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This thread is gonna show some other cool stuff when Jim chimes in. I don't want to give it all away but he will show how to match power line vs. power line by explaining and showing the "Power Move". The first time Jim showed me this I had absolutely NO idea what the heck was going on. I remember telling him "what? I have no clue what you just did Jim". Well long story short is that I "got it" and now he will show it to all of you! It is very VERY cool! You will hit more "Other than early" races than you ever did before once you learn about the "Power Move". Richie |
Rich:
I know there is more advanced instructions to come on the Match Up methodology (thank you) but based on what you have said already I though I ask the following question. As to your statement “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” I am thinking this is more for early type runners (early-E or early pressers-EP). That is a presser-P or sustained presser-PS or even a closer-S would not necessarily be getting on top of a previously fast ˝-mile times that it ran against but instead would have to show (I guess) that it can still run against the faster half mile. Perhaps the Power Move that you have said is coming will clear this up for me or maybe I am just trying to fit this methodology [incorrectly] into my previously learned and practiced way of thinking/handicapping. For example when I incorrectly used the idea of going off form in a previous post as a possibility for a horse not being able to recently ‘get on top of fractions he previously could,” instead of just going with the idea that the horse has gotten slower. Thanks, Robert |
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And to Bill, thanks for providing the vehicle and all your efforts to keep this site humming. (P.S. I spent a lot of time in Mount Freedom as kid when it was mostly cow pastures and woods. No, it wasn't during the 1800's!!) [/quote] Thank you Fasthorses I am very proud of everyone here. They make the site work We are all just good friends hanging out and talking racing and sharing some ideas Yes I know Mount Freedom I travel up there once in awhile. Not too much industry Mostly its still pretty much woods and VERY large homes on old farm land welcome to pace and cap GS Bill |
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Sorry Rich, what was I thinking. I was looking at your examples over at the Handicapping Discussion section, specifically the Evangeline post, and looking again on what you have offered here on this post. I see that I am just confusing myself with the ESP criteria or trying to redefine a perfectly good and straightforward statement. “The Hats” recommendation “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” does not need redefinition from me. I am for my own education trying to say the same thing in a different way but managed to muddy it all up with the ESP conditions. If an off the pace horse (or any type runner) shows in recent racing that it can not “get on top of fractions he previously could” also means that it could not according to its recent racing show ability to run competitively against the previously established fast pace. Robert |
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You "got this" man! Good Richie |
Power Line And Power Moves
Rich has explained the meaning of "Power Lines" and have marked them for all of the horses in the 11th at Delaware. It just happens that the last line is the is the "power line" for most of the horses in today’s Mile and One Quarter race, but the "power line" may be anywhere in their past performance. I used the "Power Lines" on all the horse to match them in today’s race and very quickly see that the One, Six and Seven are Early, because they only win on or near the lead. The race will run "other than early." The Nine was scratched and I eliminate the Early horses, but I use the One horse’s "Power Line" for today’s pace. The One, Two, Four and Nine are from the same Tandem. The four horse is ahead of the Two throughout most of the race, so I eliminate the Two. I eliminate the Three and Eight, because the are slower than today’s pace. This Leaves me with the Four and Five. The "Power Lne" for the Five is from a one turn mile, which is hard for me to use. The One horse’s pace of 110.4 is equal to the 110.4 on the Five and should be ahead of him. "Power Moves" are moves that horses make during the race that show the can over take other horse. Many horses shows more than " power move" during a race. (Example 9-4-1-1.) The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths. Although, I like better "Power Moves" the race is longer today and the Four horse should win the race and reverse the Tandem. |
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"The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths." You have the race down to two horses. You are now comparing their "power moves." Doesn't the five have a better power move? Isn't the five going from 3rd to 1st and gaining even more lengths? |
