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3rd Key - early / other than early - who to bet
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"Most races Rich are going to be won other than early" - Jim Bradshaw
Finding the horse to BET: OTHER THAN EARLY: 1) We have looked at a race and decided there is too much pressure at the FIRST call among the early horses to have one of them win. The most important thing we HAVE to do IMMEDIATELY is throw the early horses ALL out NOW. Then AFTER removing ALL of them we bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. WATCH. screenshot showing everyone with multiple lines entered to verify styles |
3rd Key - Early / other than early - who to bet
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OTHER THAN EARLY (cont):
Now we remove ALL the position -1 guys at the FIRST CALL. We have a classic other than early race shape. Of the REMAINING horses we are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. See all these "keys" work TOGETHER with some practice(and I am included here. still learning for sure ok?) here is the race NOW after throwing practically the whole darn field OUT WHOM are YOU gonna bet?? BET the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. See it? The #5 is the winner of the race - $23.60 |
3rd Key - Early / Other than early - Summary
To make this concept work for YOU there is one thing that HAS to be done in EVERY race worked (whether early or other than early). It is also somethinig that IS going to make some VERY uncomfortable. Here it is in spades:
You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race. You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race. You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT of the race. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- In the case of an "Early" shape the WHOLE field is tossed except for the true early. There goes the security blanket of being able to say after the race runs and we lose: "but look I have the horse in my readouts. there he is. Look." Who gives a rat's tail. We did NOT bet the horse because of one reason or another. THAT is the bottom line. Removing horses as shown in the previous posts is the ONLY way to have a chance to SUCCESSFULLY use Jim Bradshaw's Early/Other than early concept of finding and betting THE horse (win or lose) in TODAY'S race. I will tell you this. Of EVERYTHING posted so far THIS will be the HARDEST thing to do. If you are NOT willing to take the plunge and do this FORGET about learning and using the 3rd key. PERIOD. ALL joking and back slapping etc etc are FINISHED. THIS is SERIOUS. Can YOU do this? Can YOU take the next step? Can YOU open your mind to truly NEW ideas? Can YOU accept LOSING races while NOT seeing the winner? Can YOU accept a loss and NOT look back but instead look FORWARD? This is Jim Bradshaw's Early/ other than Early Richie |
Ok, I need this one clairifed if I a may. When first looking at the race I look first for the key race ( fastest pace at TODAYS track correct?) now if the horse that ran against this pace shows nothing I (at this time, correct me if Im wrong here please) Im going to look for another probable pace, looking for the E typesand take it from there. This has always confused me here, whether to use the fastest, last line from todays track or once again, if the horse shows little against this line to look elsewhere for the probable pace.
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Excellent
"You MUST throw whole groups of horses OUT the race"..........Yep,.......Got it.......Like it,...Love it,.......that's what Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw does,....that's what makes the MatchUp soooooooooo attractive.....throws almost entire fields out like an ancient 82nd Degree Aikido Master. No "well this readout" or " he's #3 Smuv" or "but he's dropping in class" or " he's #4 in TurnTime" or "this" and "lookee here, what about that".....is he Early or Other than Early?
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Question.
Does it matter if the " fighting" occurs during a slow pace? If the Pace is slow during this ,should this bonus be discounted? |
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The ONLY thing I have posted so far is this: "3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lenghts at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lenghts (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse's WHOLE pp's up and evaluate him off BEST line (s). You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early)." ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Keep this SEPERATE from projecting a pace and things associated with the 5 step approach and the book. Projecting a pace and the 5 step approach obviously are all good BUT that is NOT what the above quoted stuff is ok? The above quoted passage is one of SEVERAL ADVANCED techniques the Hat taught me and it goes BEYOND what the book teaches. I am describing some of these techniques here in this thread. You do NOT have to know any of them to WIN. Go SLOWLY and try to do what the post says BEFORE you go and apply the techniques in Matchup2 (projecting pace, using same track etc etc) If it messes you up it is FINE to totally disregard the whole section quoted Doug. After you get more comfortable with the techniques in the book you can revisit this later man. NO SWEAT :) Richie |
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Hopefully the next key which focuses on "fighters" will clear up your questions. Btw welcome to Bill's board. Richie |
Thanks Richie:)) your right i was mixng this and the book, keep up the good work, this is really getting me as it were on the straight and narrow path.
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Richies Screen shot "1hd"
Some years ago, a fellow attached himself to me at the track. It can be tiresome, but it's also flattering that someone values your opinion enough to seek you out. My singular mission with him was to get him to look at the races with unconventional eyes - now here was someone who wasn't contaminated with mainstrain thinking; it was his first year of racing.
