Hi Jeebs:

Bill is correct as to how Ted does it.


Also one can scratch the horse or as I do I just downgrade the horse mentally. E.g in this case from # two on RX3 to # 3 or 4. In betting two horses I have downgraded it to a non win bet. I prefer to do it this way as the horse may still be a contender for place if I'm betting the EX. and if its hidden you may forget about it as a contender for the EX.


If your not betting EX's I would recommend Ted's way (making it a secondary contender)because you may forget that you downgraded this horse especially if playing multiple races.


This is one of those things that the individual must decide depending on your wagering of the race or personal preference. But be aware if playing EX. or multiple races.


Mitch44

Bill Lister:


Your correct about Holendorfer as he's 21% 1st off the claim, 13 % drop off claims.


This # 6 horse's S/D says it can run on dirt.

The 6 could be kept as a contender or not. This is the beauty of two horse betting, either way you get the winner.
Mitch44

FTL guidelines
 

Hi Mitch

Yes I was not clear what I meant. I posted the results for my total spreadsheet
wish is now over 1700 races

In my total races spreadsheet, Using the best of last 3 auto selected by RDSS which includes all races from every track every day
and every type race, I get the winner in the top 4 RX 78% of the time

In my FTL spreadsheet which is only a few days old and only has 31 races
I get the winner in my top 4 RX3 90%

The FTL spreadsheet is based on picking pace lines and contenders myself.
These are all races I actually bet . These are not fetched from result charts after the fact.
There are no maiden races. I only bet races from Tampa, Gulfstream Fairgrounds Oaklawn AQU 7 (horse fields only) Parx , Santa Anita and just a few from Golden Gate
In these races, every horse in the race must have at least 3 pace lines.
Exept from Santa Anita. I will do the race if there is only 1 horse who comes in from non North America lines.

Attachment 45667

Thanks for the clarification Bill.


As a true comparison to FTL procedure any survey must be treated the same for an accurate comparison. If the survey for RX3 was to eliminate maidens and you were to verify the line chosen as in the FTL survey I'm sure the stat of 78% for RX 3 would climb. But I know you're aware of this. Additionally FTL guidelines for pace line selection verses your line picking as stated in post # 13 isn't the same.


For a down & dirty do nothing approach that doesn't have 50 or so rules RX3 is very impressive. Ted has advanced RDSS to greater heights.


Keep driving on Bill,
Mitch44

thank you Mitch
 

.


Hi Mitch

I honed down my 1700 + race results down to not include any maiden races
In addition, I only included the same group of tracks, that are in my FTL results
AQU, PRX, GP, TB, OP, FG, SA and GG

From 1700 It now comes down to 814 races


Actually RX3 went down a percentage to 77%
Mitch, what are the 50 or so rules you mention?
You are correct best of the last three does a nice job too, getting 77% results

Thanks

Bill

Attachment 45671

Hi Bill,

Let me start with this, not that it matters in line selection or contender selection. This is a “Waiver” Claiming race. (see result chart) You’ll have no problem identifying the horse that meets the criteria.



Here is my rundown of the field.

#1 – last line – it is a “+” race so no need to go further. In its’ PP’s it shows a win (twice) for $8,000 claiming. It also shows a win in a starter allowance for horses than have started for a claiming price of $8,000.
#2 – no line - the last two races were at today’s class level or a step below and the horse showed nothing. Previous achievements are meaningless.
#3 – No line – the horse is a throwout. It hasn’t raced in a year. It also has just 2 lifetimes wins and should be looking for an easier condition. Previous achievements are meaningless.
#4 – line 2 – this is the obvious choice for a line. It is at today’s class level, distance and surface. All other lines are turf. Although on the turf, this horse has shown it can beat open $40,000 claimers and Optional $40,000 with a “NW$1X” so the only question is how it will perform on dirt. The race 2 back answers that question.
#5 – last line – it is a “+” line and a win. This is a horse who has had problems in the past. In race 10 it beat open $40,000 claimers. Off of that race it was on the shelf for 260 days (almost 9 months). After its’ return, they searched for a level where it was able to win. They found it $20,000 open claiming. It then won for open $16,000 claiming and open $20,000.
#6 – last line – it is the only line in the last 90 days and is at today’s distance. This is another horse with problems. It has had 10 races in the last 411 days. That’s a race every 41 days, on average. Even for a router, which horses generally have more time between races than sprinters, that is a lot. It indicates to me the horse may have some physical problems and needs the time between races. It beat open $40,000 claimers 411 days ago. No wins since. The fact that it was claimed from its’ last race for $40,000 and is running today for $25,000 is a red flag.