Rich/Jim:
In an honest effort to try and understand the final analysis and win selection for the race in question and as it relates to the “power move” I would like to offer you my thinking and please tell me if and where I am wrong. I can not see directly from the power/pace lines chosen how the 4 horse is better then the 5 horse outright. But, as to the Match Up, if the 5 horse goes after the race pace horse (#1) as he should by the half mile of the race (being that he is an early presser) he should be negatively affecting his ability to finish. That is the #1 pace horse is faster to the ½-mile then the #5 horse and the later will be using himself up trying to catch him. In the mean time the #4 horse whom has shown ability to come off the pace while making a power move against today’s projected half mile of 110.4 will just blow right by the #5 horse who would probably still have an in the money finish. Even if I am so lucky to be somewhat right as to my above thinking on this subject I have no confidence that I could think so clearly cold. Jim mentioned as he explained the “Power Move” for the #4 horse that he usually likes better “power moves” but since the horse was stretching out in today’s race that he should win. If possible can we have an example of a preferred type of “Power Move?” The preferred type of power move can then be used as a model of what to look for while also providing some guidance in which way it can best be shaded to accept something like the # 4 horse had. Thanks to you and “The Hat” for all that has been graciously offered already, Robert |
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You just described basically how Jim himself did the race with me before it ran that day "Mu". He saw the 1:10.4 for the 1 turn mile on the 5 and told me quickly the 1 is a faster horse running the 1:10.4 around 2 turns. You just said the same thing. This thread is not done yet. We need to look at more Power Lines and Power Moves ok? PATTERN RECOGNITION. That is Jim Bradshaw's Matchup. |
Very little or No Adjustments
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Well thanks Rich. I was just lucky and in any case everything was handed to us as to what power lines to use initially, appropriate analysis, evaluation of early/late, the only remaining contenders to consider, and the projected pace of the race. I know as of now I could never do a race like that from scratch but would like to think that I can learn to at some time in the near future.
You are right we need more practice with recognizing solid Power lines and especially Power Moves and as you also say it is all about pattern recognition. I look forward to continuing on this learning path towards someday being able to confidently use the Match Up Methodology as a sole source for selection or at least be competent enough to us it as a very good tool in evaluating the top contenders in today’s race. As to Power Lines vs. Power Moves it is obvious that many times they are one and the same or perhaps as to evaluation they must be used as one. That is you can not pick a power line to establish the race contenders and another pace line, the Power Move to evaluate any remaining contenders after early/late has been established? I am guessing or thinking out loud here since it seems that it should really depend on the projected pace for today as to what Power Line to use (so it sounds like I have just contradicted myself). The Match Up Methodology is such an interesting way to handicap a race. It seems that once you have truly learned how to use it that you have this insight as to not only who is going to win but exactly how. Software programs can not do this for me; they in fact remove me from the flow/feel of the race. Thanks, Robert |
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We HAVE to match with our minds QUIET Voodoo Fan. We HAVE to match with our minds QUIET. Jim does it ALL THE TIME guys. Phone is so SILENT on the other end (3-4 minutes) I always think I am disconnected. I am dead serious. The "Voodoo" he does and what we as beginning matchers aspire to do comes from a QUIET and RELAXED mind. |
Hi Richie. Another example would be great. This seems to make us look at a race more deeper than before. This is very good way to learn the matchup because most of us know how to find the Lone Early horses but most of us don't know how to find the OTE. At some tracks 65% or more horses win as OTE. This will help us pick more winners OTE and at good prices.
Since I usually play only the Lone Earlies this is new ground for me and it is very interesting. And in the future will probably be very rewarding because the public usually does not see these types o winners. emilio |
Voodoo and the Power Move/ Power Line
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Assumed - The lines showing are the right lines to match the horses for this race.
