Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Races of Interest (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=76)

- - Parx #8 10-7 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11873)

Quote:

Originally Posted by navyvet1994 (Post 117850)

Good call Bill

I played and hit the pick 3 Thanks Navyvet for the race :)

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This race was a very nice teaching race. Hopefully those who viewed this thread observed that there is more to handicapping a race then blindly accepting the program readouts. Thanks for posting it Navy.
Tim

Good Play Bill. Glad I could play. I called today my final exam. I would have hit 5 races but would have bet 3 as exactas. 3 races I did not like. It was a great day I'll be in for the money next week and per everyone's suggestion I will start slow. 1 maybe 2 tracks tops and for now weekends only. Are there any Handicaps left this year?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 117854)

Tim I agree

Here are the PP's if anybody wants to add their opinions
It would be very welcome.

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last two races- look at shift in energy exertions

Winning horse had 2 month freshening, then
Look at the shift in energy exertions in last two races leading up to today's race

Last race- Horse chased against a very fast early pace fractions
Race after freshening- horse ran late

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Glad that you out of Hospital, Bill

Bill,

Happy that you are back at the track....:)

Best of health to you......

Take Care

Congratulations, Bill. That was a good winner. Surprised that it paid that much, but I'm glad it did for you.

navyvet, let me follow up on the point I made yesterday. Drosselmagic would have been worth a small win or win/place bet at 30-1 or maybe even 20-1. A horse doesn't need much going for it when the potential payoff is large. However, he went off at 12-1 and would not have been worth a bet at those odds.

Drosselmagic is a sprinter stretching out for the second time and had shown some early speed in his last race. Maybe he catches a soft pace, gets an easy lead and keeps going. As it turned out, he was hung wide on the clubhouse turn, had to challenge a brisk second fraction and faded to a distant fifth.

Bill and Tim both had it exactly right. Bill singled the winner in his Pick 3 and Tim "wagercapped" the race, hiding/ignoring the odds-on favorite and playing two other contenders.

Still, when RDSS shows you a big-odds horse with some "color in its corollaries," so to speak, sit up and take a closer look. The Follow Ups are replete with Doc Sartin making that point. And that's what you did. Good on you.