Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Stretchout Logic (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8165)

lsosa54 02-23-2012 12:06 PM

Hi Ted - no problem. I'm sure you were trying to get that beta release done and I'm no stranger to having no spare time.

Thanks for the reminder that we are adjusting to Sartin Downs - that's where I went wrong in trying to figure out what was going on. Glad you agree that the penalty is huge on the sprinter and doesn't reflect the reality of a stretch out, given that both HOL and DMR are poly and the DTV's were basically the same for the sprinter and routers. Wouldn't think the speeds of the DMR and HOL surfaces would be extremely different but I could be wrong.

Regarding the modes, I've never used Speculator and lightly used Validator, but am I right to say the difference is how they treat the value of a beaten length, Validator trying to get horses closer together for BL/BL purposes?

Thanks.

Lou

lsosa54 03-04-2012 05:57 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 78501)
Lou,

I would appreciate other examples of sprint to route projections which seem too slow. It is important to specify whether using Val4 mode or Spec mode (which you did = Val4).

Ted

Ted: Another stretch out which seems way off, this time from SA dirt.

Eden's Moon adjustment also seems too much, given the 15 points in variant difference vs. the 8.5 f routers, certainly at the 1st call.

BRIS corresponding e1 e2 sr are as follows:

Renee 88 95 101 sprint line
Willa 81 87 96
Killer 74 79 92
Eden's 81 90 94

While the BRIS sr's seem to mirror the order of the TM sr's, it's in the adjusted SR where Eden gets killed. Theoretically, BRIS sr's are adjusted for track to track and dtv.

Also, BRIS would have Eden about 1.5 lengths ahead of Willa at the 2nd call where TM adjusted shows Willa 3 lengths ahead at the 2nd call.

If Renee doesn't blow the 1st turn, they run the race pretty much according to the e2 for these contenders and Renee possibly even wins.

Thanks.

Lou

Ted Craven 03-04-2012 06:44 PM

Val4 mode or Default mode?

lsosa54 03-04-2012 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 78814)
Val4 mode or Default mode?

Still in Val 4 mode Ted. Do you suggest I switch to default?


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