The 3 horse wins the race and pays a nice $11.00 ticket. 1) LOOK at the matching earlies at the 1st call for the 6,7,8. There is this SPOT PLAY again ok? ;) 2) The winning 3 also shows his last race running early with the same time but LOOK at his POWER LINE taken from Aqueduct against a 22.1 - 45.4 WINS running other than early with POSITIONS of 5-3-1-1. So he CAN run other than early and WIN. RELAX Look at this first screenshot |
Voodoo and the Power Move/ Power Line - con't
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this screenshot shows the 3 matching earlies(6,7,8) removed as well as the
3's power line from Aqueduct. This way we have the remaining contenders all matched using Ct bullring lines. Time for a bit of Voodoo ok? 1) The LAST line for the winning 3 shows us he CAN handle the 23.3( 23.7 in tenths shown) FIRST CALL. Let's look at the screenshot now |
Voodoo and the Power Move/ Power Line - con't
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This screenshot I removed the early last line for the 3 horse.
But we REMEMBER the 23.3 projected 1st call for today CAN be handled by the 3. We are now down to 3 other than early contenders. ALL 3 have a POWER MOVE in their pp line man! ALL 3 are fast! We want the one who MOVES FIRST toward the lead. 1) Eliminate the 5 horse. He shows POSITIONS 7-7-4-1. MOVES too late compared to others. OUT |
Voodoo and the Power Move/ Power Line - con't
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Now down to 2 contenders after removing the 5.
Time for a little Voodoo. The 3 shows 2 lines. The POWER MOVE 4-1 from 1c to 2c comes from the 6.5 line. But the 1st call in that race is a 24.0 and we project a 23.3 right? No problem. Because we KNOW that the horse CAN handle the proj pace we "Voodoo" the 2 lines showing. 1) Use the pace of race from top line on the 3 23.3- 47.4 - 114.4 2) Use the POSITIONS and POWER MOVE from the 6.5f line 4-1-2 3) COMBINE THEM and make a VOODOO line. Horse 3 - 23.3 - 47.4 - 114.4 Positions 4-1-2 Horse 4 - 23.3 - 48.1 - 115.0 Positions 4-4-1 WHO is ahead of the other? WHO makes the POWER MOVE first? THAT is our BET. THIS is Jim Bradshaw's Matchup guys. THIS is how HE "Voodoo's" lines when I work races with him ok? He does this ALL the time man. This is the Hat's way of Matching horses. YOU can do this. More to come. |
Voodoo and the Power Move/ Power Line - con't
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the result chart.
While the 3 wins running wire to wire we don't know this BEFORE the race runs. We cap them from the past performances! |
Wow Rich. I guess you must know that you and “The Hat” have given us and the internet world some valuable material on a seemingly simply but powerfully handicapping method, and with no computer programs necessary. I own and have read both of “The Hat’s” Match Up books and this information ties it all together now. No adjustment or Par tables or variant concerns needed. Just use the horses’ information of past performances to get you home to the winners circle.
I wonder if you or “The Hat,” especially JB ever thought about an advanced Match Up book or an E-book that can be sold by JB for profit or to be donated to his favorite charity or interest. This is great stuff and anyone who has read any of the Match Up books will surely appreciate this important final connection that now ties everything together so clearly. The Match Up books and all of the post by you and JB on the Match Up on this site have contributed greatly to the understanding and I am confident successful future use of the Match Up Methodology in my handicapping endeavors. I will be forever grateful. Thanks, Robert |
Deja Vous all over again. Power Move
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From yesterday at the Spa.
Once AGAIN 3 matching earlies SPOT PLAY. This time on the grass sprinting. Screenshot of initial "Look" |
Deja Vous all over again. Power Move
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Removed the 3 earlies for this shot leaves 2 contenders for the win.
Things I noticed quickly: 1) The pace of race 1c and 2c are respectively 3 ticks and 1 tick FASTER on the 8 horse matched against the 9 horse. 8 horse - 22.0- 45.3 - 57.3 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 so on the first 2 calls we have 4 tick advantage on the 8 to work with. 2) While the 8 lost a position and 1/2 beaten length 1c to 2c to me it "looked" like there probably was a crowd of horses there bunched together. He then seperates from the crowd with an awesome POWER MOVE going 7-2 from 2c to stretch call. screenshot |
Deja Vous all over again. Power Move
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Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer.
