PRX Race 3 4.2.13
 

Here is a race from PARX today that I thought was interesting. This is a race where running style (RS) collides with time. You will see what I mean as we move through the race.

I will post all the horses in the race first along with comments on each horse.
Before I go any further I just want to review my guidelines for picking contenders and pacelines since that is what this thread is about. I know many of you are already familiar with these guidelines, but I'll cover the material again anyway.

When I started this thread I did not have access to RDSS, so I used screen shots taken from the Follow Ups and the Paceline Manual. The purpose of the thread was to familiarize people with contender and paceline selecting as it was at the beginning of the methodology. To the original guidelines I added a couple of my own that came from much research through my database. Here they are.

I will be using the original methodology concept of using the last line “UNLESS” there is a valid reason to go back a line. The lines chosen will be “+” races or “(+)” races.
Continuing on with the original methodology, a line will NOT be given to every horse in the race. Instead, I will look at each horses PP’s and determine the contenders prior to giving them a line.
I will also run down the horses in each race so you can “get a feel” for how I arrived at the contenders and the lines used. If there are any “special” comments, they will be included.
I can tell you right now,any horse with a ML=>20/1 will NOT get a line or be considered a contender.
Also, no horse that has been OFF for more than 90 days will be considered a contender.
Also, no horse will receive a line that is more than 90 days old.

Before I go any further, let me just mention the conditions for this race. It is a $7,500 claiming race for NW26MX (non winners of 2 races in the last 6 months) Please keep these conditions in mind.

Now the horses. The 1A was scratched.


#1 shows nothing but sprint races. By the guidelines, this horse is dismissed.

Attachment 33971

#2 ran a dull race in its' last race, but that was against "OPEN" company. In its' race 2 back it beat $7,500 clm, NW16MX. Today's race is the logical next step up, a NW26MX. I'll use the line 2 back.

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#3 horse's last 5 races covering the last 113 days are all sprints. Again, by the guidelines, this horse will be dismissed.

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#4 horse's last race was at today's track, today's surface and at today's distance. Although it was at a much higher level, it was a really bad race. The two races prior to that were sprint races. This horse will be dismissed.

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#5 won it's last race just 24 days ago. The thing to notice here is that last race was for the same $7,500 claiming level and at a NW16MX condition. Today's the horse is moving to the next very logical class level and condition, $7,500 claiming with a NW26MX. I'll use the last line.

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The last two horses
 

#6 is another horse in this field that beat $7,500 claimers 2 back and then faced "OPEN" claimers in its' last race. Like the other horse in today's race, today this horse is moving to its' next logical level, a $7,500 claimer with a NW26MX condition. I'll use line 2.

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#7 won its' last race and I will use that line, however, notice that it beat NW3L. In that race it was not facing the same quality of horses it will face today. On top of that, take notice that this horse is just 3 for 52 LIFETIME!! Not a real good record and hardly a record that would suggest it would win back to back races.

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Ok, so what was interesting about this race?

Let's look at the screen shots. Here is the "original" showing the contenders and the lines used for them. I think it is clear that the #6 horse is the EARLY horse in the race. Look at the lines used for each contender. Which horse stands out as the early horse? Then notice the ""RS" and Quirin speed points. All of this points to the #6 as the EARLY horse. In addition, I would suggest that you look at the PP's for all the horses in the race with particular attention to the first call for each horse. Can you find any horse in the race that is earlier than the #6?
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Now we move on the the TPR screen and look what we see. #6 ranks 3RD for EPR! But notice there is no early horse by the "E/L" standard. In fact, the #6, who appears to be the early horse, has the biggest blue stick! What are we to make of this?

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The segments screen is just as bad if not worse. it shows the #6 trailing at F1. However, it also shows the #6 overpowering the field by the second call.

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The BL/BL screen shows the #6 "on top".

Although the screen shots show 4 contenders, there are really only 3, since the #7 is really not a viable betting opportunity as I mentioned when reviewing that horse.

I don't think there are many of you that would not end up with the#6 as one of your two horses to bet.

1 - it is on top on the BL/BL
2 - if you trust your instincts, you know this horse will take the lead in this race and it is unlikely it will get caught.

This race is a case of "lines" showing a false race because of the times.
Early horses are always early horses. They either get the lead and perform well or they don't get the lead and fade back into the pack. The faster first fraction times shown by the horses in this race that are "ote" will not propel those horses to the lead. They are still "ote" horses.

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Here's the chart of the race. The #6 wins and pays a very nice $20.20.

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Can you explain the guideline rule regarding all sprint pp's in a route race, I'm not familar with it and I often include sprinters, I would have included the #1 horse, 2nd race back at 7F, thanks.

