Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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- - How I use RDSS2 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10465)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 103952)

Hi guys
I capped this race today and this what I did. My win contenders were the 1 entry,4 &5
for horse #1 I used line 3 line 1 too high a class,line2 wrong dist
1a line 3 line1 too high class,and 1st from l/o l2 7f more then 1f todays dist
#4 l2 better adj sr then lin1 and preferred by program
#5 line 4 l1 sly sealed trk 1st from lo, l4 better adj sr then lines 2 &3 and is same class and dist as today. I note its from 198 days ago, but I don't confine myself to the 90 day guideline and it gives the horse its' best chance to win something that Marion Jones and Vic Paiermo stressed at the 93 Vegas seminar. I passed the race due to low payoffs. The 4 won paying $4,$2.40,$2.10, the 1 was 2nd $2.40 $2.20 the 5 was 3rd $2.80. The ex paid $10.40,$1 tri paid $13.60
Tim

Hi Tim

I boxed the 4 and 1 with the 5 who I saw probably as not a great win candidate
but who had a good chance to be in the money . Like I pointed out
11 places but only 4 wins The 5 ran third but the 1 and 4 finished together

I lost .80 :o

Attachment 40714

Attachment 40713

Hi Bill
I just saw no value in the race. Considering that the top 2 betting choices only complete the ex 26% of the time I just didn't think it was worth the risk. I did look at the dd payoffs with r4 but didn't like anything there either. That came back a big $14.80.

NOTE: My comments are for the race in post #1 not race in post # 4. I figured this race to be 6 F, the 3 can benefit by the cutback in distance. I would use line #1 for the 3 because L2 is my,L3 & 4 are past my guidelines of 1 F and L5 is at a different trk. but mainly too far back. Using line 1 with -14 variant is consistent with horses 4,5,& 7 as they all had a -14 and from the same track.
Not sure if I would keep those lines for those horses but on the info. so far that would be my line for the 3. The 3 has shown he can rate some in his chart but has problems finishing. the cut back can help him get a win. The 3 is an improving horse in both Total energy and TPR in last race. Whatever his problems were he seems to be over it. I'll admit that after the # 7 this becomes a tuff race for a second contender. I'll talk about V/DC in the AM.
Mitch44

Well Bill V. no one else has commented or posted their thoughts to the race in comment #1 of your post so I'll sum up my thoughts on it. Note: This is from your line selection and based only on the information available in your limited post.

The 5 & 6 are a toss for low velocity. You indicated the 1 as a NTL and if so he won't get it against this bunch, out. That leaves us the 2,7,4 & 3 as contenders.

The 2 is number one in Total Energy, TPR and V/DC with his 0.0 rating. He is my number one pick. The next horse on V?DC is 3.0 a really nice gap and an indication of the 2 has greater reserve energy.

The addition of V/DC to the TPR screen in RDSS 2 will greatly help RDSS 2 users in separating horses. V/DC was born out of the original Entropy program,later modified by the "Doc" into Valadator, and is an underrated factor that more users need to pay attention to.

After the number 2 there are three horses that are tied (7,4 & 3) on TPR and total energy. In a previous post I stated that when horses are tied I choose the one with the better 3rd Fr because it indicates more reserve energy that can be used in the match up of the ones that are tied and the majority of the time when they exert that they'll defeat the other. Does it work every time? Hell no,nothing does. But by doing this your putting the percentages on your side. You'll have to keep records to find this out on your own or just except it.

The 7 & 3 lines are taking from 6F and todays dis. is 5.5F while the 4 is from 5.5F Although tied in TPR horses that cut back in dis. generally can increase their TPR and those stretching our generally decrease their TPR. The reason for this is the deceleration factor and where it takes place, cutting back its less likely to decelerate as much as in a longer race. Same reason why smaller tracks card so many 5 & 5.5 F races is because those horses hit the brick wall at 6F at major tracks but don't hit that wall at shorter dis.'s.
Based on that my choices are 2-7-3. Also in answer to Bills ? on the pace line of the 3 I like that he is an improving horses. I also would have used other stuff in RDSS to break these ties but used only what Bill V. posted.

Now if you look at V/DC to separate these tied horses (7,4 & 3) it clearly separates these 3 horses ranking them 7-3-4 but I would caution the user against this and I didn't use it here. The 7 has a 3.0 and the 3 has a 3.3. Just how much dam difference is that? I understand the inner working of V/DC and I have absolutely no idea except to say their close and would resort to other readouts to solve this problem. V/DC readouts can show gaps and be extremely close. This presents a problem for my small brain and all I can say is there is a slight difference which isn't good enough for me to risk $$$ on it. I would like to see these numbers go from percent to a scale of 100 such as are the numbers in TPR. Everyone can easily discern the difference between a 93 and a 91 EPR etc. I'm sure they can be easily converted as it been done before in previous programs. I would also like to see that for the Feet Per Second ratings in RDSS 2 . I've done the FPS on my own and its not complicated.

As the"The Hat" would say "you have to use what you have" but I'm still a dreamer.
Final pick 2-7-3-4 in that order.

Mitch44

race 2 Saturday 10/14 MU contest race

Hi Mitch

The race was this past Saturdays Match Up contest race

Attachment 40715

It was a CL 7500 Non winner 4 life for 3+ F M

Attachment 40716

You did a great job piecing together your look based on limited information

I won this race and got a win in the contest,
My post for the contest looked like this
I really was late getting it in on time. I had to post something
quickly, as part f the contest ,we have to explain our picks,
I did not have time to explain my issues with horse 3 and 7
because they were loading in the gate as I was posting .

anyway here is what I posted

Attachment 40717

I will now post the PP's and my thoughts for each horse

Bill

Bill,
looking how you use RDSS I see 6 factors plus the sticks which are the differences between EPR and FFR. I have a question for you.....
do you know how many times the race winner was rank 1 in each of the factors, or for that matter ranked 2, or 3 or 4.

The 2 was a solid bet

For my second win bet I just went with the 10/1 ML horse #4
I just had too many doubts about the 3 horses habit of weak LPR's
and I felt the 7 would be too far back especially if the 5 went crazy early again

Attachment 40725

Results

Attachment 40726

Nice win and ex. Bill. Having more information now the # 7 is an improving horse. I would have used line 2 for the 5 but it still wouldn't have made any difference or make it a contender. And on the 1 I would have used L 4 because L 1 is counter to its ESP and probably a result of a slow POR, that L 4 actually makes it even worst on TPR .(low velocity) and more of a throw-out. Good job Bill.

Mitch44