so regarding the 8 can we legitimately put him running well CLOSER to the lead from his pp's? Here are the pp's and the answer without question is YES. look at the line from 149 days back. 22.2 - 45.2 runs and WINS wire to wire! screenshot |
Deja Vous all over again. Power Move
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so now we CAN alter or "Voodoo" # 8's line from Belmont turf by placing him 1 position closer for every 5th of a second he is faster pace of race wise.
he has 3 tick edge 1c over the 9. he has 1 tick edge 2c over the 9. So his original pace of race and positions are 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions - 6-7-2-2 we will now subtract 3 positions starting at the 1st call based on his pace of race edge. so the 6 becomes 3. now he loses a position during the actual pp line but gets it back for the additional 1 tick edge over the 9 at the 2nd call. so if his new "Voodoo" position at 1c is 3 instead of losing a position (to 4) he maintains position based on his pace of race edge. so now he is 3-3. we have 3-3 now as the 8's 1st 2 calls. his original line shows a 4 position gain 2c-sc. so when we give him that now he rockets to the lead at the sc. 3-3-1 is new positions Did I lose you? This is some heavy **** man BUT with some practice we can grasp some of this. so now we have 8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2 Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet. Result chart of the race. Richie PS - to keep things real this was my betting on the card yesterday at the Spa Race 1) bet the 3 - leading in mid stretch - breaks down - Loss Race 2) Pass 2 yr old fts Race 3) bet the 1. Gets killed. Loss . Hat LOVED the winner at 15.20 btw Race 4) bet the 8. Win $14.80 Race 5) bet the 8. has the lead deep stretch and gets nailed by the rat 11. Runs 2nd. Loss Race 6) bet the 4. Loved the horse. takes the lead deep stretch and gets nailed late by the 1 who is impossible for me to see. Runs 2nd.Loss. Races 7-8-9-10 Passed. Life gets in the way. total bet 10.00 total ret 14.80 1 for 5 with a breakdown and 2 seconds. |
Rich, just when I thought you have given us so much already you come back again with another big time WOW:
[Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer. so now we have 8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2 Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet.] This is truly great stuff and while I know I have to practice allot to get comfortably confident with all of this new material your clear demonstration of the methodology in action has greased the wheels towards my expected early success. Thanks, Robert |
The Real Stuff
That was a great set of examples , Richie. Almost poetic, musical. Like the way you showing your real results, good and bad. Very high integrety and humility....keys to mastering the MatchUp "Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw" style. The New MatchUp Guy is the Real *****in DEAL....our version of "Tom Brohamer" of illustrating the MatchUp...(without the trainer, jockey, sire, par,etc,.), maybe better. Such vivid illustrations, one can almost see the horses running. You're gonna get better, Richie. Once you master all the patterns, then learn the "minute" variations within set patterns. You'll get better because while you are not allowed to look back on races lost, when Mr. Bradshaw wins a race and you lost it, he can recognize things you missed and can focus on those things you need to improve. And your improvement is our improvement. Don't forget to bring an apple to the teacher before class. Great Job. Excellent. VoodooFan
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Hi Richie. I just want to make sure that I got everything right. At the Spa I bet the #8 to win too. But, the reason that I came up with that winner is because 1) I threw all the horses that did not have a TURF LINE (this included the fast early #5 that showed he wired the field at 21.4 44.1 109.2)
2) I threw the Early turf horses because I projected it was going to run OTE. And than I match the 8 and he was the best of the rest. My question is should we throw out Dirt horses when they run on the Turf. In this situation it worked out well for me. Or else I would have bet the #5 because he was faster than any other horse in that field. emilio |
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I worked that race exactly as you described. That big power move 7-2 from 2c-sc and the faster pace of race than what was projected sealed the deal for me. Regarding dirt horses in turf races Jim taught me to NOT make any rule but instead go by "feel" or intuition and deal with them on a race to race basis ok? Sometimes we are gonna be right and sometimes we are wrong. Emilio while this requires some patience and discipline I think it is something for you to consider. You have posted you are focusing and betting almost exclusively "early" races. CONSIDER watching for OTE races with proven matching earlies that can be tossed. Look to the OTE for the win just like you did in THIS race man.That was GREAT WORK man! Now you have another "weapon" in your wagering arsenal right? One that you will see produces consitently GOOD win prices. By FAR my favorite SPOT PLAY. Richie |
You know Rich the new advanced Match Up material you have given us today is not only great stuff for OTE races but I am thinking it can also be used effectively in early races also whenever there are more then one early who are closely matched.
