Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Val2006 Race 0325 Philly Freedom

Re: Philadelphia Freedom

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1>Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by sdahl
A couple of questions about this race. You were using a projected second call of 111.8. Is this equalized or raw. I am not sure because i see you looking at the equalized lines but i saw faster second call times .Do you find it easier just projecting the second call.
Also on your line selections, what are you looking for.
Races that are within a couple of ticks at the second call or finish in the race or where the race was run.
Do you use the pace line selector and see what the program likes.
I hope that is not to many questions.
Stan

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Hello Stan
Thanks for asking about the race
what I do is probably not right but it works
I hate to talk about it because I don't want to
mess up what the Match Up is teaching.
I use the adjusted times I see because I
don't know what or how to adjust? Does that
make sense? I just use what I see

I know that the race starts at the gate and the
first call is important But I don't understand it.
So till I do I figure the second call projected time only

All I do is kind of like I was making a PBS
number

I look for what Pizzola calls a fulcrum but I probably am doing it wrong

I look for the fastest 2nd call from the last
line only of any horse that ran the same distance
same track within 30 days that finshed well
(a good race) = W P S less than 4 lenghts
I use the second call from this horse as my projected second call
It works very well I am usually very close when I check the results

Here is what I saw

Horse 1 No from LRL bad race 37days ago
Horse 2 Perfect 111.8 same track distance
less than 30 days good race
Horse 3 No 35 days 8.3 distance
Horse 4 12 days but 8.3 and a bad race
Horse 5 Ok track and disance are perfect
same as horse 2 111.8
Horse 6 Better time 110.6 but at 8.3 PHA
If no horse ran at 8.0 I would have used
this 110.6
Horse 7 No Sprinter Adjusted times are good
but it was a bad race

horse 8 No 35 days ago 8.3 distance
and a bad race

So this race worked out
I had 2 horse to use # 2 and #5
If I don't have a fit, I use as close to the distance as I can. The 6 would have been it with the 110.6
call

I figured 111.8 the actual time was 112.0

Hope this helps

For your second question .....

I use the best of the last 3 Speed ratings. I try to use same distance
and surface and look at the race type I try to only use good races
and use the APV CR numbers to help me decide about lines
If a horse has poor numbers compared to the other horses on APV and CR
I use the last line if its less than 7.5 BL and now I use the
Projected 2nd call time to see how the horse runs against this number
and sometimes I us a line with a slower speed rating because of it

I try to eliminate some horses based on the APV and CR
and 2nd call times as well as just slow horses
Thats how I get to screen 3
then I hide horses based on Total Energy and Primary line score

I use the APV and CR again when I pick 2 of my top 3 or 4
horses on BL BL actually I have a cool example of that from last night
at mountianeer I bet my tier 3 and 4 horse and won the race
The winner was # 4 and paid 8.80
I will show that race as soon as I get home I have to get to work
here is a screen shot for now

Here is a screen shot from race 9 last night from Mountaineer.
The 8 was a returning winner with only 53.7 APV
The 9 was a router off a layoff and 4 - 0 - 0 - 0 in sprints
I bet the 2 and the 4
tier 3 and 4 and won $8.80 with # 4

Thanks stan i hope I helped
Bill
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