Hi Bob,Would you please show an example of doing that?Thanks Jeff

Jeff
 

Hi Jeff.

I will use the last race as an example, even though i missed the exacta, but
you can get an idea of what i mean.

my contenders in race 9 were 1-3-8-9
3 and 9 were closest to the required median energy for the distance.

my " 2 keys " would be 3 and 9. If i had more than 2 horses that fit
the median energy requirements, i would "key" with the 2 highest odds
horses. Depending on the odds, and how deep i want to get into a race,

exacta = 3-9 boxed with other contenders. Trifectas = 2 key horses with
the rest of the contenders. The same goes for the Superfecta.

The one RULE in all of this is : my first bet is a Win wager on my 2 key horses
before any exotic wagers are placed. In all cases, the odds must provide value.

BobC:)

Bob,Thanks for sharing.Jeff

What program do you use to keep profiles of what the current best median energy is for a distance? Also what program do you use to determine whether today's horse fits the energy requirement and is it based on 1 representative pace line or a mixture of pace lines?

Thanks.

Jim

PS...Always make the win bet! You did hammer that home in the Work Horse supplemental manual. :)

JimG
 

Hello JimG.

I use Trackmaster datafiles for my handicapping. Most of the software used on this site will produce median energy numbers. I pick the most common distances at a track. I check the results everyday and record the median energy of the Winner. A total of 50 to 100 races with at least 25 to 30 matches will create a useable profile.

After accumulating enough races and results, i remove all of the extremely high and low medians (aberants) and all like types. This is the method i developed many years ago. There are upper and lower limits to the median numbers. PLUS .15 high and Minus .15 low are considered the same.
(point one five percent)

When comparing the horses for final contention, i use the median energy from the paceline which qualified the horse. Sometime the median energy is
over or under the limits. It's ok, as long as they are the closest to the profile.

The most accurate of profiles will predictive in 3 to 4 races in a 9 race card
or more. The other race outcomes will be determined by the MATCH UP.
You can create a useable profile in a very short time using the most
common distances at a track. The larger tracks will provide the most
profiles as opposed to the small tracks with a limited number of horses and
fewer races at certain distances.

A properly created profile will build confidence in your final selections for
the Win slot. Extreme median energy numbers hi or low, are caused by
Lone Early Winners, Lone Late Winners, and Winners of PaceLess races.

Hope this helps,
BobC:)

Congratulations David!

Ted

bob:

do you then isolate these aberrant numbers by outcome type? e.g. lone late energy figures? are they predictive at all, or is it only by analysis that you select your late winner?

how do your median figures apply to grass?

tlt

Bob:

i have recently experienced the worst losing streak ever (i hit a hundred dollar horse and a 40 dollar horse to pretty much stay afloat) and i can't even begin to tell you the number of seconds by a whisker i had, and my selections arriving second and third at big odds. it has been a wonderful learning experience. i have learned to curse at loud volumes, throw things with outstanding accuracy, and kick my dog.

in keying your horses, do you determine which races are more likely to be resolved in a matchup ? or do you simply key your median horses in all those races without trying to select race-types?

tlt

Tlt
 

Please don't kick the dog lol

I find in races where the running styles are balanced, the profile is usually
predictive. 1e: there are a couple of early horses, 2 or more pressers, and
assorted late runners. Most of the time 1 early is faster than the other so it really doesn't exert too much pressure.

The MatchUp comes into play more times than not,when there are 2 or more early horses, an early presser or 2 ,and assorted presser sustained and sustained types.

This creates an unbalanced E/L issue, but is usually resolved by the Match Up.
BobC:)

TLt
 

I key my best profile horses in races i consider "balanced" These races can be narrowed down to 3 or 4 horses for WIN. I then select the 2 closest to the profile. If there are more than 2 close, i bet the 2 with the most value.

BobC:)