While everyone else was looking at the finish of the race, I suggested, rather forcefully, that we would instead watch and evaluate the beginning of the race; this is where you can find real treasure; it's not that the first quarter mile is seeded with gold, it's more that you'll be the only one prospecting in that patch. My kind of horse sports a profile with beaten lengths that puts off the crowd, yet they have that characteristic "1hd" I knew the lessons finally took when he called me one morning bursting with excitement, and before he had chance to enlighten me with his keen insight, I responded with "I know, third race horse #7" Unconventional can extend itself to where you begin handicapping. Why start with the first race - everyone's usually pretty sharp for the kickoff. Begin in the forth quarter - 9th race - where most of your competition needs a hail mary to get back into the game. Value what the competion undervalues, and do what they're not doing. Regards, Chris |
Hi Richie. I just want to see if I got it straight.
Lets say that horse "A" has the Fastest Pace in its last race. A: 23 45 112 4 4 6 6 B: 23.2 45.3 112.4 5 5 7 8 22.1 44.4 111.2 2 2 3 3 c: 23.3 46.2 112.4 3 3 3 6 22.2 45 112 2 2 4 4 D: 23.3 45.2 112.4 3 3 3 3 21.2 43.2 111.4 5 5 5 5 21.3 43.4 111. 2 2 2 2 Now, would I be right if the horse I pick to win would be the "D" horse using line 3. I know that I did not mention anything about lengths. I just want to see if I understand this part. That's if the race is going to run "other than Early". emilio |
4th Key - The Fighter
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"Rich I love fighters" - Jim Bradshaw - 1st day working with him - May 2006
"Rich you know how much I love fighters" - Jim Bradshaw - June 2006 "Rich he's lone early plus a fighter. I love him" - Jim Bradshaw - July 2006 "Rich the 2 loves to fight and he is fast" - Jim Bradshaw - August 2006 "Rich the fighter is using extra units of energy the other's are not." Jim Bradshaw - September 2006 "When you are considering a line where a horse fought give him extra credit in your mind when evaluating him" - Jim Bradshaw - October 2006 "Early horses who show the ability to fight at the 1c and or 2c and still go on to with the race are extremely dangerous horses Rich" Jim Bradshaw -November 2006 "When evaluating an early horse to see if it can get the lead it needs at the 1st call to win include the 2-hd and 2-nk horses in addition to the other earlies at the 1st call. They are fighters and HAVE to be accounted for Rich" Jim Bradshaw - December 2006 "A horse who shows up as a fighter at a certain call might have been engaged in the fight for over a quarter of a mile Rich. THINK about how FAR that actually is" - Jim Bradshaw - January 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- A fighter is a horse that goes up and looks another horse in the eye. This is seen in the pp's by a: 1) hd 2) nk next to the horse's position at that call. PERIOD. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trying to put an ABSOLUTE "value" on what fighting between calls is worth is NOT possible. The fighter IS using extra units of energy in the race that can and should be factored in to his evaluation TODAY. How much credit and what interpretation of him is correct will get stronger and more solid through PRACTICE and EXPOSURE to HUNDREDS of these type horses. I am personally going through this right now. I CAN say this with CERTAINTY: If in your mind you are considering a horse who fought at ONE call as having used ONE extra unit of energy then a horse who has fought at TWO calls has used MORE than 2 extra units of energy. The energy usage is NOT proportional. These multi call fighters are VICIOUS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jim tells me this PATTERN RECOGNITION of fighters and their impact on races will become clearer in our minds with PRACTICE and EXPOSURE to many hundreds of races where they are present. WHY am I including the fighter as one of the 6 keys even though explaining what exactly his worth is becomes a PERSONAL exploration? Because THIS is the ONE thing that has remained the same in Jim's teachings to me from day ONE. Something I always remember when working a race for the rest of my life. Other techniques and "looks" at certain concepts like tandems,pace etc have CHANGED over months of working hundreds of races with him but the FIGHTER and his POWER in Jim's mind has always stayed the SAME. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Look at the # 2 - an early fighter - wins the race |
4th Key - The Fighter
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look at the 5 - other than early Fighter - wins the race
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4th Key - The Fighter
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the 8 wins the race - an early fighter
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4th Key - The Fighter
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the 6 wins the race - an early fighter
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5th Key - Spot Plays
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"I have spot plays that can turn a bad day into a good one and a good one into an excellent one" - Jim Bradshaw's Matchup2 with the 5 step approach
(page 139) "Rich instead of looking at one track and trying to figure every race multi track a few and look for spot plays that work for you" - Jim Bradshaw "Rich you need the races to produce income for you. Don't do what I do and bet every race at every track. Spot play" - Jim Bradshaw ------------------------------------------------------------------------- In working races over and over in the SAME way I have a total of THREE spot plays in my arsenal as of this post. I am close to having a 4th but it is not firmly set in my mind. I need to see a few more SUCCESSFUL applications of it before I KNOW I will win using it. Here are the 3 I have and I will save the strongest for ME for last. *** IMPORTANT*** What follows are PATTERNS of horse's "looks". The track,distance,surface,class are all MEANINGLESS. 1) Lone Early - Pretty much self explanatory. I have fairly good results with this with most of the winners toward the low payer side.Not all but most. Here is a screenshot of a lone early. The #2 is the winner of the race. |
skillz
Those quotes by Mr. Bradshaw. Superb illustration to HAMMER your point, and necessary. Doc Sartin presented a unique flavor in his presentations; a almost perfect balance and blend of Art and Science. You're right there Rich.