Robert |
Whew!
I need a smoke:D THAT was good stuff......hats off to Richie for an excellant presentation of the match up! |
Make the call
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Assumed - These are the right lines to match the horses for this race.
Make the call. "Hat Helper's" a) Power Moves b) ability to "get on top" of fractions from previous races I will post the result chart tomorrow morning.This track is QUICKLY becoming my favorite. Surpassing even Mountaineer. |
Rich:
The # 4 horse is taking the lead (if these are the only contenders) seemingly as the lone early. But, based on our most recent learned information, the #2 horse will collar it at the ½-mile and proceed onward to win the race. The #2 horse shows greater speed in each call of its sprint race call times (1/4, ½, 3rd fraction) and shows a sustained “Power Move” picking up position to the finish and even picking up lengths into the stretch on the leader (extra credit). Since it shows that it can run a faster ¼ and half mile one can adjust the given race’s position to show that it will be first to the ½ mile when comparing directly the #4 and #2 (I say half mile because it is designated as a sustained presser). In addition, it looks like in the second race back the #2 horse was a little short (since it did not win) so the trainer entered the horse in a route race in which the horse again showed a Power Move to the top of the stretch and again against faster call times in which it picked up both positions and lengths on the leader. I say the #2 over the #4 with the # 4 maybe or most likely hanging on for second place money. You know Rich even if I am not right here it is surely much more fun when one tries to handicap in this way. You just have to make the time to do the proper analysis or get so good (as “The Hat”) to do this within minutes Thanks, Robert |
Hi Richie. What I see here is that the #2 has a route line that is faster than all the sprinters. And His sprint line also is much faster than all the other sprinters. So, what we have is a ROUTER that is running with SLOW sprinters.
emilio |
Make the call - Result Chart
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Here is the result. Good work on a runaway BOMB winner
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Repeating Pattern
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LOOK at the result chart please. Who went off the 6/5 heavy favorite who I did NOT even have as a contender??
The 5 horse right? Remember the post about Jim saying to watch out for horses who a) can not get on top of fractions they could previous b) have changed their running style and become a SLOW horse. Remember the horse shown who went off the chalk and did nothing in that race? Well here are the FULL pp's for the 5 in THIS race. LOOK. Same pattern of changing style,becoming SLOW and going NOWHERE! LOOK please. Check the 3 lines I have marked to the left ok? See it? Deja voux all over again in my opinion. Unreal How do we recognize these guys? 1) By LOOKING for them 2) Practice This is Jim Bradshaw's Matchup |
Hat Helpers helps
That is a great definition and bullet points, "Hat Helper's". Based on the "Hat Helper's", looked like you can just "throw out" horses before getting to the nitty gritty of the MatchUp. The 4 "used" to be a Early fighter, but has turned into a "quitter", having an "easy" lead but getting headed at a much slower call-failed according to "Hat Helper (b)". The 3 was next "position" horse and seemed to be consistant. The 7 "would" be the next position horse, but he failed ,miserably,going from 4th to 8th, running way worse, at much slower time with no excuse, according to "Hat Helper(b). The 2 and the 3 were the most consistant, and the 3 on his best line could'nt MatchUp with 2 on any track, at any continent, on any planet in the solar system. Looked like the 2 and the 3 were the Match. "Hat Helper's"= great summary and simplified reminder for The Power Line, Power Move tools. Pulling a "rabbit" out of a "cowboy" hat has re-defined magic as a technology.The Sorcerer's protege is definetly impressive.VoodooFan
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Make the call - cont
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now here are the WINNER'S full pp's.
