Thank you Richie....

Keeping of records is something I need to commit to doing. Thank you for your guidelines and the work that you are doing.

Pete (113 degrees yesterday)

Video
 

Hi Gang :)

Video is ready and runs 42 minutes. Long time cause the factor set is over 40 corollaries.
: http://www.SartinMethodology.com/med...r_Modeling.wmv

Enjoy,thanks for the good thoughts and best of luck/skill.

** Bill V's link to "Open Office" is tremendous help cause as he says it is FREE! Thanks Bill!**

"I bet him because of the corollaries" - Aline Best

great video.
Now, how about a program to extract the data from RDSS
to the Excell spreadsheet??
Tnx.

That's coming... (not this week). I think folks will likely choose to track factor models and wagering decisions right from within RDSS, though slice-n-dice exports to Excel (and other data formats) will be there.

Look for an update to RDSS sometime this week (V0.98.7) to enable that Pace of Race Velocity screen toggle Richie has been experimenting with. (I hope he makes another video showing some techniques of how he's been using it ;) )

Ted

Pace of Race / Pace of Horse
 

One simple yet pretty cool use of the Pace of Race tab coming this week:

This is the finale at Suffolk today. Best of last 3 using default settings

1st screen shot shows Bl/Bl and 3 good overlays in top 3 with favs below. Wagercapping potential for sure if we can get a run and some luck.

Bomb sitting tier 3 (#3 @17/1) is highest odds overlay in top 3. 2nd screenshot shows his pps and is coming off sharp win and rising in company.

3rd screenshot shows pace of horse velocities.

4th screenshot shows the pace of RACE velocities and here you see that the #3 Bomb ran against BOTH the fastest 1c and 2c pace of RACE velocity.

Certainly can do nothing except tap up your confidence a bit on a long shot wager. Is that a reasonable call? Forget the possibilities longer term with a bit of modeling in the workbook or record storer of your choice.

So longshot bet in tier 3 now also shows fastest pace of race 1c and 2c from its paceline race (last line)

5th screenshot is the result chart.

$37.00

Decision Model Video!
 

Richie,
Thanks for taking the time to explain the Decision Model Workbook!
The Early-Late Bias Technique that you found at Arlington Park will be part of my result checking procedure at Saratoga! A very astute observation and I for one appreciate you sharing it with us!
Maxspa

$37.00 nice :)

But it would have been a tough bet for me to make seeing that his 2 best races were on off tracks...but at 17-1 would you/or anybody else consider it??

mike

Bet
 

Mike .. I looked at the race many ways
and Although the guidelines are to bet big overlays in the top
3 , considering the odds on the other two in the top 3
BLBL I don't think I would have bet the off track 3

Bill

Mike,
remember... sometime to be contrarian does pay. Not to be afraid to choose an unconventional pace line.

Once I get a horse into the Top 3 BL by consistent, normal means, even though they be 3rd or a long price according to the crowd, I'd look for reasons to build confidence. Whatever work he did and over whatever quality track surface he did it, it was against the fastest adjusted pace to the 2nd call, closing as he normally does - and you have to either set or overcome the pace of the race to win it. His profile works well here. The good odds are insurance against loss (i.e. you may lose this race, but keeping within these scenarios means you can lose a number of these and come out ahead when they hit). Perhaps Win only is a bit too daring, but Win Place, or somewhere in Exactas seems prudent.

Of course you can also see best POR (ranks and time, not velocity) on the Adjusted screen.

Ted