Most likely that was the case but since then with training just about everyday he'll be much fitter so I don't see it as a problem. In this race one never knowns what they'll do. As an example none have ever seen a crowd that will be there for the derby to include the in field and the noise they make. Could it have an effect? Maybe?


Hopefully their mind is on running at that time. These trainers have been running a few that do this on the inside of horses in their training to force them to stay straight. Particularly Pletcher. Magnum Moon is another that does this, also trained by Pletcher. That forces them to maintain a straight course. It may just be immaturity also. In the race the jock will be aware of this and if they can, will try to take a route inside for their stretch run if it won't cost them ground to get it, that'll let other horses force it in to maintain a straight course.


All I can say is that they all are running under the same exact conditions and we can't worry about what we don't know or may happen. The conditions are equal to all. Hopefully the horses we bet that day have the temperament to handle everything thrown their way.


Wishing good luck tleusin,
Mitch44

Incredible Job - Thank You Mitch44
 

Nice write-up, and I know this Derby, will be one for the ages.

I do not look at Mendelssohn as a European, as his sire is Scat Daddy, and the majority of his family are all from North America.

You did a great job in covering Mendelssohn in your write up - much appreciated.

Happy Punting!
Jon

Do you believe?
 

RDSS USERS:

Are you buying the adjusted SR of 95 for Vino rosso from the wood memorial?

Inquiring minds want to know

thank you,

Paul link

Paul,
I am going to see how My Miss Lily runs in the Oaks. She ran on the -17 variant at AQU, the same as Vino Rosso and that line makes her very sustained and 2nd on TPR to the 14. I will adjust my KD analysis accordingly after the Oaks.

Personally, I like Midnight Bisou and Rayya, who has been on or near the lead in all of her recent starts and finished 2nd to Mendelsohn. And it was not the only time she ran vs. males. She has only run vs females in 2 of her 5 races.

Yes I am Paul :)

sureshotlink:


I think it pretty accurate. The TPR for Bris & RDSS is a difference of 4 lengths. That could be many things, he did go 4 wide so that could account for some of that 4 diff.


Mitch44

Thanks Jon.


Mitch44

Much appreciate the feedback colleagues.

Good idea bill.L

Blessings,

Paul

Lily in the Oaks (way back and no big move) ran two sprints earning 74-77 adjusted SRs then an 80 ASR in the route prior to the AQU race that was -17 variant. Variants in the four races she ran are 0-(-12)-(-4)-(-17).

Vino Rosso ran 4 routes 77 w/+9 variant; 93 w/-17 variant; 80 w/ -4 variant; and 95 w/-17 variant. he had no apparent excuse in the Tam race 80/(-4) race so are we on an upward trend 77-80 or 93-95 with high negative variants.

I think tomorrows race will run fast early and Vino won't be able to keep up. I think he could improve upon the 77-80 to mid 80s.

The filly's races went from 80-88, a 10% apparent improvement. VR's races show a 18.75% improvement from 80 to 95. I am going to say no tomorrow.

Hi all
Can anyone tell me where I can find the OAKS/DERBY double payoffs?
Thanks folks!
PapaJohn