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5th Key - Spot Plays
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My 2nd spot play is one I love.
I have gotten good at these especially the last 30-45 days. This is DIRECTLY due to something Jim had told me a few months earlier but it had NOT sunk in. It finally did and if it does for you there is MONEY here. Again all of the keys tie together and this is no exception. Jim re-emphasized LOOKING at the first call beaten lenghts needed by an early horse to win and then checking that against TODAY'S matchup at the FIRST call. If the horse can NOT get it today remove him IMMEDIATELY. Couple his words with KNOWING his strong opinion on FIGHTERS has led to this my 2nd spot play: 2) Dominant early in race with multiple earlies. Go SLOWLY and look at the 2 races I am gonna post. Start with the FIRST call as always and check pace of race and then the FIGHTING if present. Then re read what the Hat emphasized. Then LOOK at the screenshot ok? This spot play for ME is the "home of the 8.00 to 14.00 horse". For some reason there is a bit of confusion present in the betting of these races very often. The mutuals listed are GREAT in my opinion. This first example is from Charlestown. Shoeless's home track. I worked this race with him over the phone and Jeff NAILED the winner in like 15 seconds. how THIS horse paid $10.00 is beyond me. The winner is the #1 |
5th Key - Spot Plays
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2) Dominant early in race with multiple earlies (cont) - This next race we go to Santa Anita. Again LISTEN to what Jim says about the FIRST CALL and then look SLOWLY a couple of times at this screenshot.
I hope you can see the same PATTERN as the previous race. If not right away it is OK. Go SLOWLY and look a few times. wait a day and go back and revisit. This is EXACTLY what Jim woudl do with me if and when I would get stuck ok? The winner is the # 2 - $9.40 |
5th Key - Spot Plays
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This 3rd and last spot play is unreal. Plain and simple.
3)Other than early into THREE matching earlies at the FIRST CALL: I found this play after working a few races "live" with Jim on the phone during the Keeneland fall meet. Wanna know what pressure is? Being on the phone with the Hat(while he is watching TVG showing the races live) and have him wait til the horses are LOADING into the gate to ask you to work a race and "hurry up Rich they are almost ready to run. Who is the horse Rich?" The first 2 races worked like this my horse lost. Then the third time I scanned the field,saw something DIFFERENT and told him "Jim there are 3 matching earlies at the first call". He QUICKLY said " Rich WHO is sitting 3rd or 4th? THAT is the winner after you toss the earlies.Just make sure the horse is FAST.Hurry up they are gonna pop the gate". I heard what he said and then saw THE horse. It was the #2. I told him the 2 was my horse and they were off and running. Jim described the race and around the turn all I can remember was hearing him say" Rich your 2 is passing everybody and is going to win the race!. He is 9/1!". That was the FIRST time I had gotten a winner with him before the race ran and it felt GREAT. Something honestly I will NEVER forget. Then the next day he tells me a race to do and I lose it. The next day he picks a race just about to run and I SEE it is the SAME race as the one I hit a couple days earlier. Only this time it is a route instead of a sprint. I tell Jim all this and he says QUICKLY " Rich do the SAME thing you did before. Tell me the horse sitting 3rd-4th who is FAST. That is the winner. Don't matter if it's 4f or 10f. WHO is the horse Rich and hurry up". I don't remember the number but find the horse and tell him as the gate pops. Sure enough the SAME thing happens with my horse blowing past everyone at about 9/2 or 5/1. He then tells me "Rich you are getting real good with these type races. That's 2 nice winners back to back. You should look for these race types and SPOT PLAY" Well those words from Jim and that EXPERIENCE has NEVER left me nor will it ever. THIS spot play is the "home of the $10.00 to $40.00 horse". Total chaos is OFTEN present in the betting of the race as nobody knows what the hell to do. By FAR the highest win price average of MY spot plays. Also the highest win %. YES I keep records. here is a screenshot of the whole field using multiple lines |
