Sorry I was Banned from the last seminar, saved 27.00, but I do agree, we want the most current form to analyze a horse's condition, I would think, as you say 10 races ago could be over a year or longer, an awesome 2-3 yr old race may never be duplicated, but a horse running recently and has been for last 180 days, will be able to show it's current form in the paceline's, even if it had a troubled trip, or prone to trouble, like humans, we tend to always find trouble, you know people like this and horses too are like this, but sticking to post...tie breakers.


3rd best and 4th worst, can you hear yourself there, stop and think , please, we are talking horse's, not quantum physics, Our goal is to find horse we think can win today's race, that means finding , if we can what the pace of todays race will be and how it fits each horse, and from that find what 2-3 horse's, are the best win canidates, and current form and current pace profiles, and current class ,they each help us decide how the horse will run today, does 3rd best and 4th worst fit here, I think not, but I am a simple man with a simple mind, I could be wrong...you state your inquisitive, which I am too, but sometimes my mind limits where I can go, your may allow you go where I can not, and to you 3rd best and 4th worst makes you say, Wow, AND IF IT DOES COULD YOU EXPLAIN TO ME WHY, honsetly, I do not get it, and not being sarcastic or mean or anything like that, just honestly wanting to know, inquisitively, please.

For me RDSS 2.0 is Tie Breaker, because it works, we know it does and Doc proved it many times that it works, and Ted and Barb , and the Bill's and all of us who use it, what I do know about NP is that it is not refined and may never be, but RDSS2.0 is a fine tuned program, NOW THIS MY OPINION, and from my little bit research, my conclusion, others may need 5000 race's to study and such, not me , I am not willing to put my hard earned money on the line with it, but RDSS 2.0 I would, and have.

GL45 I am tired an off to bed , please let us follow up on this,I am very interested,

patrick

pk,
If you're not interested in New Pace, I suggest you start to take some Quantum Physics classes at nearby Community College, if there are any. Community College are cheap and some of the educators are above average. Possibly with some luck you might find one that is interested in horse racing and help you to find the holy grail, and if you do, let me know, it seems I'm the less educated by your standard.
Good luck, you do need it.
G>

:confused::confused:

I think you guys may have misunderstood Daves use of the last 4 speed ratings as tie breakers. The use of 3rd best and 4th worst is only used to get the contenders, the final 4 and the price only horses.
The use of the last 4 races speed ratings are used as a composite to separate these contenders. It is not the average of just the last 4, but it uses the rankings of the last race added to the rankings taken from the averages of the last two, and then the averages of the last 3 and then the average of the last 4 races with each rank being multiplied by the %s assigned to each rank, just like the rankings in New Pace.
This was my understanding of its use from Daves workshop.

You are correct!

Rich,
with all do respect, I didn't misunderstood Dave. The confuse one is the Truck Driver.
Let see:
the last speed rating is multiplied by "1"
The averages of the last 2 speed ratings are multiplied by .62
The averages of the last 3 speed ratings are multiplied by .38
The averages of the last 4 speed ratings are multiplied by .24
and the averages of the best 2 speed ratings are multiplied by .14

everything is added up to a single number, and ties are derived by rankings the final numbers.
If the above formulas are wrong, than I fail again.
I have been fooling around with new pace since the day one. I tried everything to make it work as a black box, to be honest nothing worked, till now.
There is something about new pace that made me working a little harder at it.
Some don't like to work at it, I do, and it is what separate the wheat from the chaff.

Thanks

It would be nice if you could attend them workshop thingies, guess they help you understand this NP thing, oh well, your explanation was great thank you.


I do hope all this is done for you , the calculations, right? Otherwise I will stop now, and just keep using RDSS 2.0!!

patrick

Black Box, that will be the day, no matter how hard you work, Period.

This I can promise anyone, there is no Black Box, trust me on this, now for NP in RDSS2.0 , well maybe with enough studies and tweaking , 1 day it may be a good contender selection process to use, but you still need to narrow things down, as all the studies show, 4 wagers per race does not work , either win or ex boxes, yes you can have a lucky day, but then reality sets in and you lose and lose and lose.

But since there have been many new so called developements that I am not privy to, how could I honestly answer this, well for one thing, I paid for Newpace, and lost with Newpace, and then was cut off from further updated materials for NP because I reported on this site exactly what I found, newpace does not win, so yes I think I have the right to say NP does not work, and I have done my homework with it, despite what some people think, and posting here is my right and I will stay up on this and speak my mind, until Ted says otherwise, no offense is ever meant to anyone, I only wish to win, hopefully like y'all do, and being cut-off from updates, after wasting your hard earned money on a product, and some of the numerous Classess and such, spending more money, and after moving to RDSS to try to make NP work, you get banned, like I did, it is frustrating, and yet no refund of NP was ever offered, nothing but seeya, all for posting directly what NP gave me for Saratoga, and then doing the recap at the end of the day, nothing more.

My take on NP was that it's from Doc's old Early Late stuff, (disclaimer my opinion, not stating it is, okay), from the follow ups, and well Ted has decided it belongs here and that is more than enough for me to try to be patient , ask questions and wait till we figure this thing out the best we can here on RDSS, as the people here are among the best out there, and we know it, not being concieted or sarcastic, just stating a fact I believe to be true.

the storm will be here soon, and I will be able to relax and help others , as I will helping at the tracks doing whatever is needed of me, if needed at all.

patrick

gl45, I apologize for saying you guys may have misunderstood the use of the last 4 speed ratings as tie breakers. You have a very good understanding of what Dave was trying to get across. It was my mistake in assuming that neither of you understood the concept. Hope you will forgive me.
Your friend; rmath

Rich,
no apologies were necessary. I'm trying to get the truck driver understand that it is time for him to put some work in horse racing handicapping rather than continuing to ask for help. Plenty of help was donated to him, on other web sites as well, and the story goes on.....
Warm salutation to you, my friend.
G.