Update
 

Heres an up-date as of 11/20

I will do this after each break in the week..(WED or THURS)

BJ...You got ahead of me on doing other tracks..I plan on doing a study of Tampa's meet starting in December.

So far RDSS is giving a hefty 50% profit..:)

Looking good
 

Hi Mike,

After getting the time to take a more careful look at your results (again, great job on the layout), and doing a little data-mining, I believe that this may be even better than you and Pino believe. As I said, I'm going to wait for more races to come in, before getting overly optimistic, but these results look really good to me.

Two questions which may seem so obvious as to be stupid, but just to confirm - I'm assuming that the red-numbered horses are the favorites, and that the exacta-payoff amounts are for a $1 exacta?

BTW, re my comments on other tracks - just speculating.

Keep up the great work.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thxs BJ...your answers are true to both


mike

Update
 

as of 12/2..

had a bad stretch last week , possibly due to off tracks

but came back with vengeance yesterday...

Still in the groove
 

Hi Mike,

I see what you mean. But re those bad days, remember that statistically, they're almost meaningless. Focus on the big picture. You're still doing well. Even if without the last big hit, you would still be ahead. Just for yourself, if you want to make things clearer, you might make a simple line chart of your results, as though following a stock price.

BTW, it looks as though RDSS has done much better than BRIS here, probably because the BRIS numbers are so widely used by the betting public.

If you have extra time (who does, right now?), I would be interested to know how many ML favorites who were not NP contenders, actually won. I'm guessing it was roughly 10-13.

Thanks again for all your work.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Hello Mike,

I have been following what you are doing and it is nice to see that the study is showing positive results. This is a solid contribution and I thank all who have contributed.

In fact I played the mountain last night and hit 2 exactas using this method. Ok I cheated a little and ran the contenders through RDSS and only bet if at least 3 RDSS contenders boxed to the NEW Pace contenders.

I passed the races where the exacta payoffs did not meet the $12 minimum at
or near post time. BUT....when the exacta payoff between 2 contenders is less
than $12 say $10 It might be worth to still take the bet and live with a $2.00 loss if there is only 1 low odds horse and the other exacta combos will pay at least $ 20 or more for a $1.00 payoff. This is a deviation from the criteria and
a separate study has to be conducted to see if this is worth while. I am considering of tracking this myself

Also you can consider saving data entry by not reporting races where there are no bets as it is understood that there will be no betting if specific conditions are present.

Regards,

Ernie

Thxs BJ and Ernie

But remember, credit goes to Pino for developing this and the tedious work that follows..

BJ..I wouldn't have those results ...maybe Pino does..he'll let us know when he reads this..

Ernie...its not cheating at all...but remember , some NP contenders defy all laws of physics ...lol


I'm tinkering in making a decision on doing another track ..MTR goes on a vacation of 3 months after the 23rd...

I started tracking Tampa but my go to a all year track ..Parx

Mike

I think Parx is a good idea since it is open all year.

It is amazing, some of those NP horses come out of nowhere and at high mutuals. When you look over their PP's the horse may have ran ITM about 200 days ago yet the last 6 , 7 or so races it was eating dust downwind. A clear RDSS throwout.

Ernie

NB stats
 

Hi Mike,

Just wanted to add, with no disrespect to Ernie, that the stats on the NB races are of value to me, if it's not too much of a problem for you to continue to include them in your summary.

Also, as you say, much thanks to Pino, for spotting this angle, and to both of you, for the work of compiling the stats. Your faith in NP may be gaining a new convert.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

Mike,

Pino is really very good finding a way to use these different techniques
and I know he works very hard in doing so.

Jeff