WHY did I IGNORE the Ct routes? Because they are around THREE(3) turns. Today's race is 2 turns. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why did I INCLUDE the Pha route? Because that is around TWO (2) turns,same as today's race. You can even use the Penn route above it around 2 turns and he stands out man. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here we have a POWER LINE deep in the horse's past performances. Here it makes sense to consider it. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THREE(3) lines make this beast a standout. THREE(3) lines show if we are right he blows the field away. He wins by FIVE(5) LENGTHS in a complete blowout at 11/1 Hat's matchup gets some big payers along with the shorter ones. |
Quote[In addition, it looks like in the second race back the #2 horse was a little short (since it did not win) so the trainer entered the horse in a route race in which the horse again showed a Power Move to the top of the stretch and again against faster call times in which it picked up both positions and lengths on the leader.]End of quote
Big mistake as to thinking route race was following the very good sprint race. Still I would say the route race by itself was enough reason to pick #2 as a win contender because of the super fast (by comparison) of the 22.2 first call against a projected race first call of 24. More importantly there was that sustained Power Move from the start of the race to the top of the stretch, picking up both positions and lengths on the leader. Rich I am thinking you and “The Hat” would still have picked the #2 as your win contender even if it did not have that nice 6.5F race deep in the PP’s. Robert |
Hi Richie. I assumed that there were 2 or 3 early horses that you threw out and than you started looking for OTE. And the #2 is the fastest of the other horses.
emilio |
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When I started working races with Hat I would select a horse. Then after "looking around" a lot of times I would change the pick to someone else. I can't tell you how many times the ORIGINAL horse won the race and Hat would say to me " why the hell did you change Rich? You had the horse and let him go. WHY?" Almost all the time I started "seeing things" that were not really there ok? Hat told me "Rich trust your first instinct about what you are looking at. Do NOT second guess yourself with the Matchup". I listened and now NEVER look back or 2nd guess. If I am right I cash. If I am wrong I lose and MOVE ON. Why am I posting this NOW? Because I "feel" that is something you guys and others struggle with ok? You saw the screenshots. You made the WINNING call. Yet after the result is shown the 2nd guessing/questions start. If I was doing a race with 3 matching earlies I would NOT have left the 4 in the screenshot. Follow? You WON the race. FOCUS on the screenshot(YES you do look back on WINNING races) That pattern shown will repeat itself MANY times. MANY times. Learn from MY mistakes. Trust your first "reaction/call" in a race. Accept it. Don't question it. Move on win or lose. Do NOT look back on LOSING races. Take care, Richie |
Rich:
I was not intending to second guess as to my statement “Rich I am thinking you and “The Hat” would still have picked the #2 as your win contender even if it did not have that nice 6.5F race deep in the PP’s.” I definitely agree with you as to second-guessing before or after the race. I am guilty of that and like you have seen the winner come out as the horse I had changed my mind on too many times in the past. I did the race in question at work with the information given and solely with the mindset of the “MU.” I think I would have picked the #2 assuming all else was the same (same power lines) even if there had been no 6.5F race in the far off past, especially since the odds were so inviting. Like I have said before I really enjoy trying to use MU and am honestly trying to get into this MU Methodology as the basis of my handicapping approach. I picked Lawyer Ron yesterday mostly on the basis of the MU even though he came up 2nd to the top on some of the software programs I use but it was my thinking on MU that made me feel confident go with just him. Today in the BcrosbyH I have used strictly my thinking on the MU to select the #2 and #4 but mostly the #4 as my preference to win the race. This is strictly on what you have thought us during the past week and my thinking on it. I have not downloaded any Trackmaster data today so this is all MU thinking. So win or lose I intend to do an exacta box on 234 and no more since today is family day. Thanks to you and “The Hat” for all that has been graciously offered to date and my stimulated commitment to this methodology, Robert (MU) |
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