the "later" one (better move to the second call between them) and then only compare those that rank in the top 3-5 earlies.........
Usually use a second line that was CLOSE (usually last three) but does NOT limit to the same distance..............
I think it is hidden "improving early speed"

Another nice explanation, though it did take several messages. Is this what you are taliking about?

If so, you might have saved us all a whole lot of trouble by just laying it out, without all extraneous nonsense; the rapid fire cryptic phrases, tons of examples with no explanation and interminable lectures about our resistance to change. It sounds like something worth looking at to me.

Dick...

yup

this is an angle about looking for TRENDS and you need to look at several lines to PROJECT where a horse most likely will move today. Without looking a SEVERAL lines this angle is impossible.

night cap today at Aqueduct had a good example of this angle at a good price too.
9th race - Aqueduct - March 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Voryias 34.00 14.60 8.50
8 Shots 9.70 7.00
5 Netcong 8.20

adn BILL will be happy to know it was a PHILLY shipper as well

Today race 3 Santa Anita
 

Spec150
Led me to a $27.40 winner


4 Diamond Fury $27.40 8.60 $5.60
3 Wing Kai $3.00 $2.60
2 Savonarola $6.80

not on grass too!
 

7th race - Santa Anita Park - March 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Whata Soldier 15.60 8.20 5.00
5 Lock And Key (IRE) 7.60 4.80
3 Ulistnintome 2.40