Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5

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- - FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10524)

Thanks Bill for the reference, I knew it was somewhere. The "Doc" also said; "workouts are a secondary factor. " Frequency and time between workouts are far more predicative of winners than workouts times alone."

I've always remember the 55 FPS rule and have used it over the years. More important the horse itself has to be considered and the workout has to be put into context such as the # 8 here repeating a pattern. Trainers also repeat patterns E.g. Baffert always gives fast workouts. Some horses respond and some don't.

You'll also see where trainers let off and give very slow workouts after a horse doesn't respond in races to fast workouts and that wakes them up. Connections definitely have an edge over us as to the actual condition of their horses as has always been the case, but there are opportunities to observe. Take note of changes.

Mitch44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44 (Post 104998)

Thanks Bill for the reference, I knew it was somewhere. The "Doc" also said; "workouts are a secondary factor. " Frequency and time between workouts are far more predicative of winners than workouts times alone."

I've always remember the 55 FPS rule and have used it over the years. More important the horse itself has to be considered and the workout has to be put into context such as the # 8 here repeating a pattern. Trainers also repeat patterns E.g. Baffert always gives fast workouts. Some horses respond and some don't.

You'll also see where trainers let off and give very slow workouts after a horse doesn't respond in races to fast workouts and that wakes them up. Connections definitely have an edge over us as to the actual condition of their horses as has always been the case, but there are opportunities to observe. Take note of changes.

Mitch44

Hi Mitch

Here are Bob Bafferts 7 winners so far at the current Del Mar meet

The workout ratings are all very high (bold face)
The last workout before the race speed ratings are also fast
The RDSS2.1 Notations are shown
The workouts are evenly space, always with the -FPD.
In 5 of the 7 races we see a 5f or 6f, In the 2 races that don't we see the SAR or "Sartin" Pattern , that means evenly spaced workouts at about 55 FPS

Good Skill
Bill V.

Attachment 40957

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark (Post 104979)

Pook,
Richie offered to give me some assistance with my Matching skills and not wanting to be too intrusive into his very busy life I sent him 4 or 5 races of which the EVD 5 race was one. My primary criteria was a field with 8 or more betting interests. He liked this race because it had a very clear FPLR horse the #9 horse. As published the FPLR concept is if you can find this horse in a race and that becomes your pace of the race. If after handicapping the race, he meets the variegation and no one can "knock him off", he is your horse. Well, it didn't take too much time to see that the #9 had only won with an open lead at the 1st call and that he was not going to get it today. There were 4 horses that wanted the lead at the first call or shortly thereafter. This was going to be a cavalry charge. We found the #10 with a substantially better 1st fraction, 21.9 and the #4, with a better 2nd call 45.8, I used his 10th line. So with those two times you could see that a 21.9 -45.8 pace was within reason. So you toss the #9 and in my view you toss all the Es and EPs. In my reading I saw something that Jim Bradshaw had said, Pressers in a field like this that want to lay pretty close get sucked into that speed duel too. So in my view the E, EPs and Ps were going to be looking for a place to lie-down turning for home and a one run S type would most likely run down the center of the track and blow by everyone.
This is one of the main reasons why you have to look at all the horses' pacelines. These are the lines I used in this race:
Attachment 40951
If you stick to the best of the last 3 lines comparable you can't see how the horses Match Up. I used POWER LINES. So you see the #10 horse roar out to a good lead and the #4 catching him and passing him at the 2nd call. You see that the other earlies and pressers can handle this pace. So the race will run OTE and be won by a horse who has position 6 at the 1st call. That is the advanced Match Up as Richie P explained it while being personally taught by the Master, Jim Bradshaw!
Now if you plug in the 6th line for the #8 and notice all the other good things about him he lies 6th and of your final contenders, the 3 S horses, he will be closest to the leader at the 1st Call. He becomes an S horse or demonstrates he can run and win as an S horse and is no longer tossed as being apart of the Early brigade!!
If that is not the Match Up then I don't know what is!

Mark thanks for the explanation of why this illustrated FPLR. I see that, but I didn't see it getting me anywhere different than projecting off the Earlies 9 and 10. Both ways I ended up with 1,3,6,7 OTE. I had the 8 OTE but he had never faced, let alone been competitive against, the projected pace. He had won from the 6th position but it was such a slow race. That is why I switched him off.

This race was a pass for me as stated above. Too tough. When I said the winner was un-gettable I should have added (for me the way I approach the Matchup). Yes there were little things that you could have seen here and there as many have pointed out but to walk that path before it was run.....????? Nobody mapped it out beforehand. Some did have him. Only Mitch gave any semblance as to why and it had nothing to do with what is being talked about here.

Too bad you weren't able to cash on the 3. That was a good call and a good price. I am no Jim Bradshaw either but I am getting closer (sort of). Looking at all the lines, power-lines, from the bottom up, minds-eye etc...I am working it.

It was an interesting race,
Pook

Great post Bill to verify another Sartin concept that still remains valid today and shed some some light on Baffert for RDSS followers.

For me anyway Baffert is notorious for fast works. But "Sartin" 2 patterns ( 55 and evenly spaced) cover most well intended horses and are a great asset for horses coming off layoffs.

Players fail to realize that it takes a couple of months of training just to get a horse to the track, including those that finish last. These rules won't always apply 100% because some trainers deliberately work their horses slow. They don't believe in leaving their race on the training track in morning workouts and or they hide their moves within slower works. E.g. worked 5F but 2F were very fast and the other 3 were very slow. Ditto for a 6 F work w/ 3 fast & 3 slow.
Great tools and I believe I first heard of the 55:00 at the Saratoga seminar in 1996 however it could have been when I purchased Pace Makes the Race a few years later.
Good skill,
Mitch44

Speaking of Bob Baffert - one angle I've a lot of success with him is to bet the longest odds horse of Baffert's uncoupled entries, i.e. American Cleopatra.

Dave,
Thanks for posting the workouts, one’s thing is for sure, the horse was sound and in shape.

Quote:

At one point in the betting the #8 horse got up to 9/1 -10/1. Late money knocked him down to 5/1.

That kind of what I was anticipating, that the crowd would not normally bet this type of horse. I’m not saying I would have picked this horse , but I am mad that I did not see the layoff win, as that is something I normally look for. At the very least this race reinforces some of the handicapping principles that I apply.

LT1 and I are also aware of that Baffert move delayjf with uncoupled entry's and take advantage of it when he comes East as I don't play California tracks that often.

Mitch44

It's not only Baffert there are many trainers nation wide that do it. I was told about this many years agoby a former leading NY trainer. The trainer is telling you in most cases that he/she believes either of the 2 can win.
Tim