Phase 1
 

Thanks FTL
This is a great race to keep in all our lesson notebooks.

I agree with your pacelines,

looking at the race using phase 1 ( the tpr screen )
you wrote

Now we move on the the TPR screen and look what we see. #6 ranks 3RD for EPR!
But notice there is no early horse by the "E/L" standard. In fact, the #6, who appears to be the early horse,
has the biggest blue stick! What are we to make of this?

In your screen shot we see the 6 2 5 and 7 all within 1 point of each other
In Phase 1 each full point of EPR, FFR (LPR) or TPR (CPR) = equals 1 length
Phase 1 is velocity based, So what we see developing is the 4 contenders within
1 length of each other at the 3/4 mile call. This tight group will head for home
We know the 6 will be all out to be the leader of this group.
As followers of Phase 1 know the beauty of the numbers is that you can visualize
the race and the positions of the contenders.
In your screen shot we have the golden egg
We have a Early horse with one of the the best EPR's ( less than 1 length) and also the best FFR ( LPR ) rating

Now lets look at the race we have the 6 2 7 and 5 all within 1 length of each other as they enter the stretch.
But as apposed to the cluster at the 2nd call (3/4) look at the advantage
the 6 has in the 3rd fraction ! FFR - LPR

The reason the 6 is the biggest blue stick is because it has a much better
FFR - LPR than the other contenders in the race
The difference between the EPR number and the LPR number is what the sticks
are telling us

Here is the race from the result charts Once again we see the winner
who went wire to wire as running with late energy EPR 72 FFR 80
Its EPR is 8 points less than its LPR so next time this horse runs its PP
line will show another blue stick with a -8


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Thanks for the post FTL. I won this race also but didn't have it as cleanly as you. Bet it because of odds. Still getting use to RDSS. Your explanations are very good.

FTL

When looking at the #6, I may have elected to use line 3. It seems to me
that the 2nd race back may have been somewhat atypical, as the first call time was the slowest in it's entire pp's.

Much like forgiving a race which a horse may have come across a too rapid early pace, would you consider going further back in this particular race?

Would position early be more important then the posted time?

I want to thank you for all your contributions, and find them to be highly beneficial.

John

Sure, when you are looking for a line, you are looking for a line that is on the same surface and at same approximate distance.
Route races are route races and sprint races are sprint races. The times are different, the points of call are different, and not all horse have the same running style in both sprints and routes.
You mentioned using a 7 furlong race. Ok. A 7 furlong race runs out of a chute on the backstretch. The horses run approximately 4 furlongs before encountering a turn.
By contrast, the first thing the horses in an 8 furlong race encounter after breaking from the gate is a turn. In fact, the first call of an 8 furlong race is run around the first turn. Not exactly the same, wouldn't you agree?
Does this mean that a horse with only sprint races can never win a route race? Absolutely not!
Let me put it this way. You're walking along a road and it is on your mind that you need a needle. You walk right up to a pile of needles laying in the middle of the road. Off the road is a haystack. It has a sign on it that says, "there is one needle in this haystack". Is it really that important to find the needle in the haystack or will one of the needles in plain sight work just as well?

At the beginning of this thread there are some sample races taken from the Follow Ups and/or Paceline Manual. These posts primarily center on labeling each horse for its' running style and also choosing a line. I would encourage you to not only read these posts, but also go to the library on this sight and read the Paceline Manual. I believe what you are looking for starts on page 17.

Hope this helps and good luck to you.

Your observation is correct. The first call time in line 2 is the slowest in the PP's.
If you chose line 3 for the reason you mentioned, it would certainly be understandable, however, I think your reasoning is a step above the basics.

Earlier in this thread, I posted a screen shot that came from a Follow Up where "Doc" said...

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In every race I have reviewed on this site, I have used the same basics as I used in this race, because it is the concept of the basics that I am trying make clear. I am speaking to a group, an ever changing group, not an individual. One of the most important aspects of contender selection and line selection is consistency. On that basis, I would answer your question "no" I would not go back on this horse.

"The posted time". I take that to mean the time taken from the line chosen. If that is true, then my answer is "yes", early position is more important. The time from one race is incidental, whereas a look at the horse's "body of work" (all its' PP's) provides a much clearer picture of what can be expected from the horse today.
Again, earlier in this thread I posted an example race from the Follow Ups where the idea was to find the winner without a computer. The idea was to find the winner based on "Running Style". It was very much a race like this one, where there was just one early horse. Where there is clearly only one early horse, that horse will make the lead in whatever time it needs to run in order to be in front, probably in a slower time than what might be anticipated.

FTL, thank you for the insight regarding my question.