Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Congratulations CDAX

Thank you everyone,

It is because of the help and support of this site that I have improved my 'capping skills.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 79147)

Chris:

great job, these long contests are really wearing. It would be interestiing after such a long contest to hear how your perceptions of handicapping, individual aspects of handicapping and your mental state progressed throughout the contest, especially your self confidence.

Good going,

Bill

Quote:

perceptions of handicapping

I rarely take into account the length of the contest. You need to gear yourself to the type of contest. When I am absolutely, positively confident a horse will win I don't need to check his odds, because he's probably the dead-chalk, even-money favorite. And using that pick in an ROI contest, using only up to 3 betting choices with Win, Place and exacta bets will slowly sink you to the bottom (as I am demonstrating lately), but I have no problem using top two favorites in one leg of the pick 4. I don't really like it if I'm trying to fill my pockets, but for a contest it seemed to work.

Also, I only focus on the contestant directly ahead of me. Just beat him this week, this day. I was getting frustrated not hitting a measly $500 p4 to catch Casino.

The final pick 4 I chose the early, because the late had state-bred and beaten claimers and the early had fewer horses. I figured, making $200 p4 with smaller fields would give me a better shot at hitting it. Didn't think it would have paid that!

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individual aspects of handicapping

Generally a pace handicapper, which is why I'm here I guess. I use some ideas from Dave Schwartz, assorted pace figures, dabble in many of the methods other members share here and like you Bill (correct me if I'm wrong) feel most comfortable and confident with the Match-Up and especially Hat's Marathon Spot Play.

So, when looking at the races that make up each pick 4 I take the one with the races I feel most comfortable with. I look for long routes, turf or dirt. I have found I am absolutely horrid at beaten claimers, even $30,000 beaten claimers.

Quote:

mental state progressed throughout the contest, especially your self confidence.

Now for a little shout out to Richie P. I was (am) flabbergasted that the two big scores I had came from tickets that I literally put together in 15 - 20 minutes. I was pressed for time, ran through the races, made the picks. My Mind's Eye must have been in tune those days. Sometimes I think I look too deeply into a race (or horse) or over think it.

I was never confident I would win the contest, but felt confident I would hit at least a couple of tickets and hoping they paid well.

Hope I answered queries sufficiently.

Thanks again.

Chris