So, I have 4 contenders. All of them using the same lines you chose as you stated in post #13. YOU picked them, not RDSS.
I read your note about the #6 horse and I am in agreement with you, however, this exercise is just about picking contenders and lines...a starting point. All other decisions about the contenders come after this.

I don’t expect anyone else to evaluate horses in a race the same way as I do.
If you are using the Rx feature in RDSS and it is working for you, then stay with it. (how you should handle using RDSS to separate your contenders is something you will have to work with until you are comfortable) Frankly, I don’t know what the three Rx features are. It’s been 4 or 5 years since Ted gave me access to RDSS so I could post races with it. Obviously, the Rx feature came after that.

You know from all my posts that I only look at and evaluate the horses I get as contenders. Again, if your approach works for you, then keep doing it.

As an example, Neil S doesn’t evaluate a race the same way as I do, yet, in the past few weeks he has told us of three races where he won approximately #2,000 on less than a $40 investment. Do you think I would tell him to do something different? NOT ON YOUR LIFE! SUCCESS IS SUCCESS!!

OK, the racing surface.
Dirt – this is about as straight forward as you can get

Turf – this, too, is about as straight forward as you can get

Artificial – whomever came up with this idea should be shot! Horses naturally run on dirt and grass, not some artificial surface, nevertheless, now we have to deal with it.

There are those who substitute grass for artificial surfaces and artificial surfaces for grass like they are the same thing. They are not. Like dirt and grass they are two different surfaces.

In my lifetime I have seen horses that were being readied for the slaughter house saved from that demise by a last ditch effort to try the horse on grass. In the case of one particular horse, the result was the horse becoming a grass champion.

I have heard the argument and read the discussions that horses distribute their energy on an artificial surface in a similar way as they do on grass. I’m not going to get into that discussion here, simply because it is not how I reach my determination as to where artificial surfaces “fit”.
Some horses love the feel of dirt and hate the feel of grass. The opposite is also true. At this point in time I’m not sure if there is any solid information regarding artificial surfaces and how horses feel about those, especially in a comparison to dirt or grass.

Let me put it this way. Take off your shoes and socks and go run on dirt. Then go run on grass. Then go run on some artificial surface. Let me know which one you liked best. Which one felt best on your feet? Did the artificial surface feel like grass?

Grass is grass and dirt is dirt. Whatever an artificial surface may be... it ain’t grass.

Therefore, like it or not, I will use a line from an artificial surface in dirt races, but not in grass races.


One last thing.
You started by saying your results are very different from mine from the standpoint of the percentage of winners in the top 4.
I’ll just say this. You must first HAVE 4 in order to have a “TOP 4”. YOU know from all the races I have posted that many times I do not have 4 contenders. And even where I have more than 4 contenders, I don’t have a “TOP 4”. I just have whatever number of contenders there are. I don’t rank contenders by some final ranking number. I just evaluate the contenders I have.

Is this the Line I want to use

Previous achievements are meaningless

NOT ON YOUR LIFE! SUCCESS IS SUCCESS!

Nice to see these snips of wisdom

Hello Bill,
What I'm saying is: 1 if a member was to verify lines to insure they concur with the line as you are doing with your FTL procedures the results would be quite different for RX3, 2. there are those that have so many rules that it hinders good analysis time and there are better tools such as RX3 for contenders and even pace lines to get the winner in the top 4 a very high percentage of the time. And two horse betters are in the game with a high percentage for success.


What makes Sartin & RDSS so great is that everyone has their own believes and are free to decide for their selves as to how to use and employ it. Even when presented with facts there are those who are always contrarian thinkers and refuse to accept them.
Hope you slaughter them today Bill,
Mitch44

Bill

Nice presentation of the race

Jeff

Jeff
 

Hey Jeff

Thank you . I see Laurel is listed as fast today, Parx must have canceled ?
If you see anything, I can review the race with you.

Good Skill
Bill