5th Key - Spot Plays
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3) Other than early into 3 matching earlies at the FIRST call (cont):
here is the screenshot AFTER removing ALL the position1 guys at the first call. The winner is the #5 - $23.60 |
Richie,If that was me looking at that race I would have probably played the 8 as the lone early off the 23.4 47.6.Jeff
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Jeff this is what I was hoping for. Now LOOK at the FIRST CALL for your 8 ok? how many lenghts did he have the lead by THERE ?? the answer is TWO NOW go look at the #10 FIRST CALL what is his time THERE big bro? 23.3( fifths) right ? so the question is IS THE 8 GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET THE 2 LENGHT LEAD HE NEEDED TO WIRE THAT FIELD IN TODAY'S MATCHUP ??????? The answer is NO. do you see that? When he can't get it THROW THE HORSE OUT IMMEDIATELY This is what Jim showed me over 3 months ago Jeff and I could NOT understand it and frankly it cost me a LOT of losses betting on presumed lone earlies that wound up getting destroyed man HONEST TRUTH ok? LOOK and then re read what the Hat writes about this in the previous posts I made. Jeff there is like NOBODY doing this man. IF we can take our time and absorb this lesson we have DEFINITE advantage in certain races. I am SO glad you posted what you did because for TWO MONTHS I did the same thing as you and watched most of the horses LOSE that is keeping it real Richie |
Richie,So what you are saying is even though the 8 got out in a faster 1st call by 2\5ths of a second he wouldnt be as fast as the 10 who got out by 4 in a slower time.If that's the case Im glad I asked that question because I screwed up a few races.Jeff
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23.2 -7f 23.4 - 8f BOTH races he has a TWO lenght lead at the FIRST CALL which is his COMFORT zone to WIN ok? so if any EARLY stlye horse runs a 23.4 ( using his 7f line - 24.1 using the 8f line) this guy will NOT have the same lead he shows when WINNING ok? now look at the 10 Jeff 23.3 ON THE LEAD NO WAY the 8 gets his 2 lenght COMFORT ZONE with this guy in the race. At MOST he gets a ONE lenght lead so he is thrown out IMMEDIATELY see it? FORGET: 1) 2nd c 2) final time 3) speed ratings let's try going where NOBODY goes Jeff. That is what this Hat method IS. Unique and POWERFUL after some PRACTICE hope this clears it up Richie |
Richie,Thanks you explained it very well.Jeff
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pressure
Jezzzzzzz-us christ, man. AS the horses loading in the gate, Mr. Bradshaw on the phone, sayin hurry up, who's the horse, they 'bout to run? You definitetly the man, the chosen one to be able to that. Thats nails. Thats Brass. And Nad. Dont know anyone who could do that. I couldnt do it and wouldnt attempt to try. I'd be pourin gallons of cold sweat, freeze, then crack like an eggshell. Then, after I hung up the phone, would probably have to change to a fresh pair of underwear. wow....
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The #9 has a spark of Spot Play #2 - Dominant Early. I can certainly see that #9 is not truly 'dominant' because of his second call (and onward). However, the real subtlety of the process emerges by these examples. For example, how fast would the second call of #9 need to be for the entire racey to shift to a Spot Play #2- Dominat Early on #9? Perhaps I'm off base, but I'm just thinking aloud about all the complexities going on here.
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Spot Play Clarification
The faster #9 line indicates a spark of dominant early. I can certainly see that #9 is not truly 'dominant' early because of his second call time (and beyond). This raises the question of how fast #9's second call would have to be for the entire play to shift to #9 as Spot Play #2- Dominant Early? Is #9's actual first call fast enough to be considered 'dominant early'? I'm just thinking aloud about all the subtleties of the process. The lines of delineation are fuzzy- perhaps this is the nature of the 'art' of Match-Up.
