#6 Bernstein (place horse) – same answer re line 2. I know TP poly projects too fast sometimes, but if you must use it to get a route for comparison, might as well use the best.

#10 Pletchie – line 4 is within the most recent 3 turf lines, and is a better running line than line 5 (which is technically a better Primary line score); also look at the lengths ahead for line 4 (perhaps RDSS shows it better): the horse fought all the way for the win, an indicator of expending more energy in that fight than velocity alone might indicate; thus I feel line 4 is his best line, or at least a line consistently chosen with how other horses’ lines were chosen

The other lines were the same. You will notice that the BL/BL and Primary Line Score (from the BL/BL screen) are in precise finish order, and Total Energy also ranked the 3 finishers in top 3. If you use these lines in Spec160, like RDSS, you get a much more satisfactory result (line score differences with so many horses due to 1 rank differences in several factors, due to rounding differences between the 2 software):

Using the above lines here is what HTR came up with in the MaxVel Module. Variant 2 option (raw times). :

what does this mean? "TP poly projects too fast sometimes"
 

Bill and Marty,
Thanks for your great posts in reference to handicapping this race. Can you explain what "TP poly" means? I have no clue about these abbreviations. Thanks

It has been observed that (at least) 2 Polytrack surface tracks TP (Turfway Park) and KEE (Keeneland) seem to record final times which are noticeably faster than other dirt tracks, so when you use pacelines from those tracks in today’s race, those lines can tend to make the horse look too fast, despite the Inter Track Variant supplied by TrackMaster (and embedded in the Raw Speed Rating) which is supposed to equalize track speed differences. (I made a similar comment regarding TP lines in the RDSS forum Tampa Tuesday 3 thread re TAM 02/06 Race #1). In Speculator, you can slow down the final and incremental times of pacelines on the manual edit screen by entering a positive or negative number of tenths of seconds. This will naturally also be in RDSS, for use when required.

Just enter a single positive or negative number in the MAN column and it will be distributed over the final and incremental times. Experiment a bit, but be cautious and check your results. For example, with TP and KEE, see what slowing down the final time 2-3 seconds does.

Ted

Bill would you be kind enough to post your Energy and PRL step by step reasoning for picking your lines? Ted's approach to me with Preceptor is pretty straightforward, but I would like to see your other ways of arriving at the same result just for reference. In other races the Perceptor might not work well but your approach might come to the rescue. Thanks

Great explanation Ted. Thank you much. Perhaps TrackMaster can update their calculations sometimes soon for these tracks. I'll send them and email and see what they have to say.

Racer,

Good luck with that:eek:! Meanwhile, we probably have what we need to stay ahead of Equibase/TrackMaster's ITV updates just by handicapping and comparing projections to actual results. Then use either the 'Manual' adjust or the 'Mental' adjust.

(If you find yourself disagreeing with projections from other tracks, in RDSS, there is a way to save such a customized time adjustment, and reuse it thereafter, i.e. FROM a track/surface/distance TO a group of tracks/surface/distance).

Ted

One thing you guys might do is go ahead and tell us the results. I always have to take the time to look them up. Just a thought...