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check the first fractions and first calls of the #9's pacelines. Then COMPARE those to the # 8 and #10. The look at the LEAD he had at the 1st call and see if he can get that same lead today ok? He can NOT even get the lead with the presence of BOTH the 8 and 10 in TODAY'S race so we remove him IMMEDIATELY. Richie |
Spot Plays
Thanks Richie-
#9 is fighter and a more than double fighter because of the 1-hd at the first two calls. Even with this more than double extra credit, he does not get the lead? Hmmmm? Nevertheless, I get your drift...thanks for your clarification and reply |
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He is a 24 1st fraction going against a 23.3 and a 23.4. it will be tough to fight a horse who positionally runs early and will be 1 to 2 LENGHTS ahead of him. Fighting is looking the horse in the eye according to the Hat. Tough to do when you see nothing but 2 horse's rearends in front of you :) Download this file I have attached here Yank. It's todays Tampa Bay. Race 4 has a perfect example of YOUR double fighter and as you will see he fits the MATCHUP of todays horses quite nicely. I wont say who it is but when you find him he won the race easily |
If I were to play this race my cash would have been the 8.Jeff
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Richie:
Looking forward, I'm curious to know if you or Jim have identified a finite number of spot plays, more than the three already presented and the one you are still working on. I for one would be interested in finding out how to handle paceless races where it is likely that a presser type will inherit the lead. One of the reasons that I ask is because either in an earlier post here or in the Book, it was said that horses unaccustomed to getting the lead that do, in fact, get the lead, give it up. So is this perhaps a refinement of the early scenarios? where we rate only the closest closing types? Thanks, |
4th spot play
I'm curious, too, about the 4th spot play you're workin on. I remember Mr. Bradshaw said one time on tape that ALL races are spot plays to him. VoodooFan
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Yep, #8 Uno Way Calle seems like the pace of the race and untouchable.. I do see #5 General Ridgway closing and maybe #7 Jude's Star but I don't think #8 can be caught.
This is maiden race with a first time starter to boot. Are these to be bet? |
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the 3 I listed are my spot plays that I can apply and win with. Jim lists 3 of HIS in the new book and to be honest one of the ones HE lists is by far for ME a complete NIGHTMARE. Thats his "Sprinter in a Route" spot play. Bill when I tell you that I SUCK at these types believe me it is an UNDERSTATEMENT ok? I HAVE to stay so far away from them it isn't funny. Jim is unreal on the other hand. Somehow he "knows" which ones are real and which are not. Nobody is always right but I have seen enough to know he is "dialed in" BIG TIME to them. Amazing you ask this because TWICE in the last week I have told Hat on the phone about this "sprinter going to route" being by FAR by biggest weakness matching horses! He's real cool about it,never talks down to me. Just said" well leave it alone Rich and play to YOUR strenghts." So that is what I do Bill. |
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When he is "feeling it" and "has that look" like his wife LeRoi says it is unreal. I have seen it TWICE up close and personal. I will tell one of them here: 1) He had gone the week before and played Belmont and lost. When he spoke to me that night he was PISSED. I mean really pissed like I had NEVER heard before. He said to me" Rich the next time I bet Belmont I have unfinished business there". He calls me that Wednesday and asks what the weather is like since I am very close to Belmont. I tell him it's raining and he said he was NOT going to go and would wait for the weekend. That Sunday he calls and the weather is fine. He told me he would look a bit at other tracks BUT he was CONCENTRATING on Belmont. Again something he had NEVER told me before this. he always would go and bet EVERYTHING running at EVERY track running:) Long story short he went berserk and KILLED Belmont.Went 7 for 9 betting win with 3 of the 7 wins being double digit guys and of them one was 25/1. He also hit 3 COLD one horse pick 3's ( he copied one of the pick3 tickets and emailed it to me. It was BIG) and HAMMERED the track into oblivion. When I talked to him it was like he was possesed! Lmao! The other time is something better left for another day because nobody will believe it and will say it's BS. All I will say is that his wife LeRoi KNEW what was about to happen and told me 2 HOURS before post time EXACTLY what to do. IF I would have listened to her I SERIOUSLY could have bought a CAR. When he is feeling it he still kicks ass. let's leave it at that Voodoo,:) |
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Great call on the winning 8 Yank. He obliviated the field. Regarding the FTS question and it's a great one. Jim taught me to bet ANY and EVERY race where I can find THE HORSE that I KNOW is gonna win. Even if the horse loses I still KNOW the horse is gonna win. Follow? Those races are the ones he wants me to FOCUS on and SPOT PLAY. FTS means NOTHING to him. Excellent question. Seriously |
An amazing story, among many we hope you share in the near future. With women's intuition and all, wondered why some of that "voodoo" did'nt rub off on Mrs. Bradshaw.....?.:) VoodooFan
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